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  • CMP : 1,233.5 Chg : -1.10 (-0.09%)
  • Target : 22,400.0 (13.13%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

19 Oct 2022

Splendid volume growth; margins to recover in CY23

About The Stock

Nestlé India (NIL) is the largest food company in India with over
₹ 14000 crore of sales. It is broadly present in infant & baby food products, noodles, chocolates & beverage categories. In the last five years, the company has forayed into newer categories and launched more than 100 new products.

  • The company has nine manufacturing facilities including newly commissioned plant in Sanand, Gujarat. Its major brands include Maggi, Nescafe, KitKat, Cerelac among others
Q3CY22 Results

Nestlé India reported strong sales growth and a dip in margins.

  • Sales were up 18.2% YoY led by mix of price hike & volume growth
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 1010.7 crore, up 6.6% YoY with margins at 22%
  • PAT was at ₹ 668.3 crore (up 8.2% YoY) impacted by margin contraction
What should Investors do?

Nestlé India’s share price has given return of 176% in the last five years (from ₹ 7170 in October 2017 to ₹ 19800 in October 2022).

  • We slightly increase our revenue & earnings estimates for CY22-24 on the back of expected volume recovery with softening of RM costs
  • We continue to maintain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

 We value the stock at ₹ 22400, valuing the business 65x CY24 earnings 

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • The company is undertaking a capex of ₹ 2600 crore in the next three to four years to expand the capacity of its existing products
  • NIL is increasing its rural footprint from 80,000 villages to 1.2 lakh villages in the next three years
  • With the softening of commodity prices, the packaged foods category & in turn NIL is expected to witness strong volume growth. Further margins are expected to inch up to above 24% in CY23 and CY24
  • Acquisition of pet-food brand PURINA & introduction of global brand ‘GERBER’ in the nutrition segment would increase the addressable market in the premium food space
Alternate Stock Idea

We like Tata Consumer Products in our FMCG coverage.

  • Strong innovation & premiumisation strategy in salt, tea, Sampaan & Soulful in India market is expected to drive sales and margins
  • We value the stock at ₹ 950 on ascribing 55x FY24 earnings multiple

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials CY19 CY20 CY21 5 Year CAGR (CY16-CY21) CY22E CY23E CY24E CAGR (CY21-24E)
Net Sales 12,295.3 13,290.2 14,633.7 9.2 16,709.1 18,456.2 20,349.3 11.6
EBITDA 2,864.3 3,201.5 3,591.5 11.7 3,729.7 4,445.4 5,091.0 12.3
EBITDA Margin % 23.3 24.1 24.5 - 22.3 24.1 25.0 -
Adjusted Net Profit 1,969.6 2,082.4 2,320.8 18.3 2,466.2 2,903.6 3,328.8 12.8
Adjusted EPS (|) 204.3 216.0 240.7 18.3 255.8 301.1 345.2 12.8
P/E 96.9 91.7 89.0 - 77.4 65.7 57.4 -
RoNW % 101.9 103.1 111.3 - 103.6 110.3 117.7 -
RoCE (%) 56.9 54.6 58.7 - 57.1 63.0 68.9 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q3CY22 Results: Robust growth mix of volume & prices; margins to inch up in CY23

  • Revenue witnessed strong growth of 18.2% to | 4591 crore led by Maggi noodles, Milkmaid & Nescafe classic. The growth was contributed by mix of price & volume growth. The growth has been double digit across categories

 

  • Domestic sales grew 18.3% while export sales were up 15.7% driven by expansion in newer markets contributed by Maggi noodles and confectionary segment

 

  • NIL is witnessing robust growth in metros & mega cities. Moreover, increasing penetration in rural regions is also benefiting the growth in core categories

 

  • The growth was aided by higher ad-spends & distribution expansion. Out of this, home channels saw strong growth on the relatively lower sales in base quarter. Further, e-commerce channel continues to see robust growth through quick commerce and click & mortar models. E-commerce is now contributing 7.2% of total sales (in Q3CY23)

 

  • Maggi noodles robust growth was aided by high media spends & distribution expansion. Within milk product category, Milkmaid saw strong growth. Chocolate business also saw strong performance driven by festive executions, consumer promotions & focused distribution. The growth was also strong in Nescafe classic, Sunrise & vending mixes

 

  • Given most FMCG companies were holding high cost inventories, gross margin continues to remain under pressure with 292 bps contraction. The sharp correction in edible oils & crude related packaging costs would be reflected from Q4CY22 onwards. Milk, grains, green coffee prices continue to remain elevated

 

  • Employee spends were down 90 bps (as percentage of sales) during the quarter. Overhead spend was slightly up 29 bps mainly on account of high fuel costs. Operating profit grew 6.6% to |1010.7 crore. Operating margin was down 242 bps to 22%. Net profit grew 8.2% to | 668.3 crore

 

  • The company declared a second interim dividend of | 120/share. This is in addition to the first interim dividend of | 25/ share

  • NIL has launched its own D2C platform ‘www.mynestle.in’ in Delhi NCR. It would be expanded to other parts of the country

Disclaimer

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