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  • CMP : 3,749.9 Chg : -16.60 (-0.44%)
  • Target : 1,300.0 (9.43%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

15 Aug 2022

Subdued quarter; growth & yields remain watchful…

About The Stock

Muthoot Finance is a leading gold financier in India with standalone AUM of ₹ 56689 crore as on June 2022.

  • It has a large footprint across India with 4617 gold lending branches.
  • The company also has a presence in other lending segments like microfinance, housing, vehicle finance via its subsidiaries.
Q1FY23

Muthoot Finance reported a dull quarter

  • Consolidated AUM up 9% YoY and Standalone AUM up 8% YoY.
  • NII fell 10.5% QoQ, NIMs down 147 bps QoQ at 10.74%, C/I higher at 34.7%
  • Despite provision reversals, PAT de-grew 17.4% YoY at ₹ 802 crore
  • Stage-3 assets fell 86bps QoQ to 2.13%. Gold auctions 2% of total loans
What should Investors do?

Muthoot Finance’s share price has grown ~2.6x in the past five years. We believe Muthoot is a play on gold finance theme but would wait for clear picture on competitive intensity and earnings trajectory.

  • We downgrade rating on the stock from Buy to Hold
Target Price and Valuation

We value the core business (gold loan) at ~2.1x FY24E ABV and assign ₹ 31 to subsidiaries, maintaining our target price at ₹ 1300 per share

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Shift from teaser rates to normal rates is already in place, thus yields are expected to pick up from hereon.
  • Management confident of maintaining spreads at ~10%, we believe this should keep margins steady.
  • Healthy AUM guidance of 10-15%, steady demand for gold loans and new branch additions to aid earnings and profitability.
  • High competitive intensity still persistent led by banks & fintechs
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from Muthoot, in our coverage we also like CSB Bank.

  • CSB Bank has gold and SME as its key loan segments. Change in business strategy has led to an improved performance in the past few years
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 250

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 3 Year CAGR_(FY19-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-24E)
NII 4,520.2 5,773.5 6,636.1 7,120.3 16.4 7,771.7 9,548.9 15.8
PPP 3,104.4 4,153.1 5,101.5 5,436.4 20.5 5,796.9 7,290.6 15.8
PAT 1,972.1 3,018.3 3,722.2 3,954.3 26.1 4,263.0 5,377.4 16.6
ABV (|) 224.4 268.5 369.8 419.9 - 496.6 591.9 -
P/E 24.1 15.8 12.8 12.1 - 11.2 8.9 -
P/ABV 5.3 4.4 3.2 2.8 - 2.4 2.0 -
RoE (%) 22.4 28.3 27.8 23.5 - 21.5 23.2 -
RoA (%) 5.7 6.8 6.5 5.9 - 5.7 6.4 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

  Q1FY23 Q1FY23E Q1FY22 YoY (%) Q4FY22 QoQ (%) Comments
NII 1,540 1,824 1,702 -9.5 1,720 -10.5 Sluggish business growth leads to weak operational performance 
NIM (%) 10.74 11.92 12.93 -219 bps 12.21 -147 bps Lower yield due to teaser rates 
Other Income 28 38 31 -11.3 37 -26.0  
               
Net Total Income 1,568 1,862 1,733 -9.5 1,758 -10.8  
Staff cost 283 301 231 22.2 313 -9.8  
Other Operating Expenses 261 200 168 55.7 222 17.3 Led by increase in staff count and advertisement expenses
               
PPP 1,024 1,362 1,334 -23.2 1,222 -16.2  
Provision -58 24 34 -271.3 -70 -17.5 Provision reversals during the quarter
PBT 1,082 1,338 1,300 -16.8 1,292 -16.3  
Tax Outgo 280 341 329 -14.9 332 -15.6  
PAT 802 997 971 -17.4 960 -16.5 Weak top-line resulted in PAT de-growth
               
Key Metrics              
GNPA 1,208 919 641 88.5 1,737 -30.5 Gold auctions stood down QoQ to 2% of loans
AUM 56,689 56,561 52,614 7.7 58,053 -2.3  
Borrowings 45,427 47,812 47,812 -5.0 49,870 -8.9  

 

Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Company received approval from RBI to open 150 branches. The new branch addition expected to be completed by Oct’22.
  • During the quarter, company raised ₹ 643 crore via NCDs. Net CoF is expected to remain steady. However, Management is confident of maintaining 10%+ spreads.
  • Migration from teaser rates (i.e. 6.99%) to higher rates is completed in Jun’22. Hence, yields to witness uptick from Q2FY23 onwards.
  • Total auctions during the quarter was ~2% (₹ 1374 crore) of total loans. Auction recovery was ₹ 1807 crore. 
  • AUM to growth in the range of 10-15% YoY in FY23E. New branches generally take 1-2 years to contribute meaningfully to growth.
  • Interest accrued during the quarter was ₹ 1700 crore.
  • Average tenure of loans is 3-5 months. 3.14 lakh new customers added in Q1FY23.
  • Loans with above ₹ 3 lakhs – 23%, loans below ₹ 1 lakh – 42% of total loans.
  • Subsidiary businesses are showing signs of recovery and expected to pick up in coming quarters. As per new regulatory landscape for MFIs, Belstar MFI interest rates on new loans increased by ~300 bps.

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