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  • CMP : 572.7 Chg : -7.20 (-1.24%)
  • Target : 1,045.0 (11.65%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

08 Nov 2022

Customer additions drive volume offtake in Q2…

About The Stock

Mold-Tek Packaging is a leading player in the rigid packaging business and is into manufacturing decorative packaging containers for paint, lubricant, FMCG & foods (F&F) industry.

  • It was the first to introduce in-mould label (IML) decorative products and QR coded packaging products in India
  • While new product launches helped drive profitability of the company, its balance sheet remained strong with RoCE, RoE of ~18%, 19% respectively (3-year average)
Q2FY23 Results

Continuous customer addition in Q2 drove overall volume growth

  • Revenues were up by ~14% YoY to ~₹ 183 crore led by ~11% volume growth. Customer additions in the FMCG and Lubes segment drove overall volumes. Paint segments volume offtake hit by extended monsoons  
  • Stabilising raw material prices and improved sales mix led to marginal increase in gross margin. However, EBITDA margin declined by 142 bps YoY dragged by higher power & fuels and logistic costs
  • PAT up by ~10% YoY to ~ ₹ 19 crore; tracking sales growth and lower interest cost in Q2
What should Investors do?

Mold-Tek’s share price has grown by ~3x over the past five years (from ₹ 311 in November 2017 to ~₹ 936 levels in November 2022).

  • We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value the stock at ₹ 1045 i.e. 30xP/E on FY24E EPS

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Capacity addition (23% in the next two years), new launches (foraying into pharma packaging) and increasing wallet share from existing clients are expected to drive revenue
  • Aiming to increase EBITDA per kg to ₹ 42/kg from ₹ 35/kg in FY22. High margin FMCG & pharma products to drive EBITDA/kg
  • Balance sheet to remain healthy with low debt, high RoCE, RoEs
Alternate Stock Idea

We like Supreme Industries (SIL) in our coverage. SIL is the market leader in the PVC pipe industry with a value market share of 15%. We believe SIL’s piping segment will report a volume CAGR of 19% over FY22-24E supported by revival in agri, housing and infrastructure pipe demand.  It has a robust balance sheet with RoE & RoCE of 24% & 27% (five-year average)

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 2600

Key Financial Summary

| Crore FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5Year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2Year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 405.7 438.2 478.9 631.5 16.0 804.8 976.1 24.3
EBITDA 70.3 76.8 94.5 120.7 19.1 151.7 193.1 26.5
EBITDA Margin (%) 17.3 17.5 19.7 19.1 - 18.8 19.8 -
Net Profit 31.9 37.5 48.0 63.7 21.4 88.6 114.3 34.0
EPS (|) 11.5 13.4 17.2 20.4 - 26.7 34.4 -
P/E (x) 81.2 69.7 54.5 46.0 - 35.1 27.2 -
RoE (%) 16.7 19.0 18.7 13.9 - 24.3 24.3 -
RoCE (%) 18.0 18.6 20.1 18.6 - 27.6 27.9 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q2FY23 Results: customer additions in the FMCG & Lubes segment drives volume offtake in Q2

  • Revenue up by 14% YoY to | 183 crore led by ~11% volume growth in Q2FY23. FMCG and Lube segment reported strong volume growth of 27% and 31% YoY respectively led by customer additions and wallet share gains of existing customers. Paint segment volume offtake was flattish mainly due to extended monsoons.  
  • On a three-year basis, revenues grew at CAGR of 17% led by 11% volume growth. Segment wise while Paints revenue grew at CAGR of 15%, the other two segments FMCG and Lubs revenue grew at CAGR of 19% each led by customer additions
  • Stabilising raw material prices and improved sales mix (tilt towards high margin pharma/FMCG business) led to marginal increase in gross margins. However, EBITDA margin declined by ~142 bps YoY to 18.7% mainly due to sharp increase in power & fuel cost and logistic costs.
  • PAT was up by ~10% YoY to ~| 19 crore, tracking higher topline growth and lower interest costs

Q2FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

Demand Outlook: 

  • Management has guided volume CAGR of ~20% over FY22-24E supported by launch of new products, customer additions and wallet share gains of existing customers 

 

Margins: 

  • The management expects EBITDA margin of ~20-21% supported by stabilising raw material prices, improved sales mix (tilt towards Pharma/FMCG products which commands higher margin than Paints/Lubes) and positive operating leverage led by improved utilisation of new plants
  • OTC pharma commands higher EBITDA per kg (in the range of 180-200/kg) as compared to | 80-120 EBITDA per kg of F&F and | 30-40 EBITDA per kg of Paints and Lubes respectively 

New product launches: 

  • The company is likely to start manufacturing of packaging product for GSK’s OTC product IODEX
  • It takes ~3-6 months’ time to get approval for OTC pharma products. The commercial production of pharma products is likely to start from Q3FY24 onwards.
  • The company has developed new molds for 1kg/2kg SKUs for Horlicks and manufacturing will start from Q4FY23 onwards 

Capex:

  • The company plans to expand its manufacturing capacity by ~25,000 MT by FY24 (up by 51% over FY22). The company is likely to incur capex of | 125 crore in FY23

Others:

  • Loss of production due to delay in installation of IML printing machines (amid shortage of semiconductors). Company would have recorded 15% volume growth in Q2FY23, had there been not delay in the supply of IML printing machines. 
  • These machines are expected to commissioned by the end of Dec’22. This will lead to normalization of EBITDA margin from Q4FY23 onwards
  • Hyderabad will be one of the largest pharma hubs in the next two years (as 15000 acres of lands has been allotted to multiple pharma players to boost manufacturing). Mold-Tek packaging is confident of receiving meaningful businesses from large pharma players for its IBM packaging products due to its strong R&D driven product launches and lower lead distance.
  • Mold Tek has witnessed poor volume offtake of its dispensing pumps products from Wipro. The company is taking ~2-3 lakh pumps/month from Mold Tek Vs expectation of ~2-3 million pumps. The company has added other customers such as ‘Himalaya’ for the same product. However, the offtake is still lower at 1mn pumps per month Vs overall manufacturing capacity of 5-6mn pumps.
  • The company has invested | 12-13 crore for its dispensing pump machines and molds. While the machines are fungibles and can be used to produce other FMCG products, the sunk cost of total investment will be limited to cost of molds which is ~ | 2-3 crore (in case of business loss).
  • There was delay in launching of QR based packaging products. The key customers under Lubes ‘Volvoline’ and ‘Castrol’ has asked Mold Tek for modification in the QR coded products. Mold Tek expects fresh orders from one of these customers from Q4FY23 onwards. 
  • Company has received letter of intent from Aditya Birla Group (ABG) to set up a facility at Panipat, Haryana. Company is planning to acquire 2 acres of land at Panipat for setting up a new plant with an investment of | 30 crore to cater to the requirements of Aditya Birla Group and Food & FMCG clients (to cater Baddi based clients). The manufacturing facility will be ready by end of CY23.
  • The company expects volume of ~2000 MTPA from ABG group from FY25 onwards.

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