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Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd>
  • CMP : 4,167.8 Chg : 6.95 (0.17%)
  • Target : 1,650.0 (19.57%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

23 May 2023

Options traction positive; migration on time by June 2023

About The Stock

MCX is the leader in commodity derivatives exchanges in India with ~96.8% market share in terms of commodity futures turnover.

  • It has ~100% market share in precious metals, base metals and energy
  • Presence in various commodities offers healthy diversification
Q4FY23

Anticipated elevated software expenses marred earnings.

  • Average daily futures turnover (ADTO) declined ~22% YoY to ₹ 20632 crore due to a decline in base metals volume
  • Option ADTO was healthy at ₹ 45710 crore, up ~3x YoY, 16% QoQ
  • Operational revenue declined 6.8% QoQ; other income was flat QoQ
  • Earnings at ₹ 5.4 crore; down 85.1%, due to elevated software related expenses
What should Investors do?

Market leadership with continued traction in options seen driving topline, earnings. New product initiatives are lined up though regulatory approvals are awaited. Delay in launch of new platform acted as overhang; management seems confident of completing implementation by June 2023.

  • Thus, we maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value MCX at ~25x core FY25E EPS plus net cash (ex-SGF) and revise our target price to ₹ 1650 from ₹ 1700

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Software migration overhang to be over as the management is confident of completing the migration by June 2023
  • Robust traction in options volume expected to continue. Launch of several mini contracts will aid overall volume growth and revenues
  • New product launch/initiatives - electricity contracts, option gold contract to drive valuation further; awaiting regulatory approval
Alternate Stock

Apart from MCX, in our coverage we also like HDFC AMC.

  • HDFC AMC is among the largest and profitable mutual funds with an QAAUM of ~₹ 4.4 lakh crore
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 2050

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 3 Year CAGR(FY20-FY23) FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (FY23-FY25E)
Net Sales 374.2 390.6 366.8 513.5 11.1 561.8 598.0 7.9
EBITDA 154.7 185.1 162.2 149.7 -1.1 266.9 360.1 55.1
Net Profit 236.6 225.3 143.7 149.2 -14.3 229.3 299.6 41.7
EPS (|) 46.4 44.2 28.2 29.3 - 45.0 58.8 -
P/E(x) 29.7 31.2 49.0 47.2 - 30.7 23.5 -
Annual Volume Traded (in lakh crore) 86.9 82.6 87.8 146.9 - 186.5 205.2 -
RoE (%) 17.4 15.9 10.1 10.1 - 14.7 16.1 -
RoA (%) 8.7 9.0 5.1 4.9 - 7.0 8.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

  Q4FY23 Q4FY23E Q4FY22 YoY Q3FY23 QoQ Comments
Revenue 133.8 142.9 106.5 25.6% 143.6 -6.8% Options volume continue to drive top-line though yield pressure seen in Q4FY23
Other Income 20.1 15.9 14.6 37.7% 20.1 0.0%  
Total Income 153.8 158.8 121.0 27.1% 163.7 -6.0%  
               
Operating Expenses 108.3 114.5 35.0 209.4% 87.9 23.1% Anticipated higher software expenses impacted overall opex
Other Expenses 23.4 21.9 18.2 28.5% 22.9 2.3%  
               
Total Expenses 131.7 136.4 53.2 147.4% 110.8 18.8%  
               
EBITDA 2.1 6.5 53.24 -96.1% 32.7 -93.7%  
EBITDA % 1.5% 4.5% 50.0% -4,846 bps 22.8% -2,126 bps  
               
Depreciation 5.8 6.7 2.7 112.1% 4.3 36.2%  
Finance Costs 0.1 0.1 0.1 33.3% 0.1 -  
Exceptional Items -2.3 0.0 -20.6 - -0.7 -  
PBT 14.0 15.6 44.5 -68.5% 47.8 -70.7%  
Tax 8.6 3.6 7.9 7.8% 9.0 -4.8%  
PAT 5.4 12.0 36.5 -85.1% 38.8 -85.9% Top-line healthy; elevated software expense marred earnings
               
Turnover 42,45,897   26,10,387 62.7% 40,74,762 4.2% Strong traction continued in options turnover

 

Q4FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • During the quarter, the company paid | 81 crore towards software charges to 63 moons
  • The software related transition is expected to be completed by June 2023. Total | 300-350 crore capex is done and depreciation will be spread across five to six years
  • The company has run several mock tests in which 96-97% test case have been cleared. Also, ~170-180 unique members had participated in mock tests
  • The contract with TCS is for six years while AMC cost will commence from second year onwards (which would be | 8-10 crore)
  • Revenue mix: Futures – 51%, Options – 49%. Launched three mini contracts including crude oil, nickel & copper, natural gas
  • Coal exchange – Spot exchange is expected to commence by end of FY24
  • UCC base was at 6.21 lakh during FY23, up 32% YoY
  • Top 10 members contribute ~63% of total volumes
  • Tax rate was higher as balancing tax (on an actual basis) was entirely paid in Q4. Tax rate to be largely steady at FY23 levels
  • During the quarter, loss from associates was higher on account of IIBX operations, which were started in GIFT city
  • The management clarified that the recent exit of CTO was due to personal reasons

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

 

I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA and Pravin Mule, MBA, M.com, Research Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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