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  • CMP : 517.9 Chg : -1.40 (-0.27%)
  • Target : 790.0 (0.64%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

16 Aug 2022

Healthy paid subs growth; weak numbers in Q2 on seasonality…

About The Stock

Matrimony.com (Matrimony) is one of the leading providers of online matchmaking services. The company also provides post marriage services.

  • Apart from a common website, the company operates ~300 community matrimony sites and 15 regional matrimony sites
  • Net debt free and only profitable player among its peers
Q1FY23 Results

Matrimony reported healthy numbers on paid subs.

  • Revenues increased 4.9% QoQ aided by 8.7% QoQ growth in paid subs
  • Matchmaking EBITDA services margins improved 74 bps QoQ
  • Marriage services EBITDA loss widens
What should Investors do?

Matrimony’s share price has dipped over the past four years (from ~₹ 905 in September 2017 to ~₹ 785 levels in August 2022).

  • We maintain HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value Matrimony at ₹ 790 i.e. 22x P/E FY24E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Market leadership in an underpenetrated online matchmaking segment
  • Transition to online from offline, healthy subscriber addition, increased penetration in north, introduction of new products and inorganic opportunity key revenue drivers (11% CAGR over FY22-24E)
  • Higher conversion rate (paid vs. total profiles)
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from Matrimony, in our IT coverage we also like Affle.

  • Key beneficiary of advertising shift to digital medium and healthy growth in converted users
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1,295

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 348.4 371.8 377.9 434.5 8.2 480.1 533.9 10.8
EBITDA 74.3 54.5 67.5 87.0 8.1 106.0 120.8 17.9
EBITDA Margins (%) 21.3 14.7 17.9 20.0 - 22.1 22.6 -
Net Profit 42.5 29.5 40.8 53.6 6.8 68.3 79.5 21.8
EPS (|) 18.6 13.0 17.8 23.4 - 30.7 35.8 -
P/E 42.2 60.4 43.9 33.5 - 25.6 22.0 -
RoNW (%) 21.0 12.9 15.5 17.3 - 18.7 18.6 -
RoCE (%) 25.9 16.2 19.0 21.2 - 23.1 23.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • The company’s matchmaking revenues were up 4.7% QoQ, 8.9% YoY to
    | 114.2 crore. This was aided by paid subscription growth while ATV was down QoQ as well as YoY due to discounting. The company added 250,000 paid subs during the quarter, up 7.2% QoQ & 13.8% YoY, while ATV declined 5.6% QoQ & 4% YoY to | 4,553
  • Marriage services revenue was up 20% QoQ to | 1.8 crore while it increased 3x over Q1FY22 on a favourable base. Marriage services EBITDA loss widened to | 3.4 crore during the quarter
  • Billing for matchmaking services was up 1.2% QoQ, 9.5% YoY to | 114.6 crore while that of marriage services was up 5.3% QoQ while it was up 3x YoY to | 2 crore. At the consolidated level, billing increased 1.2% QoQ, 10.7% YoY to | 116.5 crore
  • Matrimony indicated that ATV has declined for the quarter due to some discounts given due to increase in competitive intensity and also its strategy to MphasiS on aggressive paid subscription addition in the coming quarters. The company is looking to reach 1.5 mn paid subs in the next three to four years
  • The EBITDA margin for the quarter was largely flattish despite strong revenue growth due to increase in employee as well as advertising and promotion expenses on a sequential basis. The company indicated that it rolled out wage hikes in Q1 (average 8-9% increase) resulted in increasing the employee cost by 8.6% QoQ to | 36.2 crore. The advertising & promotion expenses remained elevated at | 44.2 crore, up 2.7% QoQ and 18.9% YoY amid highly competitive market. The company also indicated that advertisement & marketing expenses would remain elevated, going forward, as well and may rethink on the spend level, if there is any meaningful reduction of marketing spend at the industry level
  • The company’s effective tax rate for the quarter declined from 26.1% in Q4FY22 to 20.9% in Q1FY23. Matrimony indicated that the tax rate was low due to lower tax on realised gains on redemption of mutual funds, which was used for funding the buyback
  • The company guided that Q2 being a seasonally weak quarter for the company, EBITDA & PAT numbers would be lower than Q1FY23 levels
  • Matrimony reiterated that the Shaadi saga is fully integrated and now both brands work under one umbrella. The company indicated that its performance is now expected to pick up as the economy opens
  • The company has indicated certain milestones, which they are planning to achieve in the next three to four years. i) The company is aiming to reach its topline to | 1000 crore in the medium term, while immediate target is to reach around | 500 crore revenue by FY23 ii) it is looking to reach | 300 crore EBITDA when the revenues are expected to touch | 1000 crore i.e. 30% EBITDA margin in that year. iii) 1.5 mn paid subscription
  • The company has earlier announced a buyback of | 75 crore at | 1,150 per equity share proposing to brought back 652,173 shares in last quarter. The buyback closed on August 8, 2022 and the last date for payment of consideration to eligible shareholders who participated in the buyback is August 22, 2022
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q1FY23   Q1FY22   YoY (%)   Q4FY22   QoQ (%)  Comments
Revenue 116.0 105.5 10.0 110.6 4.9 Revenue growth was aided by 8.7% QoQ growth in paid subs
Employee expenses 36.2 33.8 7.8 33.6 8.6  
Gross Margin 79.8 71.7 11.4 77.0 3.7  
Gross margin (%) 68.8 68.0 84 bps 69.6 -84 bps  
SG&A expenses 60.1 49.4 21.6 58.4 2.9  
             
EBITDA 19.8 22.3 -11.2 18.6 6.0  
EBITDA Margin (%) 17.0 21.1 -408 bps 16.8 18 bps EBITDA margins were flat due increase in employee cost & continued elevated marketing spend
Depreciation & amortisation 7.7 6.4 19.6 7.0 10.2  
EBIT 12.1 15.8 -23.7 11.7 3.5  
Finance cost 1.6 1.2 34 bps 1.4 18 bps  
EBIT Margin (%) 10.4 15.0 -461 bps 10.6 -14 bps  
Other income (less interest) 4.7 4.2 12.5 5.7 -16.7  
PBT 15.1 18.6 -18.6 15.8 -4.5  
Tax paid 3.2 4.8 -33.5 4.1 -23.3 PAT helped by lower ETR due to low tax rate on realized gains on mutual fund redemption
PAT 12.0 13.8 -13.5 11.7 2.1  

Disclaimer

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