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  • CMP : 155.9 Chg : 2.84 (1.86%)
  • Target : 75.0 (13.64%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

11 Aug 2022

Strong execution boosts revenues growth...

About The Stock

NCC is one of the leading construction companies in India with a presence across varied verticals of infrastructure space such as buildings, roads, water, mining and electrical. Standalone order book is robust at ₹ 37.838 crore.

Well-diversified order backlog, robust execution capabilities, and strong focus on debt reduction and working capital to characterise NCC over next few years.

Q1FY23 Results:

NCC’s strong performance was led by superior execution

  • Standalone revenue improved 56.3% YoY to ₹ 2,958.6 crore backed by its strong order book position and pick-up in execution
  • Operating margin stood at 9.5% (down 105 bps YoY) with impact of higher raw material prices. Effectively, EBITDA at ₹ 281.2 crore, was up 40.8% YoY.
  • PAT at ₹ 120 crore, was up 132.1% YoY growth in aided by healthy operating performance, and benign depreciation and interest expenses
What should Investors do?

NCC’s share price has de-grown by 20% over the past five years (from ~₹ 83 in August 2017 to ~₹ 66 levels in August 2022).

  • While strong execution traction is a positive surprise, we await stability in margins and consistency in leverage management. We, thus, maintain HOLD rating on the stock.
Target Price and Valuation

We value NCC at ₹ 75/share (at (9x FY24 P/E)

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Firmly placed to capitalise on huge infrastructure pipeline; continued momentum in awarding activities to translate into healthy order inflows
  • Expect ~13% revenue CAGR over FY22-24E with margins at 10%
  • Focus on monetisation of non-core subsidiaries to bring-in cash flows
  • Unwinding of receivables to provide liquidity boost; strengthening of balance sheet likely with gradual decline in debt
Alternate Stock Idea

Besides NCC, we like HG Infra Engineering in the infra space.

  • Quality play on segment with strong execution/robust balance sheet
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 765/share

Key Financial Summary

| crore FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 12,079.8 8,218.8 7,256.0 9,930.0 4.7 11,543.2 12,696.7 13.1
EBITDA 1,423.0 1,030.2 855.4 996.1 7.8 1,157.9 1,270.0 12.9
EBITDA Margin (%) 11.8 12.5 11.8 10.0 - 10.0 10.0 -
Adj. PAT 563.9 414.7 261.5 344.5 8.8 443.0 511.3 21.8
Adj. EPS (|) 9.4 6.8 4.3 5.6 - 7.1 8.1 -
P/E (x) 7.1 10.6 15.5 8.2 - 9.4 8.1 -
EV/EBITDA(x) 4.1 5.6 6.4 4.8 - 4.7 4.3 -
RoNW (%) 13.1 8.1 4.9 5.9 - 7.2 7.8 -
RoCE (%) 21.2 14.7 11.2 13.3 - 14.1 14.5 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key business highlight and outlook

Strong order book

NCC’s order book at the end of Q1FY23 on a standalone basis was robust at | 37838 crore (3.4x order book to TTM bill ratio), largely aided by | 4.456 crore order inflow in Q1FY23. Going forward, the management expects traction in order inflows to improve with its strong emphasis on a) buildings: affordable housing, b) water: higher traction being witnessed in Jal Jeevan mission, c) roads and expressways, d) metro and railways and e) power distribution epc. While it refrained from order inflow guidance, it expects healthy traction. In terms of execution, while it refrained from firm guidance, it is targeting 15-20% YoY growth (vs. earlier indication of 10-15%) in topline in FY23 to be driven by a) higher executable order book and b) pick-up in execution with 100% operating efficiency. The company intends to attain margins of 10% in FY23, with improvement of 50 bps from current levels led by benign raw material prices.

Debt inches up on higher working capital on execution …

NCC’s standalone debt during Q1FY23 has inched up by | 523 crore QoQ to | 1707 crore, given the higher working capital draw down on accelerated execution. Going forward, the company expects its debt to reduce, partly to be aided by higher profitability and better cash flows management. Further, receipt of money from NCC Urban monetisation would help in debt reduction, ahead.

Other highlights

  • Andhra Pradesh contributes | 3,279 crore currently to the overall order book., NCC has collected | 117 crore during Q1FY23, which aided its net receivables from AP at | 496 crore. Further, the company has received | 44 crore during July and expects to receive | 300 crore from old projects in FY23.
  • NCC had entered into a share purchase agreement with GRPL Housing Pvt Ltd to sell its entire shareholding in NCC Vizag Urban Infrastructure Ltd (a subsidiary company; equity investment: ~| 50 crore; loans and advances: | 308 crore). The total equity consideration is at | 199.5 crore (to be paid in four instalments). Out of these, the company has received first payment of | 47.5 crore during Q4FY22 with balance expected by FY23-end. Similarly, the company expects the loan amounts to be release over the next two years. The funds are likely to be used for working capital requirements and reduce the company’s outstanding debt
  • The Company has allotted equity shares for ~1.1 crore warrants on receipt of 75% balance consideration of | 48.7 crore on June 30th, 2022 and for ~0.7 crore warrants on 1st July, 2022 on receipt of balance consideration of | 31 crore. Thus, the promoter shareholding as on date has inched up to 21.99% vs. 19.68%, earlier.
  • Total order from Water segment (largely Jal Jeeven Mission) was at ~| 6565 crore. As per the management, the execution has picked-up pace in this segment and company expects robust execution in FY23.
  • For both Sembcorp and Taqa arbitration, company expects some clarity only FY23 end.
  • Capex stood at | 57 crore for the quarter.

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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