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Matrimony.com Ltd>
  • CMP : 553.0 Chg : -12.20 (-2.16%)
  • Target : 520.0 (6.81%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

10 Feb 2023

Likely miss of FY23 revenue target; marketing spend in FY24 similar to FY23

About The Stock

Matrimony.com (Matrimony) is one of the leading providers of online matchmaking services. The company also provides post marriage services.

  • Apart from a common website, the company operates ~300 community matrimony sites and 15 regional matrimony sites
  • Net debt free and only profitable player among its peers
Q3FY23 Results

Matrimony reported weak numbers in Q3FY23.

  • Matchmaking services revenue down 4.2% QoQ while consolidated revenue was down 3.9% QoQ
  • Matchmaking services EBITDA margins declined ~520 bps QoQ to 17.8%
  • Paid subscribers declined 1.7% QoQ and ATV improved 3.2% QoQ
What should Investors do?

Matrimony’s share price has dipped over the past five years (from ~₹ 875 in February 2018 to ~₹ 558 levels in February 2023).

We change our rating on the stock from HOLD to REDUCE

Target Price and Valuation

We value Matrimony at ₹ 520 i.e. 19x P/E FY25E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Market leadership in an underpenetrated online matchmaking segment
  • Transition to online from offline, healthy subscriber addition, increased penetration in north, introduction of new products and inorganic opportunity key revenue drivers (5.8% CAGR over FY22-25E)
  • Higher conversion rate (paid vs. total profiles)
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from Matrimony, in our IT coverage we also like Affle.

  • Key beneficiary of advertising shift to digital medium and healthy growth in converted users
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1,255

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 4 Year CAGR(FY18-FY22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 Year CAGR (FY22-FY25E)
Net Sales 371.8 377.9 434.5 8.2 453.3 476.7 514.6 5.8
EBITDA 54.5 67.5 87.0 8.1 64.8 76.3 92.6 2.1
EBITDA Margins (%) 14.7 17.9 20.0 - 14.3 16.0 18.0 -
Net Profit 29.5 40.8 53.6 6.8 38.9 48.0 60.9 4.3
EPS (|) 13.0 17.8 23.4 - 17.5 21.6 27.4 -
P/E 43.0 31.2 23.8 - 31.9 25.9 20.4 -
RoNW (%) 12.9 15.5 17.3 - 11.4 12.6 14.2 -
RoCE (%) 16.2 19.0 21.2 - 14.1 15.5 17.3 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • The company’s matchmaking revenues declined 4.2% QoQ to | 107.8 crore while they were up 0.6% YoY. The company indicated that decline in revenue was due to lower billings in Q2. The company’s matchmaking services EBITDA margins declined ~520 bps QoQ to 17.8% while in absolute terms the reported EBITDA was | 19.2 crore, down 25.9% QoQ
  • During the quarter, the company added 2.4 lakh paid subscribers, down 1.7% QoQ & up 10.7% YoY. ATV of the company increased 3.2% QoQ to
    | 4,535 while YoY it declined 7.8%. ATV of the company improved in Q3 due to better product mix (premium customer addition higher). The company indicated that for Q4FY23, it expects ATV to be lower. It continues to offer discounts for acquiring new profiles & conversions across its various service categories
  • In the marriage services segment, the company reported revenue of | 2.6 crore, up 9.4% QoQ & 97.4% YoY. On the margins front, its EBITDA losses declined to | 3.1 crore compared to | 3.3 crore in the previous quarter. Billing and revenues for matchmaking business are still down 32% and 40%, respectively, from pre-Covid levels
  • At the company level, it reported consolidated revenue of | 110.4 crore, down 3.9% QoQ and up 1.8% YoY. On the margins front, it reported an EBITDA of | 12.5 crore, down 32.6% QoQ and 37% YoY while the corresponding EBITDA margins declined 480 bps QoQ to 11.3%. It indicated that decline in margins was due to negative operating leverage. The company during the quarter spent | 46.1 crore on advertisement & marketing compared to | 45 crore in the last quarter. Out of the | 46.1 crore it spent | 45.2 crore, up 1.8% QoQ on matchmaking services marketing expenses
  • The company indicated that since billing has improved in Q3, it expects steady revenue growth in Q4 this year. The company is targeting around 21-22% EBITDA margins in matchmaking services in Q4FY23. It also indicated that for FY24, it continues to work on paid conversion strategy, which is expected to drive growth in FY24. The company also indicated that it expects continued pressure on ATV in FY24 due to competitive intensity (read: some features being offered complementary by the competition i.e. Jeevansathi). The company also indicated it would like to continue to capitalise on its strength i.e. market leadership in south, west and east market to drive paid subs growth while competitive intensity remained elevated in the north market. It also indicated that it had not seen meaningful growth in the north market despite its acquisition of Shadisaga recently and indicated it is re-working on strategy for business growth in the north market
  • The company mentioned that as far as the international market is concerned, the competition is widely spread over countries and the user base is not growing at a healthy pace over there also. Matrimony also indicated it is difficult to grow the business in the international market on its own unless one has local partners there. The company mentioned it may look at roping in some local partners in international markets for its growth, going forward
  • The company indicated that in its Elite matrimony (that is a premium product of the company with annual billings of more than 20,000 per person) is still a small part of its overall portfolio. Matrimony also mentioned that it continues to focus on growth of this business but also observed that the user base is more skewed towards females in this profile while it is finding it difficult to attract males here, which has been a major obstacle for growth in the business
  • On marketing spend, the company mentioned it needs to incur marketing spend for the continued visibility of its brand. The company also mentioned that large part of its advertising takes place on TV while digital advertising still forms a small part of this spend. The company mentioned it has seen some moderation of marketing spending by the competition. Hence, now it is also open to a scaled down marketing spend. The company indicated that FY24 marketing spends are likely to be in the same range as that of FY23 and do not expect it to cross the range of 38-40% of sales
  • The company during the quarter reported other income of | 9.9 crore including | 5.8 crore for profit on sale of land, which it had purchased from IPO proceeds. The company mentioned the land was sold for a total consideration of | 49.4 crore. It has deposited the proceeds in a separate account. It further mentioned that the proceeds from sale of land will be utilised within a year on marketing spend. It has appointed a monitoring agency to oversee the utilisation of the same
  • Billings for matchmaking services increased 1.6% QoQ to | 108.3 crore while marriage services reported billing of | 3.1 crore, up 22.2% QoQ. At a consolidated level, the company reported billings of | 111.4 crore, up 2.1% QoQ
  • The company indicated that its recently launched Jodi app is still in the early stage, which forms a small part of its business. It is exploring strategies to grow this segment
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q3FY23   Q3FY22   YoY (%)   Q2FY23   QoQ (%)  Comments
Revenue 110.4 108.5 1.7 114.9 -3.9 Matchmaking services revenue declined by 4.2% QoQ  while marriage services revenue grew by 9.4% QoQ
Employee expenses 36.6 33.8 9.2 36.3 0.7  
Gross Margin 73.8 74.7 -1.3 78.5 -6.0  
Gross margin (%) 66.9 68.9 -202 bps 68.4 -150 bps  
SG&A expenses 61.3 54.9 11.6 60.0 2.2 Marketing spend increase by 1.9% QoQ to |46.1 crore
             
EBITDA 12.5 19.8 -37.0 18.5 -32.6  
EBITDA Margin (%) 11.3 18.2 -694 bps 16.1 -481 bps  
Depreciation & amortisation 7.4 6.9 6.9 7.7 -4.0  
EBIT 5.1 12.9 -60.4 10.8 -52.8  
Finance cost 1.5 1.4 5 bps 1.5 -5 bps  
EBIT Margin (%) 4.6 11.9 -726 bps 9.4 -480 bps  
Other income (less interest) 10.0 4.1 143.6 4.2 137.0 Other income include profit on sale of land of |5.8 crore
PBT 13.8 15.5 -10.9 13.7 0.7  
Tax paid 2.0 4.0 -48.9 2.0 3.0  
PAT 11.7 11.5 2.1 11.7 0.3  

Disclaimer

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