loader2
Partner With Us NRI
Mphasis Ltd>
  • CMP : 2,321.1 Chg : 1.70 (0.07%)
  • Target : 1,950.0 (4.84%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

02 May 2023

Growth likely to be back ended with sequential growth from Q2FY24 onwards…

About The Stock

Mphasis Ltd (Mphasis) offers application services, BPO and infrastructure services, BFSI, technology, communication & logistic services.

  • The company’s direct revenue increased 19.3% YoY on a reported basis and 12% in CC terms in FY23
  • OCF, EBITDA of 75% and double digit return ratio (with RoCE of 20%)
Q4FY23 Results:

Mphasis reported weak Q4FY23 results.

  • In CC terms, direct revenue fell 3.4% QoQ and revenue declined 4.5% QoQ
  • EBIT margins were flat at 15.3%
  • Won TCV of US$309 mn with two large deals in Q4
What should Investors do?

Mphasis’ share price has grown by ~1.8x over the past five years (from ~₹ 1009 in May 2018 to ~₹ 1860 levels in May 2023).

  • We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value Mphasis at ₹ 1950 i.e. 18x P/E on FY25E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Strategy to mine top 10, 20 clients, adding high potential new logos, rise in deal sizes and expansion in Europe bode well for long term growth
  • Further, the management stability, improving deal size, market share gains via vendor consolidation, low legacy exposure to drive 9.7% CAGR in revenues over FY23-25E
  • Improving revenue trajectory, higher offshoring, utilisation & fresher deployment to boost EBIT margins (+80 bps to 16.1% in FY23-25E)
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from Mphasis, in our IT coverage we like Infosys.

  • Key beneficiary of improved digital demand, industry leading revenue growth and healthy capital allocation prompt us to be positive
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1,600

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 5 year CAGR (FY18-23) FY24E FY25E 2 year CAGR (FY23-25E)
Net Sales 8,843.5 9,722.3 11,961.5 13,798.4 16.1 14,706.9 16,606.1 9.7
EBITDA 1,650.4 1,802.9 2,117.6 2,433.9 18.0 2,662.0 3,072.1 12.3
EBITDA Margins (%) 18.7 18.5 17.7 17.6 - 18.1 18.5 -
Net Profit 1,184.8 1,216.8 1,430.9 1,637.8 14.4 1,821.1 2,062.1 12.2
Diluted EPS (|) 63.1 64.4 75.6 86.4 - 96.0 108.7 -
P/E (x) 29.3 28.5 24.4 21.4 - 19.2 17.0 -
RoE (%) 20.3 18.6 20.6 20.6 - 21.0 21.7 -
RoCE (%) 22.3 21.8 25.3 25.8 - 26.6 27.8 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • The company reported weak Q4 results with consolidated revenue declining 4.1% QoQ to US$412 mn while in CC terms revenue declined 4.5% QoQ. In rupee terms, Mphasis reported a revenue of | 3,361 crore, down 4.1% QoQ. Direct revenue (94.6% of mix) declined 3.1% QoQ while in CC terms it declined 3.4% QoQ. DXC revenue (3.8% of mix) declined 24.5% QoQ while in CC terms it declined 24.8% QoQ. The company mentioned that digital risk contributed 6.8% to revenue in Q4 compared to 8.8% in Q3, 15% in Q1
  • Geography wise, US region revenue (80.8% of mix) declined 5.3% QoQ while EMEA (10.7% of mix) and India grew 1.4% & 3.6% QoQ, respectively
  • Vertical wise BFS (53.1% of mix), insurance (7.6% of mix) & TMT (12.7% of mix) declined 5.1%, 11.3% & 6.1% QoQ, respectively. Logistics & transportation and other reported growth of 0.6% & 2% QoQ, respectively
  • EBIT margin was flat during the quarter at 15.3% despite a decline in revenue due to lower employee. The employee cost declined 5.2% QoQ
  • For FY23, the net revenue grew 16.7% in rupee terms while in dollar terms revenue grew 7.8% (9.7% in CC). Direct revenue (93.9% of mix), which was impacted by mortgage LOB slowdown grew 19.3% in reported terms and 12% in CC terms. The company mentioned that ex Digital Risk (DR) direct business grew 19.6% in CC terms. DXC revenue (4.5% of mix) declined 19% on a reported basis and 23.5% in CC terms in FY23. In FY23, Mphasis said its BPS business declined 16% due to decline in mortgage business. The company, across all quarters and FY23, reported an EBIT margin of 15.3%. Mphasis also mentioned that despite the accelerated decline of DR business the company was able to sustain margins at 15.3% due to utilisation improvement, fresher deployment and increase in offshoring
  • The company mentioned that its performance in Q4 was impacted by a decline in mortgage & DXC business. Mphasis said direct revenue declined 1.8% YoY in Q4 and ex DR it declined 1%. The company mentioned that mortgage business was impacted by high interest rates and. The volume of transactions, although it picked up a bit in January, declined over the remaining quarters. The company also mentioned that the contribution of DR LOB declined to 6.8% in Q4 compared to 8.8% in Q3
  • The company mentioned that although global macro uncertainty prevails the demand for enterprise digital transformation still remains strong. Mphasis mentioned that demand for cost takeout and vendor consolidation deals is witnessing increased traction. The company mentioned that clients want to move forward with digital transformation agenda through driving the cost optimisation programs. Mphasis, however, mentioned that due to the uncertain macros it is witnessing higher scrutiny on spending decisions of clients leading to a delay in deal bookings and conversion to revenues. The company also mentioned that it is seeing a slowdown in discretionary spending by clients
  • The company mentioned that starting FY24 it is aligning its GTM strategy alongside verticals to drive better sales synergy as the company focuses to increase its wallet share and market share within its existing clients & newer clients. Mphasis mentioned that it wants to consolidate the learnings from the different accounts to verticals to develop its offerings for stronger client mining & scaling of accounts
  • The company, despite the uncertain macros in Q4FY24, won a net new TCV of US$309 mn, down 11% QoQ with two large deals. Mphasis mentioned that one of the large deals is of US$150 mn+ from a new client in the BFS vertical. The company mentioned that the deal is of zero cost transformation project wherein the company is gaining wallet share from other vendors. Mphasis also mentioned that out of the total TCV, 70% contribution came from BFSI, 15% from Insurance, 9% from TMT and 4% from logistics & transportation. The company mentioned that during all four quarters of FY23 it sustained TCV above US$300 mn and it will like to sustain the same momentum, going forward, in FY24
  • The company mentioned that it finished FY23 with a total TCV of US$1.3bn with 10 large deals. Mphasis mentioned that the average deal size in FY23 was at US$61 mn, which has doubled in three years. The company also mentioned that the deal pipeline remains strong despite the robust TCV conversion in FY23. Mphasis mentioned that it deals pipeline is up 9% QoQ and 35% YoY. The company said its pipeline remains diversified but is still dominated by BFSI contributing 36% of the pipeline. However, Mphasis added that non BFSI pipeline is growing at a stronger pace of 52% YoY growth indicating that the company’s aim of diversifying from BFSI segment is bearing results. The company said that among the non BFSI pipeline Hitech/TMT has the largest pipeline and also mentioned that healthcare over last 18 months has won good TCV. In the insurance vertical, Mphasis added that its large client had gone through an internal restructuring, which impacted the revenue growth but the company said it has won two large deals in insurance. With those ramping up, the vertical should see growth by Q1FY24 end. The company also mentioned that the pipeline is distributed across areas of data, modernisation, cyber security, platforms & agile ops
  • The company mentioned that it is starting FY24 with an extended deal pipeline of cloud, digital transformation and vendor consolidation opportunities. Mphasis, however, indicated that it expects soft beginning in Q1FY24 due to client specific issues in BFS and delayed contract conversion in current environment. The company said that it expects mortgage decline to bottom out by end of Q1 and expects stability across the mortgage business segment from Q2 onwards. The company mentioned it also expects DXC business to remain steady at Q4FY23 levels. With the stability across mortgage & DXC LOB Mphasis mentioned that it expects industry average growth in direct business ex of mortgage business. The company also mentioned that it expects sequential growth in direct business ex DR from Q2FY24 onwards
  • On the margin front, the company has guided for an EBIT margin of 15.25-16.25% across each quarter of FY24. Mphasis mentioned that lever for margin improvement is increase in utilisation, fresher deployment, increases offshoring and currency benefits. The company also indicated that it will aim to achieve the higher end of the margin guidance for FY24
  • The company’s net employees during the quarter declined by 1,408 bringing the total employees to 34,042. Mphasis mentioned that the decline in employee in the last few quarters was due to company tightening hiring policy and focus on improving its utilisation by deploying freshers. The company indicated that it has not conducted any layoff but the open positions due to voluntary attrition were filled by deploying freshers instead of lateral hirings leading to a decline in headcount
  • M&A: The company indicated that it is actively looking for an M&A opportunity. Mphasis mentioned that it is looking at M&A as a strategic tool to diversify it vertical & geography base. The company added that some M&A deals are under discussion and few are at diligence stage. However, Mphasis has not given any fixed time for closing the M&A deals but mentioned that it will complete one to two deals in FY24
  • On new technology, the company indicated that it has been one of the leaders in the ChaptGPT and generative AI space as it had developed its own machine learning platform in 2019 itself. Mphasis also mentioned that it has incorporated the earlier versions of ChatGPT & ChatGPT4 in its own ML platform. The company further mentioned that the recent revolution around the ChatGPT has made it a board room discussion among clients and gives the company opportunity to win new deal opportunities. Mphasis mentioned that the areas in which it is seeing traction for this tech are: i) modern engineering practises & developer productivity, which provides company opportunity to gain wallet shares from competitors by aligning clients software development practises using this tools & 2) areas which uses automation elements like contact centre automation which uses digital self-help & chatbots
  • The company declared a dividend of | 50 per share for FY23

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Sameer Pardikar, MBA, Sujay Chavan, MMS, Research Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.         

 

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

 

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.

ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. Registered Office Address: ICICI Venture House, Appasaheb Marathe Marg, Prabhadevi, Mumbai - 400 025. CIN: L67120MH1995PLC086241, Tel: (91 22) 6807 7100. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.

Investments in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Registration granted by Sebi and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. None of the research recommendations promise or guarantee any assured, minimum or risk-free return to the investors.

Name of the Compliance officer (Research Analyst): Mr. Anoop Goyal

Contact number: 022-40701000 E-mail Address: complianceofficer@icicisecurities.com

For any queries or grievances: Mr. Prabodh Avadhoot Email address: headservicequality@icicidirect.com Contact Number: 18601231122

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.

 

Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stocks price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a companys fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports.

 

Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.

 

ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Institutional Research.

 

The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances.

 

This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months.

 

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report.

 

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.

 

ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report.

 

Since associates of ICICI Securities and ICICI Securities as a entity are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or actual/beneficial ownership of one percent or more or other material conflict of interest various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.

 

ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.

 

Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report.

 

We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities.

 

This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

 

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

Third Floor, Brillanto House,

Road No 13, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

Read More