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NCC Ltd>
  • CMP : 242.2 Chg : -3.80 (-1.54%)
  • Target : 120.0 (27.66%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

10 Feb 2023

Strong execution, margin recovery…

About The Stock

NCC is one of the leading construction companies in India with a presence across varied verticals of the infrastructure space like buildings, roads, water, mining and electrical. Consolidated order book is robust at ₹ 41,860 crore.

  • Well-diversified order backlog, robust execution capabilities and strong focus on debt reduction and working capital to characterise NCC in the next few years
Q3FY23

NCC’s performance was marked by superior execution and margin recovery.

  • Standalone revenue improved 22.5% YoY to ₹ 3,312.7 crore
  • Operating margin was at 10.5% (up 92 bps QoQ, down 30 bps YoY), driven by operating leverage and softening of RM costs. Effectively, EBITDA at
    ₹ 348.8 crore, was up 19% YoY
  • At the net level, strong operating performance translated into 65% YoY growth in PAT (to ₹ 149.9 crore)
What should Investors do?

NCC’s share price has de-grown by 25% over the past five years (from ~₹ 125 in February, 2018 to ~₹ 94 levels currently).

  • Strong execution and management guidance of continued traction along with margin improvement prompts us to raise our earnings estimates and maintain BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value NCC at ₹ 120/share (at 10x FY25 P/E).

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Firmly placed to capitalise on huge infrastructure pipeline; continued momentum in awarding activities to translate into healthy order inflows
  • Strong order book to ensure topline growth (17.6% CAGR over FY22-25E) with margins improving to 10.5%
  • Focus on monetisation of non-core subsidiaries to bring-in cash flows
  • Unwinding of receivables to provide liquidity boost; strengthening of balance sheet likely with gradual decline in debt
New Stock Ideas

Besides NCC, we like PSP Projects in infra space.

  • Quality play on building segment with strong execution and balance sheet
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 820/share

Key Financial Summary

| crore FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 8,218.8 7,256.0 9,930.0 4.7 13,032.7 14,630.3 16,142.4 17.6
EBITDA 1,030.2 855.4 996.1 7.8 1,298.2 1,530.5 1,695.5 19.4
EBITDA Margin (%) 12.5 11.8 10.0 - 10.0 10.5 10.5 -
Adj. PAT 414.7 261.5 344.5 8.8 548.9 668.9 767.5 30.6
Adj. EPS (|) 6.8 4.3 5.6 - 8.7 10.7 12.2 -
P/E (x) 15.0 21.9 11.7 - 10.7 8.8 7.7 -
EV/EBITDA(x) 7.1 8.3 6.4 - 5.6 4.8 4.2 -
RoNW (%) 8.1 4.9 5.9 - 8.8 9.9 10.4 -
RoCE (%) 14.7 11.2 13.3 - 15.8 16.7 17.1 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key performance highlight and outlook

Strong order book to drive revenues ahead

NCC’s order book at the end of Q3FY23 on a standalone basis was at an elevated level of | 39,863 crore (3.2x order book to TTM bill ratio), largely aided by | 12,612 crore worth of orders secured in 9MFY23. It further has L1 order of ~| 3000 crore. Additionally, the company has secured orders worth | 1755 crore in January 2023, in electrical. Going forward, the management expects the gained momentum in the order inflows to continue with its strong emphasis on a) buildings: affordable housing, b) water: higher traction being witnessed in Jal Jeevan mission, c) roads and expressways, d) metro and railways and e) mining segments. Overall, the management believes ~| 20,000 crore of order inflows during FY23, is a possibility, with ~| 17300+ crore worth orders already received, including L1 till date. In terms of execution, the company has maintained its topline guidance at ~30% YoY growth during FY23 to be driven by a) higher executable order book and b) pick-up in execution with 100% operating efficiency. Further, the margins are likely to improve (20-30 bps in Q4), given the benign raw material prices.

Debt reduction seen…

NCC’s standalone debt during Q3FY23 has declined by ~| 39 crore on a QoQ basis to | 1,946 crore, given the improved collection momentum. Going forward, the company expects its debt to reduce to ~| 1,600-1700 crore by FY23-end, partly aided by higher profitability and improved collections. Further, receipt of money from NCC Urban monetisation would help in debt reduction, ahead.

Other highlights

  • Jal Jeevan mission projects execution is robust and the company has completed 25% of the work order till date. It expects strong execution of ~| 800 crore in Q4FY23
  • Andhra Pradesh contributes | 5000 crore currently to the overall order book. All of the projects are moving. Additionally, the amount collected in Q3 from APT Capital City project is about ~| 60 crore The net amount outstanding from the stuck project has come down from | 107 crore to | 64 crore after adjusting the mobilisation advance
  • NCC had entered into a share purchase agreement with GRPL Housing Pvt Ltd to sell its entire shareholding in NCC Vizag Urban Infrastructure Ltd (a subsidiary company; equity investment: ~| 50 crore; loans and advances: | 308 crore). The total equity consideration was at | 199.5 crore (to be paid in four instalments). Out of these, it has received first payment of | 47.5 crore during Q4FY22, while balance second, third and fourth instalments are likely to get released during December 2022, March 2023 and H1FY24, respectively. However, the December, 2022 tranche was delayed and the company now expects to receive it soon, which should lead to further debt reduction
  • The company has incurred capex of | 95 crore in Q3 (~| 243 crore in 9MFY23) and expects to spend another ~| 30-40 crore towards capex during Q4
  • Prompt payments from various central government authorities and collection of old dues are aiding improvements in the overall working cycle. As on Q3FY22-end, total receivables for NCC was at | 2,675 crore (collection period: 91 days; vs. 97 days at FY22-end)
  • As per the management, SembCorp arbitration proceedings are expected to conclude in 1-1.5 months. The company expects final judgement by June, 2023

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Bhupendra Tiwary, CFA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

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Pankaj Pandey

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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