loader2
Login Open ICICI 3-in-1 Account
  • CMP : 3,796.7 Chg : -11.50 (-0.30%)
  • Target : 1,150.0 (7.48%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

11 Nov 2022

Miss on margin, growth partially offset by lower cost

About The Stock

Muthoot Finance is a leading gold financier in India with standalone AUM of ₹ 57230 crore as on September 2022.

  • It has a large footprint across India with 4600+ gold lending branches
  • The company also has a presence in other lending segments like microfinance, housing, vehicle finance via its subsidiaries
Q2FY23

Muthoot Finance reported a muted performance on growth.

  • Consolidated AUM up 6% YoY with standalone AUM up 4% YoY
  • NII up 2.1% QoQ, NIMs up 30 bps QoQ at 11.0%, C/I down to 28.2%
  • Provision reversals resulted in PAT growth of 8.1% QoQ at ₹ 867 crore
  • Stage-3 assets fell 46 bps QoQ to 1.67%. Gold auctions 1% of total loans
What should Investors do?

Muthoot Finance’s share price has grown ~2.5x in the past five years. We expect an improvement in margin trajectory but concerns growth continue to persist amid heightened competition from banks and NBFCs.

  • We retain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value the core business (gold loan) at ~2x FY24E ABV and assign ₹ 31 to subsidiaries, revising our target price to ₹ 1150 from ₹ 1300.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Yields have started moving upwards, though at a slower pace. The management is confident of maintaining spreads at ~10%
  • A gradual pick-up was seen in customer addition; AUM driven by rise in gold price with marginal decline in tonnage. Growth guidance maintained at lower level of 10% for FY23E
  • Post regulatory approval, branch and staff additions to keep opex elevated
  • Intense competition from banks, NBFCs may put near term pressure
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from Muthoot, in our coverage we like CSB Bank.

  • CSB Bank has gold and SME as its key loan segments. Change in business strategy has led to an improved performance in the past few years

 

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 275

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 3 Year CAGR_(FY19-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-24E)
NII 4,520.2 5,773.5 6,636.1 7,120.3 16.4 6,535.9 7,973.3 5.8
PPP 3,104.4 4,153.1 5,101.5 5,436.4 20.5 4,544.3 5,649.8 1.9
PAT 1,972.1 3,018.3 3,722.2 3,954.3 26.1 3,386.0 4,168.8 2.7
ABV (|) 224.4 268.5 369.8 419.9 - 482.3 557.3 -
P/E 21.7 14.2 11.5 10.9 - 12.7 10.3 -
P/ABV 4.8 4.0 2.9 2.5 - 2.2 1.9 -
RoE (%) 22.4 28.3 27.8 23.5 - 17.3 18.8 -
RoA (%) 5.7 6.8 6.5 5.9 - 4.6 5.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

  Q2FY23E Q2FY23E Q2FY22 YoY (%) Q1FY23 QoQ (%) Comments
NII 1,572 1,849 1,813 -13.3 1,540 2.1 Aided by margin expansion and decent business growth 
NIM (%) 11.04 13.00 13.46 -242 bps 10.74 30 bps Yield up 8 bps QoQ to 17.38%
Other Income 29 41 41 -30.0 28 4.5  
               
Net Total Income 1,601 1,889 1,854 -13.6 1,568 2.1  
Staff cost 269 296 231 16.7 283 -4.7 Despite addition in staff, opex was controlled
Other Operating Expenses 183 282 209 -12.5 261 -30.0  
               
PPP 1,149 1,312 1,414 -18.8 1,024 12.2  
Provision -13 60 74 -117.1 -58 -77.9 Provision reversals during the quarter
PBT 1,161 1,252 1,340 -13.3 1,082 7.4  
Tax Outgo 294 319 346 -14.9 280 5.1  
PAT 867 933 994 -12.8 802 8.1 Gradual improvement in NIM impacts PAT
               
Key Metrics              
GNPA 956 1,011 1,021 -6.4 1,208 -20.9  
AUM 57,230 62,325 55,147 3.8 56,689 1.0  
Borrowings 46,810 49,805 48,831 -4.1 45,427 3.0 New customer addition seen from Q2FY23

 

Q2FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Growth in gold loans driven by a rise in gold price while tonnage witnessed a marginal decline sequentially. Growth guidance maintained at lower level of 10% for FY23E
  • The new 150 branch addition is expected to be completed by December 2022. By September 2022, out of 150, ~25 branches added
  • Yields are likely to be better than H1FY23 as teaser loans are moved to higher interest rates. Incremental yield on gold loan at 17.3% in Q2FY23
  • Borrowing cost was at 7.98% in Q2FY23. Benefit of repricing of high cost borrowing is expected to continue ahead. CoF is expected at ~8% in FY23E given the hike in interest rates
  • Auctions during the quarter were at | 578 crore, which is ~1% of total AUM (standalone)
  • Advertisement expenses were on track in line with the earlier guidance. Some advertisement expenses are expected to accrue in H2FY23
  • No update has been received from RBI on the cards business

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

 

I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA and Pravin Mule, MBA, M.com, Research Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.     

 

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

 

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.

ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.

 

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.

 

Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stocks price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a companys fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports.

 

Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.

 

ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Institutional Research.

 

The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances.

 

This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months.

 

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report.

 

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.

 

ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report.

 

Since associates of ICICI Securities and ICICI Securities as a entity are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or actual/beneficial ownership of one percent or more or other material conflict of interest various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.

 

ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.

Read More