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Muthoot Finance Ltd>
  • CMP : 1,716.9 Chg : -3.80 (-0.22%)
  • Target : 1,150.0 (11.22%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

23 May 2023

Sustained growth, new product remain key drivers…

About The Stock

Muthoot Finance is a leading gold financier in India with standalone AUM of ₹ 63209 crore as on March 2023.

  • It has a large footprint across India with 4700+ gold lending branches
  • The company also has a presence in other lending segments like microfinance, housing, vehicle finance via its subsidiaries
Q4FY23

Steady performance with a gradual revival in growth.

  • Consolidated AUM up 9% YoY with standalone AUM up 8% YoY
  • NII up 8.7% QoQ, NIMs up 40 bps QoQ at 12.3%, C/I ratio up at ~33%
  • Provision at ₹ 75 crore vs. ₹ 56 crore QoQ. PAT was flat QoQ at ₹ 903 crore
  • Stage-3 assets increased QoQ to 3.8%. ECL provision at 1.2% of total loans
What should Investors do?

Muthoot Finance’s share price has grown ~2.5x in the past five years. AUM growth has witnessed a revival but we remain watchful on how growth pans out in coming quarters amid competition from banks and other NBFCs.

  • Thus, we maintain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value the core business (gold loan) at ~1.8x FY25E ABV and assign ₹ 39 to subsidiaries, maintaining our target price to ₹ 1150

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • The management growth guidance has been revised upwards to ~15% YoY, which would be led by non-gold segment (15-20% share in total AUM)
  • Intense competition from banks/NBFCs continues to remain a key challenge for AUM growth
  • Launch of new products (small business loans and personal loans) through leverage of existing customers to aid business growth & diversification
  • Branch addition & business promotion activities to keep CI ratio elevated. Yield improvement to aid NIMs and thus earnings growth. Expect RoA to be 5-6% over FY23-25E
Alternate Stock

Apart from Muthoot, in our coverage we like CSB Bank.

  • CSB Bank has gold and SME as its key loan segments. Change in business strategy has led to an improved performance in the past few years
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 330

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 3 Year CAGR(FY20-FY23) FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (FY23-FY25E)
NII 5,773.5 6,636.1 7,120.3 6,669.5 4.9 7,737.2 8,907.3 15.6
PPP 4,153.1 5,101.5 5,436.4 4,727.0 4.4 5,457.6 6,251.5 15.0
PAT 3,018.3 3,722.2 3,954.3 3,473.5 4.8 3,985.2 4,535.4 14.3
ABV (|) 268.5 369.8 419.9 473.8 - 544.6 618.6 -
P/E 13.7 11.1 10.5 12.0 - 10.4 9.2 -
P/ABV 3.9 2.8 2.5 2.2 - 1.9 1.7 -
RoE (%) 28.3 27.8 23.5 17.6 - 17.7 17.8 -
RoA (%) 6.8 6.5 5.9 4.9 - 5.2 5.3 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

  Q4FY23 Q4FY23E Q4FY22 YoY (%) Q3FY23 QoQ (%)   Comments
NII 1,853 1,846 1,720 7.7 1,704 8.7   Partly aided by revival in AUM growth and  NIM expansion
NIM (%) 12.26 12.25 12.21 5 bps 11.86 40 bps   Yield up 26 bps QoQ to 18.5%
Other Income 70 52 37 86.5 49 43.3    
                 
Net Total Income 1,923 1,899 1,758 9.4 1,753 9.7    
Staff cost 370 320 313 18.2 277 33.6   Higher opex due to increase in staff count and branch addition
Other Operating Expenses 261 257 222 17.4 213 22.4    
  631 576 536 17.9 491 28.7    
PPP 1,292 1,322 1,222 5.7 1,262 2.3   Topline growth offset by elevated opex
Provision 75 49 -70 -207.6 56 35.2    
PBT 1,216 1,273 1,292 -5.8 1,207 0.8    
Tax Outgo 314 325 332 -5.4 305 2.8    
PAT 903 949 960 -6.0 902 0.1   Provision write up act as base YoY
                 
Key Metrics                
GNPA 2,399 834 1,737 38.1 1,490 61.0   Stage 3 assets stood at 3.8% vs 2.6% in Q3FY23
AUM 63,210 61,270 58,053 8.9 57,731 9.5    
Borrowings 49,763 51,308 49,870 -0.2 44,305 12.3    

 

Q4FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Guidance – Gold loan growth at ~15% YoY, aim to add 26 branches in home finance segment and overall branch expansion to be 150-200 branches
  • The revival in AUM growth was led by new campaigns at the branch level and pickup in economic activity resulting in increased demand for gold loans
  • Impact of rise in gold price was lower than expected
  • Opex was marginally higher on account of 20% increase in employee benefits expense due to employee addition of ~1000 and increase in salary
  • During the quarter, the company launched multiple new products including small business loans and personal loans in order to leverage existing customer base as a one-stop financial services provider
  • Wholesale disbursements increased by 53% QoQ to | 84 crore
  • The company’s collection efficiency for the quarter was at 99%
  • Average Ticket Size of loan was around | 70,000

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

 

I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA and Pravin Mule, MBA, M.com, Research Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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