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  • CMP : 569.3 Chg : -3.45 (-0.60%)
  • Target : 750.0 (6.99%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

11 May 2022

Higher input cost dents margin…

About The Stock

Mold-Tek Packaging is a leading player in the rigid packaging business and is into manufacturing decorative packaging containers for paint, lubricant, FMCG & foods (F&F) industry.

  • It was the first to introduce in-mould label (IML) decorative products and QR coded packaging products in India
  • While new product launches helped drive profitability of the company, its balance sheet remained strong with RoCE, RoE of ~21%
Q4FY22 Results

Delay in price hike dragged the overall EBITDA margin.

  • Higher raw material prices and delay in price hike dragged gross margin by 416 bps YoY in Q4FY22. However, savings in other expenses and employee costs restricted overall EBITDA margin fall to 200 bps YoY to 18%
  • Revenue growth at 10% YoY to ~Rs. 178 crore supported by volume growth of 6%. The volume growth was largely driven by paints & lubricant segment
  • PAT declined 4% YoY to ~ Rs.17 crore tracking sales growth in Q4
What should Investors do?

Mold-Tek’s share price has grown by ~2.3x over the past five years (from Rs. 299 May 2017 to ~Rs. 701 levels in May 2022).

  • We revise our rating from BUY to HOLD
Target Price and Valuation

We value the stock at Rs. 750 i.e. 25x P/E on FY24E EPS

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Capacity addition (11% in the next two years), new launches (foraying into pharma packaging) and increasing wallet share from existing clients are expected to drive revenue
  • Aiming to increase EBITDA per kg to Rs. 42/kg from Rs. 35/kg in FY22. High margin ‘pump’ and IML based QR-coded products to drive EBITDA/kg
  • Balance sheet to remain healthy with low debt, high RoCE, RoEs
Alternate Stock Idea

We like Supreme Industries in our coverage universe.

  • Supreme is market leader in plastic piping segment with ~14% market share. Robust b/s with average RoE, RoCE of 24%, 27%, respectively
  • BUY with a target price of Rs. 2320

Key Financial Summary

(Rs# Crore) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 405.7 438.2 478.9 631.5 16.0 716.4 867.4 17.2
EBITDA 70.3 76.8 94.5 120.7 19.1 137.6 171.8 19.3
EBITDA Margin (%) 17.3 17.5 19.7 19.1 - 19.2 19.8 -
Net Profit 31.9 37.5 48.0 63.7 21.4 77.4 98.0 24.1
EPS (|) 11.5 13.4 17.2 20.4 - 23.3 29.5 -
P/E (x) 60.8 52.2 40.8 34.4 - 29.6 23.4 -
RoE (%) 16.7 19.0 18.7 13.9 - 21.9 22.2 -
RoCE (%) 18.0 18.6 20.1 18.6 - 25.1 25.6 -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q4FY22 Results:

  • Revenue increased ~11% YoY to ~ Rs. 178 crore in Q4FY22, supported by 6% volume growth. Lube and paint segment revenue increased ~33% and 8% YoY, respectively. The FMCG segment revenue declined ~2% YoY due to a sharp fall in demand from the edible oil segment
  • EBITDA margin declined 200 bps YoY to ~18% mainly due to higher raw material prices. As a result, PAT declined 4% YoY ~Rs. 17 crore

Q4FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • New client addition
    • The company has received a commitment from Unilever and GSK for new packaging products. The revenue potential from these customers will be in the range of Rs. 30-35 crores annually
  • Demand outlook:
    • Mold Tek Packaging witnessed volume growth of ~11% in FY22 led by launch of new products, increased capacity and customer addition. The company expects volume growth of 15-20% in FY23E
    • The company has received new order from Gulf Oil Lubricants India for its QR coded IML packaging containers
    • Injection blow moulding (IBM) category is about Rs. 200 crore revenue opportunity for the company in the next 2-3 years
    • China+1 concept followed by various countries is expected to boost revenue for plastic and IML containers category
    • The company has planned to launch three to four new products in the FMCG segment. These products along with IBM and OTC segments are expected to contribute Rs. 30 crore to sales
    • The company is working on doubling its in-mould label (IML) printing capacity. The total expected capacity for FY23E is expected to be ~52500 MT from 44500MT in FY22
  • Margins:
    • Management has guided for complete pass on of higher raw material costs thereby regaining lost margin in the coming quarters
  • Capex:
    • A total capex of Rs. 200 crore is planned over the next two years
    • In FY23E, the company is planning a capex of Rs. 80 crore and around Rs. 80-100 crore in FY24E for its IBM Pharma packaging and paint segment
Variance Analysis
  Q4FY22 Q4FY21 YoY (%) Q3FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 177.9 161.0 10.5 160.3 11.0   Revenue growth supported by volume growth 6% YoY
Other Income 1.1 0.4 154.8 0.2 595    
               
Raw Material Exp 108.8 91.8 18.5 94.6 15.0   Higher raw material prices weigh on gross margins
Employee cost 10.6 10.3 3.3 9.8 8.2    
 Other Expenditure  26.7 27.0 -1.0 24.3 10.0    
Total Expenditure 146.1 129.1 13.2 128.7 13.6    
EBITDA 31.8 32.0 -0.6 31.6 0.5    
EBITDA Margin (%) 17.9 19.9 -200 bps 19.7 -186 bps   Decline in EBITDA margin mainly due to higher raw material costs
Depreciation 6.9 5.8 17.6 6.9 0.2    
Interest 1.1 2.9 -60.7 2.8 -59.0    
               
PBT 24.8 23.7 4.9 22.2 12.1    
Total Tax 7.5 5.6 33.4 5.5 36.9    
PAT 17.3 18.0 -4.0 16.7 3.9   Lower PAT growth is led by decline in EBITDA margin and higher tax provisioning
               
Key Metrics*              
Paints 92.5 85.4 8.4 86.8 6.5   Paint segment revenue growth was led by price hikes however volume growth was lower at 2% YoY
Lubes 42.7 32.2 32.6 36.9 15.7   Topline recovery on a favourable base
FMCG 42.5 43.5 -2.3 36.6 16.0   Flattish volume in the segment was mainly due to lower demand of edible oil during Q4 (contributes ~40% in segment revenue)

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