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  • CMP : 2,912.7 Chg : 17.80 (0.61%)
  • Target : 2,070.0 (2.22%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

23 Jan 2023

Mortgage pain, client issues continue; strong TCV only solace

About The Stock

Mphasis Ltd (Mphasis) offers application services, BPO and infrastructure services, BFSI, technology, communication & logistic services.

  • The company’s direct revenue increased 35.7% YoY on a reported basis and 34.4% in CC terms in FY22
  • OCF, EBITDA of 75% and double digit return ratio (with RoCE of 20%)
Q3FY23 Results:

Mphasis reported weak Q3FY23 results.

  • In CC terms, direct revenue declined 2.8% QoQ while the company’s revenue declined 2.5% QoQ
  • EBIT margins were flat at 15.3%
  • TCV remained healthy at US$401 mn in Q3
What should Investors do?

Mphasis’ share price has grown by ~2.9x over the past five years (from ~₹ 710 in January 2018 to ~₹ 2025 levels in January 2023).

  • We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value Mphasis at ₹ 2070 i.e. 20x P/E on FY25E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Strategy to mine top 10, 20 clients, adding high potential new logos, rise in deal sizes & expansion in Europe bodes well for long term growth
  • Further, the management stability, improving deal size, market share gains via vendor consolidation, low legacy exposure to drive 8.5% CAGR in revenues over FY22-25E
  • Improving revenue trajectory, higher offshoring, pricing and automation to boost EBIT margins (+100 bps to 16.3% in FY22-25E)
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from Mphasis, in our IT coverage we like Cyient.

  • The company offers engineering & development services to aerospace, transportation, energy & utilities segments
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1,020

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 Year CAGR (FY22-FY25E)
Net Sales 8,843.5 9,722.3 11,961.5 14.5 13,854.6 14,297.3 15,285.3 8.5
EBITDA 1,650.4 1,802.9 2,117.6 16.9 2,396.9 2,616.4 2,843.1 10.3
EBITDA Margins (%) 18.7 18.5 17.7 - 17.3 18.3 18.6 -
Net Profit 1,184.8 1,216.8 1,430.9 12.6 1,638.2 1,804.5 1,957.5 11.0
Diluted EPS (|) 63.1 64.4 75.6 - 86.6 95.4 103.4 -
P/E (x) 31.9 31.1 26.5 - 23.2 21.0 19.4 -
RoE (%) 20.3 18.6 20.6 - 21.8 22.1 22.2 -
RoCE (%) 22.3 21.8 23.7 - 24.3 25.0 25.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

  • The company reported weak Q3 results with consolidated revenue declining by 2.5% QoQ to US$429.4 mn. In rupee terms, Mphasis reported a revenue of | 3,506 crore, down 0.4% QoQ. Direct revenue (93.6% of mix) was flat sequentially while in CC terms it declined 2.8% QoQ. DXC revenue (4.8% of mix) grew 3.1% QoQ
  • The company indicated that the macro environment over the last few months has deteriorated further. However, it sees continued investments in strategic areas of cloud transformation, data engineering, cyber security and customer experience. Mphasis is increasingly seeing lot of opportunities in the cost take out deals. Banking and insurance vertical has started witnessing accelerated spending on digital transformation. Ease of supply chain has been visible over the last few months. There is still scarcity of talent in niche areas
  • The company indicated that budget in some areas such as BPO business is likely to be squeezed further in CY23. Mphasis indicated that the BFSI sector was impacted by furlough in Q3 and is likely to recover, going ahead. The company indicated that mortgage LoB has seen a significant ramp down during the quarter, which has resulted in direct revenue decline for the quarter, magnitude of the which was unprecedented and unanticipated. It was impacted by high interest rate and consumer inflation in the US market. The contribution of its digital risk (DR) subsidiary representing mortgage BPS business is now at 8.8% in Q3 vs. 15% in Q1. The company has indicated that it has witnessed 20% volume decline in the business for the quarter while volume decline was 80% in the last four quarters. Ex-DR BFS vertical grew 17% YoY in CC and 2% sequentially
  • Geography wise US region (81.8% of mix) declined 0.2% QoQ while EMEA & India reported growth of 2.9% & 4.1% QoQ, respectively
  • Vertical wise, BFS (53.6% of the mix) & insurance (8.3% of mix) declined 0.8% & 0.5% QoQ, respectively, while TMT, Logistics & Others grew 0.3%, 2.3% & 3.4%, respectively. The company indicated that in the others vertical the smaller segment like healthcare is growing strongly at 30% YoY CC
  • Mphasis reported flat EBIT margins for the quarter at 15.3%. The company indicated that despite the steep decline in DR LOB and seasonally weak quarter it was able to maintain margins in the guided range due to easing of supply side challenges and continued deployment of freshers in the system
  • Mphasis, during the quarter, won its second highest TCV of US$401 mn, up 19.7% QoQ. The company in 9MFY23 has won TCV over US$1 billion (bn) indicating that demand remains strong despite the challenging macros. Mphasis indicated that ~60% of TCV wins in Q3 were in the BFS vertical indicating that the outlook for this vertical remains strong and it provides medium term visibility of revenue conversion. The company, during the quarter, won five large deals while one deal is US$100+ mn. Mphasis also indicated that the demand pipeline remains strong and the pipeline has grown over 6% QoQ
  • Deals: Mphasis mentioned that it is unusual that large customers are doing large tenure. There are deals, which are stretched out to multiyear opportunity. The company signed a deal early last year, which has stretched over 10 years. Mphasis mentioned that current TCV has healthy balance of long term and short-term deals. The company indicated that there has been caution from the clients in the last couple of quarters. It has seen a steady conversion of strategy deals and correlation is still strong there, which will provide good revenue visibility
  • Mortgage business: i) Origination: The company mentioned this was the only business it had till some time ago, where it had seen volumes drop. Mphasis mentioned that mortgage for new purchases in the US has been under pressure as home prices are still at elevated levels and increasing interest rates are making them highly unaffordable. ii) It added home equity line of business some time ago, which has a negative correlation with home prices since home prices were down. There are a lot of owners who are likely to cash on home equity but since now home prices are higher, there is a decline in volume in the home equity market as well and equity value is coming down here iii) Third business is services business, which is more project based business where delinquency loans are bought and sold either between government institutions or between secondary buyers between one bank to other etc. Volumes are very low in this business currently and activities are largely frozen. The company indicated that this cannot operate for longer in a frozen state and bank delinquencies may go up, which is where the banks are expected to trade them and trading may pick up
  • Some of the other pockets where the company is witnessing caution are i) some pockets of Hi-Tech where it had an unexpected furlough in Q2 which continued in Q3 as well ii) The company also mentioned that clients in two of their larger engagements are going through turbulences in their businesses, which are expected to recover, going forward
  • Margins: The company mentioned that it is investing for opportunity and not leaving anything on the table. It mentioned that there is scope of further improvement in the utilisation which along with offshore mix improvement along with continued deployment of freshers are margin leavers ahead. The company also mentioned that headwinds in the revenue are also restricting operating leverage and growth coming back in the next couple of quarters will aid in steady margin expansion
  • Hiring: The company’s net employees during the quarter declined by 1,426 to 35,450. The company further indicated that its net billable employees declined by 1,227. The company mentioned that headcount reduction is in line with their optimisation strategy which they have been taking about. The company said it continues to add freshers in the system and they are at record high since they have been tracking it. The company also mentioned that fresher hiring provides them an opportunity to optimise lateral hiring on as required basis
  • M&A: The company mentioned that they have hired new M&A leader some time ago and is reporting to CEO. Mphasis added that it is now looking, not only to tuck in deals but also strategic investments, going forward. It also mentioned that it is looking for vertical led capabilities as well as geography led capabilities. The company also indicated that 2023 would be a year in which it is looking for inorganic opportunity on account of correction of valuations of the companies in this space. As a result of the same, valuations are likely to be in their desired range
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q3FY23   Q3FY22   YoY (%)   Q2FY23   QoQ (%)  Comments
Revenue 3,506 3,124 12.2 3,520 -0.4 Mortgage LOB & higher than expected furloughs impacted revenues in Q3
Employee expense 2,509 2,196 14.2 2,532 -0.9  
             
Gross Margin 998 928 7.5 988 0.9  
Gross margin (%) 28.5 29.7 -124 bps 28.1 37 bps  
Other expense 380 374 1.5 371 2.6  
             
EBITDA 618 553 11.6 618 0.0  
EBITDA Margin (%) 17.6 17.7 -10 bps 17.5 6 bps  
Depreciation & amortisation 82 83 -0.6 80 2.5  
EBIT 535 471 13.8 538 -0.4  
EBIT Margin (%) 15.3 15.1 20 bps 15.3 0 bps Margins were flat as gains from increased utilization & pyramid optimization wiped off due to decline in mortgage LOB
Other income (less interest) 16 9 73.3 17 -10.3  
PBT 551 480 14.9 555 -0.7  
Tax paid 139 122 13.8 137 1.5  
PAT 412 358 15.3 418 -1.5  

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