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  • CMP : 155.9 Chg : 2.84 (1.86%)
  • Target : 90.0 (25.0%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

10 Nov 2022

Strong execution in Q2; to remain robust ahead...

About The Stock

NCC is one of the leading construction companies in India with presence across varied verticals of infrastructure space such as buildings, roads, water, mining and electrical. Standalone order book is robust at ₹ 40,020 crore.

  • Well-diversified order backlog, robust execution capabilities, and strong focus on debt reduction and working capital to outline NCC over next few years.
Q2FY23 Results

NCC’s performance was marked by superior execution

  • Standalone revenue improved 36.6% YoY to ₹ 3,003.7 crore backed by its strong order book position and pick-up in execution
  • Operating margin was at 9.6% (down 115 bps YoY) with impact of higher raw material prices. Effectively, EBITDA at ₹ 288.2 crore, was up 22.1% YoY.
  • Reported PAT improved 16.8% YoY to ₹ 121.8 crore. However, adjusted to exceptional item in Q2 FY22, PAT improved 66.6% on YoY basis
What should Investors do?

NCC’s share price has de-grown by 30% over the past five years (from ~₹ 103 in November 2017 to ~₹ 72 levels in November 2021)

  • Strong execution and management guidance of continued traction along with margins improvement prompts us to raise our earnings estimates and upgrade to BUY from HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value NCC at ₹ 90/share (at 10x FY24 P/E)

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Firmly placed to capitalise on huge Infrastructure pipeline; continued momentum in awarding activities to translate into healthy order inflows
  • Strong order book to ensure topline growth (15.4% CAGR over FY22-24E) with margins stable at ~10%
  • Focus on monetisation of non-core subsidiaries to bring-in cash flows
  • Unwinding of receivables to provide liquidity boost; strengthening of balance sheet likely with gradual decline in debt
Alternate Stock Idea

Besides NCC, we like PSP Projects in Infra space

  • Quality play on building segment with strong execution/robust balance sheet
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 720/share

Key Financial Summary

| crore FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 12,079.8 8,218.8 7,256.0 9,930.0 4.7 12,552.7 13,956.3 18.6
EBITDA 1,423.0 1,030.2 855.4 996.1 7.8 1,225.3 1,390.2 18.1
EBITDA Margin (%) 11.8 12.5 11.8 10.0 - 9.8 10.0 -
Adj. PAT 563.9 414.7 261.5 344.5 8.8 483.3 588.6 30.7
Adj. EPS (|) 9.4 6.8 4.3 5.6 - 7.7 9.4 -
P/E (x) 7.7 11.5 16.8 9.0 - 9.4 7.7 -
EV/EBITDA(x) 4.3 5.8 6.7 5.0 - 4.7 4.2 -
RoNW (%) 13.1 8.1 4.9 5.9 - 7.8 8.8 -
RoCE (%) 21.2 14.7 11.2 13.3 - 14.9 15.8 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key business highlight and outlook

Strong order book to drive revenues ahead

NCC’s order book at the end of Q2 FY22 on the standalone basis stood at an elevated level of | 40,020 crore (3.4x order book to TTM bill ratio), largely aided by | 7,117 crore worth of orders secured in H1 FY23. Additionally, the company has secured orders worth | 1,377 crore post September 2022 (spread across a) water division, Gujarat and Orissa state: | 1,056 crore and b) electrical vertical: | 321 crore). Going forward, the management expects the gained momentum in the order inflows to continue with its strong emphasis on a) buildings: affordable housing, b) water: higher traction being witnessed in Jal Jeevan mission, c) roads and expressways, d) metro and railways and e) mining segments. Overall, the management has guided for ~|16,000 crore of order inflows during FY23. In terms of execution, the company has revised their topline guidance upwards to ~30% YoY growth during FY23 (vs earlier guidance of 15-20% growth; 45.7% YOY growth reported in H1 FY23) to be driven by a) higher executable order book and b) pick-up in execution with 100% operating efficiency. Further, the company intends to attain margins of 10% in FY23, with improvement of ~40 bps from current levels led by benign raw material prices.

Debt rising with execution pick-up; to hover at current levels

NCC’s standalone debt during Q2FY23 has inched up by ~| 278 crore on QoQ basis to | 1,985 crore, given the higher working capital draw down on accelerated execution. Going forward, the company expects its debt to reduce to | ~1,500 crore by FY23-end, partly to be aided by higher profitability and better cash flows management. Further, receipt of money from NCC Urban monetisation would help in debt reduction, ahead.

Other highlights

  • NCC has received order inflows of | 7,117 crore during H1 FY23 wherein key projects secured are a) HLL Infratech services (building project to be funded by Central government): | 946 crore, b) Water division, Orissa: | 910 crore, c) building project from PWD, Guwahati: | 393 crore.
  • Andhra Pradesh contributes | 3,153 crore currently to the overall order book. Additionally, NCC has managed to collect | 202 crore during H1 FY23 from the state government. Further, the company has received | 34 crore during October 2022 and expects most of its pending dues (| 150-200 crore from older projects) to get cleared over the near-term.
  • Cost of borrowings for NCC during H1 FY23 has increased merely by ~10 bps (to 8.7%) despite repo rate hike of 190 bps in the mentioned period. The management, however, expects 35-40 bps hike in NCC’s cost of borrowing with full impact of repo rate hike coming over the near term.
  • NCC has entered into a Share Purchase Agreement with GRPL Housing Pvt Ltd to sell its entire shareholding in NCC Vizag Urban Infrastructure Ltd (a subsidiary company; equity investment: ~| 50 crore; loans and advances: | 308 crore). The total equity consideration stands at | 199.5 crore (to be paid in 4 instalments). Out of these, the company has received 1st payment of | 47.5 crore during Q4 FY22, while balance 2nd, 3rd and 4th instalments are likely to get released during December 2022, and March 2023 and H1 FY24 respectively. Similarly, the company expects the loan amounts (| 320 crore) to get released by March 2024. The funds are likely to be used for working capital requirements and reduce the company’s outstanding debt
  • The company has incurred capex of | 56 crore, | 93 crore during Q1 FY23, Q2 FY23 respectively and expects to spend another ~| 75 crore towards capex during H2 FY23.
  • Prompt payments from various central government authorities and collection of old dues are aiding improvements in the overall working cycle. As on Q2 FY22-end, total receivables for NCC stands at | 2,792 crore (collection period: 95 days; vs 97 days at FY22-end).

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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