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  • CMP : 3,766.5 Chg : -80.50 (-2.09%)
  • Target : 1,150.0 (11.22%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

09 Feb 2023

Mixed performance; pick-up in growth to be key

About The Stock

Muthoot Finance is a leading gold financier in India with standalone AUM of ₹ 57731 crore as on December 2022.

  • It has a large footprint across India with 4600+ gold lending branches
  • The company also has a presence in other lending segments like microfinance, housing, vehicle finance via its subsidiaries
Q2FY23

Muthoot Finance reported a mixed performance.

  • Consolidated AUM was up 7% YoY with standalone AUM up 6% YoY
  • NII up 8.4% QoQ, NIMs up 82 bps QoQ at 11.9%, C/I steady at ~28%
  • Provision was at ₹ 56 crore vs. reversal of ₹ 13 crore in Q2FY23. PAT grew 4% QoQ at ₹ 902 crore
  • Stage-3 assets up 91 bps QoQ to 2.58%. Gold auctions 0.4% of total loans
What should Investors do?

Muthoot Finance’s share price has grown ~2.5x in the past five years. We expect steady margins but concerns on growth remain an overhang amid intense competition from banks/NBFCs.

  • Thus, we maintain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

Rolling to FY25E, we value the core business (gold loan) at ~1.8x FY25E ABV and assign ₹ 40 to subsidiaries, maintaining our target price to ₹ 1150.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Growth guidance in gold loans expected at ~5-6% for FY23; expect growth to pick up at ~10% in FY24E
  • Traction in non-gold segment to contribute to overall AUM. Expect contribution of non-gold AUM to increase gradually at 15-20% ahead
  • Yields have started moving upwards, though at a slower pace. The management focused on maintaining NIMs steady
  • Intense competition from banks/NBFCs may put near term pressure on growth
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from Muthoot, in our coverage we like CSB Bank.

  • CSB Bank has gold and SME as its key loan segments. Change in business strategy has led to an improved performance in the past few years
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 300

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 3 Year CAGR_(FY19-FY22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 Year CAGR (FY22-25E)
NII 5,773.5 6,636.1 7,120.3 16.4 6,599.1 7,525.1 8,793.8 7.3
PPP 4,153.1 5,101.5 5,436.4 20.5 4,618.6 5,213.8 6,097.9 3.9
PAT 3,018.3 3,722.2 3,954.3 26.1 3,419.4 3,839.5 4,469.5 4.2
ABV (|) 268.5 369.8 419.9 - 484.1 553.8 628.1 -
P/E 13.7 11.1 10.5 - 12.1 10.8 9.3 -
P/ABV 3.9 2.8 2.5 - 2.1 1.9 1.6 -
RoE (%) 28.3 27.8 23.5 - 17.5 17.4 17.9 -
RoA (%) 6.8 6.5 5.9 - 4.8 5.2 5.5 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

  Q3FY23 Q3FY23E Q3FY22 YoY (%) Q2FY23 QoQ (%) Comments
NII 1,704 1,837 1,886 -9.6 1,572 8.4 Partly aided by margin expansion of 82 bps QoQ
NIM (%) 11.86 12.33 13.74 -188 bps 11.04 82 bps Yield up 84 bps QoQ to 18.2%
Other Income 49 32 32 50.4 29 68.3  
               
Net Total Income 1,753 1,869 1,918 -8.6 1,601 9.5  
Staff cost 277 326 255 8.9 269 2.8 CI ratio largely steady at ~28%
Other Operating Expenses 213 266 197 8.2 183 16.8  
               
PPP 1,262 1,277 1,467 -13.9 1,149 9.9  
Provision 56 30 89 -37.4 -13 NA  
PBT 1,207 1,247 1,378 -12.4 1,161 3.9  
Tax Outgo 305 318 349 -12.5 294 3.7  
PAT 902 929 1,029 -12.4 867 4.0 Subdued business growth impact earnings
               
Key Metrics              
GNPA 1,490 1,004 2,091 -28.8 956 55.8  
AUM 57,731 60,322 54,688 5.6 57,230 0.9  
Borrowings 44,305 48,706 47,123 -6.0 46,810 -5.4 CoF to increase to 8.5% level in coming quarters

 

Q3FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Growth seen at 4-6% in FY23E and 10% YoY for FY24E. Double digit growth to return in the next three to four quarters
  • In non-gold segment, management focus on home finance, vehicle finance, SME, personal loans and MFI
  • Out of 150 branches to be added by March 2023, ~100 were added by December 2022 with remaining to be added by March 2023. Next year also the company is planning to add ~150 new branches
  • Currently, the non-gold segment comprises ~12-13% of total AUM. The management guided that the proportion to increase to 15-20% in the next three to four years
  • Incremental CoF to increase to ~8.5% level from current 8.13%
  • Auctions for the quarter were | 222 crore, which is 0.4% of total loans
  • Average ticket size was | 70000

Disclaimer

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