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  • CMP : 563.3 Chg : -5.95 (-1.05%)
  • Target : 935.0 (13.75%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

29 Jul 2022

Strong revenue growth drives Q1 performance…

About The Stock

Mold-Tek Packaging is a leading player in the rigid packaging business and is into manufacturing decorative packaging containers for paint, lubricant, FMCG & foods (F&F) industry.

  • It was the first to introduce in-mould label (IML) decorative products and QR coded packaging products in India
  • While new product launches helped drive profitability of the company, its balance sheet remained strong with RoCE, RoE of ~18%, 19% respectively (3-year average)
Q1FY23 Results

Strong revenue growth in Q1 led by customer additions

  • Strong revenue growth of 55% YoY to ~₹ 208 crore was led by ~49% volume growth. Favourable base and client additions drives volume in Q1
  • The gross margin declined ~366 bps YoY due to high cost inventory. EBITDA margin decline was restricted at 99 bps YoY by better operating leverage
  • PAT up ~80% YoY to ~ ₹ 22 crore; tracking sales growth in Q1
What should Investors do?

Mold-Tek’s share price has grown by ~3x over the past five years (from ₹ 280 in July 2017 to ~₹ 822 levels in July 2022).

  • We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price & Valuation

We value the stock at ₹ 935 i.e. 30x P/E on FY24E EPS

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Capacity addition (13% in the next two years), new launches (foraying into pharma packaging) and increasing wallet share from existing clients are expected to drive revenue
  • Aiming to increase EBITDA per kg to ₹ 42/kg from ₹ 35/kg in FY22. High margin ‘pump’ and IML based QR-coded products to drive EBITDA/kg
  • Balance sheet to remain healthy with low debt, high RoCE, RoEs
Alternate Stock Idea

We like Supreme Industries in our coverage.

Supreme Industries (SIL) is India’s leading plastic processing company with a presence in four major segments including piping systems, packaging products, industrial products & consumer product. It is the market leader in the PVC pipe industry with a value market share of 15%. It has a robust balance sheet with RoE & RoCE of 24% & 27% (five-year average)

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 2175

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 405.7 438.2 478.9 631.5 16.0 793.4 915.5 20.4
EBITDA 70.3 76.8 94.5 120.7 19.1 144.6 180.8 22.4
EBITDA Margin (%) 17.3 17.5 19.7 19.1 - 18.2 19.7 -
Net Profit 31.9 37.5 48.0 63.7 21.4 80.7 102.6 27.0
EPS (|) 11.5 13.4 17.2 20.4 - 24.3 30.9 -
P/E (x) 71.3 61.2 47.8 40.4 - 33.9 26.6 -
RoE (%) 16.7 19.0 18.7 13.9 - 22.6 22.8 -
RoCE (%) 18.0 18.6 20.1 18.6 - 26.1 26.5 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q1FY23 Results: Strong revenue growth on a favourable base and client additions

  • Revenue up by 55% YoY to | 208 crore led by ~49% volume growth in Q1FY23. Lube segment reported strong revenue growth of ~90% YoY to | 55 crore led by new customer additions. Food & FMCG (F&F) segment revenue increased 69% YoY to | 51 crore led by 66% volume growth supported by client additions, demand recovery from both edible oil and ice cream segment. Paint segment revenue increased ~43% YoY to | 102 crore largely on favourable base.
  • On a three-year basis, revenues grew at CAGR of 21% led by 12% volume growth. Segment wise, Paints, F&F and Lubs revenue grew at CAGR of 22%, 21% and 20% respectively
  • The gross margin declined 366 bps YoY in Q1FY23 mainly due to use of high cost inventory. The EBITDA margin came in at ~18%, down 99 bps YoY tacking lower gross margins. The EBITDA per kg improved on a QoQ basis to | 41, however down from | 42 as compared to same period last year
  • PAT was up by ~80% YoY to | 22 crore, tracking strong topline growth

Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

Demand Outlook: 

  • Mold-Tek is continuous witnessing strong demand traction from F&F players. The F&F companies are upgrading packaging of their products post opening up the economy. Mold-Tek has 3 confirmed projects and would be receiving the 4th project in the coming few weeks. The revenue potential is ~| 40 crore from all these four projects 
  • The company sees strong demand from the lubricants business led by customer addition (Exxonmobil, DEF). The management expects volume offtake from the lubricants segment to go up except for Q2FY23 where it expects a dip in demand for lubricants due to monsoon 
  • Mold-Tek’s pump segment is seeing an average performance and has added few new clients. The company has an order from Wipro of ~3 million units per month. However, the current order is at 8 lakh units per month. The volumes in this segment are expected to rise after Wipro sets up its plant in Hyderabad by the end of FY23. Company expects ~50% capacity utilization by the next year by adding new clients
  • The pump capacity is fungible and company can utilize the current machines for their thin wall packaging products  
  • The company is increasing its capacity at its plants in Mysore (from 54000 MT to 6300 MT) and Vizag (From 4800 MT to 6000 MT) to meet the increasing demand from Asian Paints. It is also in talks with Berger Paints and another paint company for creating additional capacities for them in the north. Demand from Paints segment is expected to increase from August 2022 onwards when paint companies start building stocks in anticipation of the festival season 

Margins: 

  • Mold-Tek passes its raw material price changes on a monthly or a quarterly basis to its clients depending upon its arrangements with them  
  • The management expects EBITDA margin to improve in the upcoming quarters led by softening of raw material prices
  • OTC pharma commands higher EBITDA per kg (in the range of 180-200/kg) as compared to | 80-120 EBITDA per kg of F&F and | 30-40 EBITDA per kg of Paints and Lubes respectively

 

 

Capex and Capacity Expansion: 

  • The company has envisaged a Capex of ₹250 crore for the next 2.5 to 3 years. Out of this, Mold-Tek has planned to invest ~₹125 crore in FY23 to enhance various capacities, set up new a plant at Daman to fulfill the requirements of FMCG and Food Companies 
  • Mold-Tek is planning to enhance its capacity from 44,000 tons to 54,000 tons by the end of FY23 

Other: 

  • Top five clients contribute ~65% of overall sales of the company. Asian Paints is the largest customer of the company followed by HUL, Castrol, Hutson Agro.
  • The key raw material is polypropylene copolymer and company procures 95% of their raw materials requirements domestically.
  • The company’s pilot plant to produce OTC products and sampling of pharma products would be starting by September or October 2023 
  • The capacity of this Injection Blow Moulding (IBM) pilot plant will be fully utilized as the company has received orders from one of the major FMCG companies in India for an OTC product. The moulds for the same are under development 
  • Mold-Tek is also planning on doubling its IML label printing capacity
  • The company passes on price hikes with the lag of one to three months (depending on client’s profile).
Variance Analysis
  Q1FY23 Q1FY22 YoY (%) Q4FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 207.8 133.7 55.4 177.9 16.8   Strong volume growth of ~49% YoY, largely on a favourable base drives topline
Other Income 0.1 0.1 11.1 1.1 -88    
               
Raw Material Exp 129.0 78.5 64.3 108.8 18.5   Use of high cost inventories drags gross margin (down by 337 bps YoY)
Employee cost 10.9 8.9 22.2 10.6 2.4    
Other Expenditure 30.8 21.1 46.0 26.7 15.4    
Total Expenditure 170.7 108.5 57.3 146.1 16.8    
EBITDA 37.2 25.2 47.2 31.8 16.9    
EBITDA Margin (%) 17.9 18.9 -99 bps 17.9 2 bps   Better operating leverage restricted EBITDA margin fall at 100 bps
Depreciation 7.1 6.2 15.8 6.9 3.8    
Interest 1.0 2.6 -61.9 1.1 -10.8    
               
PBT 29.2 16.6 76.1 24.8 17.4    
Total Tax 7.4 4.5 66.6 7.5 -0.9    
PAT 21.7 12.1 79.7 17.3 25.3   Lower PAT growth is led by decline in EBITDA margin and higher tax provisioning
Key Metrics*              
Paints 101.8 71.0 43.4 92.5 10.1   Favourable base and capacity expansion drives topline
Lubes 55.1 29.0 89.9 42.7 29.0   Customer addition helepd drive segment revenue
FMCG 50.9 30.2 68.5 42.5 19.9   Customer additions and wallet share gains drive segment revenue

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