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  • CMP : 10,309.0 Chg : 137.0 (1.35%)
  • Target : 1,700.0 (15.25%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

23 Oct 2022

Strong traction in option; new launches remain trigger

About The Stock

MCX is the leader in commodity derivatives exchanges in India with ~96.8% market share in terms of commodity futures turnover.

  • It has ~100% market share in precious metals, base metals and energy
  • Presence in various commodities offers healthy diversification
Q2FY23

MCX reported a strong quarter with options gaining strength.

  • Average daily futures turnover (ADTO) declined ~7% YoY to ₹ 23918 crore due to a decline in base metals volume
  • Option ADTO continued to gain traction to ₹ 31381 crore; up 60% QoQ
  • Operational revenue up 17.1% QoQ; other income regained to normal level
  • Earnings at ₹ 63.3 crore; up 52.6%, led by strong options turnover
What should Investors do?

MCX’ share price has grown by ~30% over the past three years. Continued anticipated traction in options and regulatory approval for new launches remain key. We upgrade our estimates for FY23E and FY24E.

  • Being a market leader in commodities exchange and a beneficiary of increase in option volume, we maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value MCX at ~33x core FY24E EPS and net cash and maintain our target price at ₹ 1700.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Continued non-linear growth in option volume to aid revenue & earnings
  • Well diversified product mix, continued improvement in participants to aid volume growth
  • New product launch/initiatives - electricity contracts, option gold contract to drive next leg of re-rating
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from MCX, in our coverage we also like 5Paisa.

  • It is a leading discount broker and offers a play on new age fintech financial intermediary with robust client addition

 

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 375

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 3 year CAGR_(FY19-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR_(FY22-24E)
Net Sales 300.0 374.2 390.6 366.8 6.9 501.5 546.3 22.0
EBITDA 94.9 154.7 185.1 162.2 19.6 257.2 290.4 33.8
Net Profit 168.4 236.6 225.3 143.7 -5.2 225.1 260.7 34.7
EPS (|) 33.0 46.4 44.2 28.2 - 44.1 51.1 -
P/E(x) 44.7 31.8 33.4 52.4 - 33.4 28.9 -
Annual Volume Traded (in lakh crore) 67.7 86.9 82.6 87.8 - 136.2 186.3 -
RoE (%) 13.5 17.4 15.9 10.1 - 15.0 14.8 -
RoA (%) 8.1 8.7 9.0 5.1 - 7.5 7.6 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

  Q2FY23 Q2FY23E Q2FY22 YoY Q1FY23 QoQ Comments
Revenue 127.4 119.3 83.2 53.1% 108.8 17.1% Healthy growth driven by options 
Other Income 18.2 9.5 16.1 13.5% 9.3 97.0% Uptick in other income led by steady yields
Total Income 145.6 128.8 99.3 46.7% 118.1 23.4%  
               
Operating Expenses 38.9 36.9 28.8 35.4% 36.8 5.8%  
Other Expenses 22.9 22.7 20.6 10.7% 22.7 0.5% Opex to elevate in upcoming quarter
               
Total Expenses 61.8 59.7 49.4 25.1% 59.5 3.8%  
               
EBITDA 65.6 59.6 33.80 94.1% 49.3 33.2%  
EBITDA % 51.5% 50.0% 40.6% 1,087 bps 45.3% 622 bps  
               
Depreciation 5.8 6.6 6.6 -12.4% 5.8 0.0%  
Finance Costs 0.0 0.1 0.1 -100.0% 0.1 -100.0%  
Exceptional Items -1.4 0.0 -0.5 - -0.6 -  
PBT 76.7 62.5 42.7 79.7% 52.1 47.4%  
Tax 13.5 12.7 10.0 34.0% 10.6 26.9%  
PAT 63.3 49.8 32.7 93.8% 41.5 52.6% PAT came in higher than estimates

 

Q2FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Options did well during the quarter. Volumes in futures saw a marginal decline. Introduction of contracts should help meet targets
  • Transition to new TCS platform – UAT has already started. Planning to be launched in November 2022 (mock and parallel run) and expected to go live by December 2022
  • Operating revenue breakup – Futures - | 62 crore, options - | 43 crore. Balance | 20 crore from membership fees, other fees, etc
  • On the SGF side, there were no further developments. SEBI response is awaited
  • Domestic spot exchanges (gold) will start doing well only if there is a GST consideration for first depositors
  • By December 2022 UCC participated clients will be 374000 vs. 314000 last year and 219000 in Q2FY22 to 291000 in Q2FY23
  • Gradually introducing more products and options will also start picking up
  • On book cash, excluding margin money, was | 900 crore (5% in ETF, 45% in SDLs, Bharat bonds maturing in April 2023) as of September 2022
  • Planning to launch gold monthly option contracts by Q1FY24
  • Other income was mainly from treasury. During the quarter, the company invested a substantial amount in SDLs and perpetual bonds in primary and secondary market. All these instruments are under HTM
  • Top 10 traders concentration has gone up to 66% vs. 62% in FY22
  • Fees slab – Up to | 5 crore - | 50 per lakh and beyond | 5 crore of premium - | 40 per lakh. Tax rate to be at 23%

Disclaimer

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I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA and Pravin Mule, MBA, M.com, Research Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.                

 

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