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Uno Minda Ltd>
  • CMP : 716.9 Chg : -4.45 (-0.62%)
  • Target : 1,050.0 (19.32%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

25 May 2022

Recent price correction offers opportune time to enter

About The Stock

Minda Industries (MIL) is India’s largest maker of automotive switches, horns, seats & PV alloy wheels and third largest automotive lighting player.

  • FY22 segment mix – 4-W 53%, 2-W 47%; switches, lighting, castings, horns and seats comprised 30%, 21%, 16%, 8% and 11% of sales, respectively
  • History of vast outperformance vs. user industries riding on growth in kit value, new client and product additions & inorganic acquisitions
Q4FY22

The company posted healthy Q4FY22 results.

  • Consolidated revenues were at ₹ 2,415 crore, up 10.7% QoQ
  • EBITDA margins for the quarter came in at 11.4%, up 60 bps QoQ
  • Consolidated PAT in Q4FY22 was at ₹ 144.4 crore, up 42.5% QoQ
What should Investors do?

MIL’s has been one of our early finds with stock price nearly 4x since our initiation in April 2020, vastly outperforming the Nifty Auto index.

  • Given the recent correction in stock price, MIL is now within our comfortable valuation matrix. Hence, we upgrade the stock from HOLD to BUY.
Target Price Valuation

We value the company at a revised target price of ₹ 1,050 i.e. 42x P/E (~1x PEG) on FY24E EPS of ₹ 25 (previous target ₹ 1,115).

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • We build 15.7% FY22-24E net sales CAGR riding on OEM ramp up, focus on premiumisation, expanded capacity, penchant to grow ahead of industry
  • Minimal EV risk; actively working on EV-specific products
  • Increasing share of new age products (sensors, alloy wheels, airbags, etc)
  • Mix, operating leverage to push margins, RoCE to 12.5%, 15.9% (FY24E)
  • B/s strength, with FY22 debt: equity at 0.2x. We expect gross debt to have peaked out with organic growth to be funded through internal accruals
New Stock Ideas

Besides MIL, in our ancillary coverage we like Apollo Tyres.

  • India CV revival beneficiary focused on debt reduction, higher return ratios

 

  • BUY with target price of ₹ 250

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22P 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 5,908.1 6,222.0 6,373.7 8,313.0 19.1 9,692.1 11,123.4 15.7
EBITDA 725.2 671.8 725.0 885.4 18.2 1,138.8 1,390.4 25.3
EBITDA Margins (%) 12.3 10.8 11.4 10.7 - 11.8 12.5 -
Net Profit 285.6 155.2 206.6 355.8 16.2 546.6 713.1 41.6
EPS (₹) 10.9 5.9 7.6 12.5 - 19.1 25.0 -
P/E 80.8 148.7 115.8 70.6 - 46.0 35.2 -
RoNW (%) 19.0 8.3 9.2 10.3 - 13.9 15.6 -
RoCE (%) 15.7 9.3 9.1 10.2 - 13.1 15.9 -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Q4FY22 Results: Handsome beat on all fronts

  • Consolidated EBITDA for Q4FY22 was a | 275.5 crore with attendant margins up 60 bps QoQ at 11.4%. Gross margin expanded ~20 bps QoQ with substantial savings realised under other expenses, which were down ~60 bps on a QoQ basis
  • Reported consolidated PAT for the quarter was at | 144.4 crore, up 42.5% QoQ. Profitability beat was aided by higher other income as well as higher profit from associates
  • The company declared a final dividend of | 1 per share for FY22 with total dividend for FY22 pegged at | 1.5/share. The board has also approved bonus issue of equity shares in the ratio of 1:1 with record date for the same being fixed as June 10, 2022

Q4FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • The quarterly performance was primarily led by the PV segment whereas
    2-W continued to be affected by sluggish demands. Further margins remained under pressure due to elevated input prices but with premiumisation the company was able to improve upon the same
  • On the supply chain front, disruption is easing up but is expected to persist for a further two to three quarters. The company is cautiously optimistic on the demand prospects amid improving semiconductor supply, benefitting the PV segment
  • MIL had applied for Auto PLI scheme for sensors, ADAS, controllers & EV specific products (e.g. BMS, Charger) and has been approved for the same
  • The company is witnessing good traction in EV OEMs amid a sharp uptick in monthly run rate in E-2-W sales. The company is focusing on deeper penetration among existing EV clients. It has also received orders for battery chargers, which are jointly developed by FRIWO
  • Depreciation remained higher due to higher utilisation level & capitalisation of expense. Further employee cost rise was due to onetime expense of
    ~| 15 crore booked as Esop expense
  • The company has acquired additional stake partnerships to consolidate the same with various associates entity turning green causing profit from associate to rise QoQ. The management expects this run rate to continue, going forward
  • The management has received order for switches from Japanese 4-W OEM and plans to establish additional facility with capex of ~| 73 crore to be operationalise by March 23. Further the management informed about potential rise in kit value to extend of 5-20% due to premiumisation
  • Revenue for Mindarika was at ~| 830 crore in FY22 vs. | 630 crore in FY21
  • Revenue from 2-W alloy segment is ~| 90 crore (during Q4FY22) with
    ~| 280 crore in FY22. The 4-W alloy wheels topline for Q4FY22 was at | 250 crore with total for year at | 800 crore
  • Capex spend for FY23 is planned around ~| 550-600 crore including | 37 crore for expansion of Indonesian plant & |73 crore for Mindarika expansion. Out of total ~| 260 crore would be for maintenance
  • Sensors, controllers, telematics combined revenue for FY22 were at ~| 220 crore. At the company level, margins are expected to remain in a range of 11-12%, going forward, supported by alloy wheels’ division where margins are higher than group margins on a consolidated basis

Terms & conditions and other disclosures

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Shashank Kanodia, CFA, MBA (Capital Markets), and Raghvendra Goyal, CA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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