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Mastek Ltd>
  • CMP : 2,529.6 Chg : -40.85 (-1.59%)
  • Target : 1,800.0 (7.66%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

23 Oct 2022

Acquisition aids growth; organic growth continues to be muted

About The Stock

Mastek Ltd (Mastek) offers data, apps, cloud services to public & private enterprise in the UK, US, Middle East, Asia Pacific and India

  • The company’s recent acquisition of Evosys has enabled Mastek to provide end-to-end solutions and improves margins from ~14% to 21%
  • Net debt free and healthy double digit return ratio (with RoCE of 20%)
Q2FY23 Results:

Reported strong revenue growth in Q2FY23 aided by acquisition.

  • Revenue grew 10.7% QoQ in CC terms and 6.1% in dollar terms
  • EBITDA margin declined ~200 bps QoQ to 17.2%
  • Reported 12M order backlog of US$187.1 mn, down 2.1%QoQ
What should Investors do?

Mastek’s share price has grown by ~5.3x over the past five years (from ~₹ 318 in October 2017 to ~₹ 1,672 levels in October 2022).

  • We maintain HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value Mastek at ₹ 1,800 i.e. 13x P/E on FY25E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Growth in new logo acquisition, increasing deal size, expansion of sales & marketing and market share gains to drive revenues
  • Management change in the US region may help it to grow stronger & achieve desired revenue mix
  • Acquisition of MST solutions will help drive growth in US region
  • Expect revenues to grow at 12.5% CAGR in FY22-25E
Alternate Stock Idea:

Apart from Mastek, in our IT coverage we also like Infosys.

  • Key beneficiary of improved digital demand, industry leading revenue growth & healthy capital allocation prompt us to be positive

 

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1,670

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR (FY22-25E)
Net Sales 1,071.5 1,721.9 2,183.8 31.3 2,442.0 2,742.0 3,110.4 12.5
EBITDA 155.4 364.5 462.5 57.0 464.0 526.5 603.4 9.3
EBITDA Margins (%) 14.5 21.2 21.2 - 19.0 19.2 19.4 -
Net Profit 133.0 209.4 295.1 55.5 292.7 343.7 393.9 10.1
EPS (|) 52.4 81.9 103.8 - 102.9 120.9 138.5 -
P/E 31.9 20.4 16.1 - 16.2 13.8 12.1 -
RoNW (%) 16.8 24.4 27.5 - 22.3 21.6 20.6 -
RoCE (%) 11.3 21.5 26.7 - 23.3 23.0 22.4 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of quarter and conference call highlights

  • The company reported strong growth of 10.7% QoQ growth in CC term while dollar revenue came in at US$78.1 mn, up 6.1% QoQ (aided by acquisition, organic growth in low single digit QoQ). In rupee terms, revenue was at | 625.3 crore, up 9.7% QoQ. Revenue includes one-month revenue from its acquired company Metasoftech Solutions LLC, US (MST)

 

  • In terms of geographies, growth was led by the US region reporting growth of 40.9% QoQ while UK & ME regions reported growth of 1.3% & 4.1% QoQ, respectively

 

  • In terms of verticals, all verticals except health & lifescience reported growth with government, retail, financial services & manufacturing reporting growth of 15%, 11.7%, 11.1% & 26.4% QoQ, respectively. Health & Lifescience continue to be under pressure and declined 15.7% QoQ

 

  • The EBITDA margin declined ~200 bps QoQ to 17.2%. The company indicated that its margins in Q2 was impacted by implementation of wage hike, increase in sub-contractor costs due to ramp up & currency headwinds

 

  • As far as the UK government market is concerned, the company mentioned that despite lot of geopolitical uncertainties unfolding in the market, it does not expect any material impact on its operations in the country. It has been operating in the market for last 18 years and they work on critical programs there such as border security, trade, visa application processing (process 5 million (mn) visa on annual basis), etc. It also said that it works closely with multiple layers in the government programs. Any changes in top layers should not impact its business and these relationships act as an entry barrier for the competition

 

  • The company indicated that the Europe market (ex-UK) witnessed slower decision making across clients and but since major chunk of its business is in UK, it should not affect it materially. The company also mentioned that UK private market is doing well for it

 

  • As far as the US market is concerned, the company indicated that its account mining strategy has started yielding results but it says that it is taking longer time than expected. The company said that its top 25 clients contribute 70% of revenue in the market and it is tracking this metric very closely. The company indicated that historically it was dependent heavily on Oracle to give it business in the market but now it is connecting clients directly. The company said that account mining of top 25 accounts remains a top priority. It is looking to capture Fortune 1000 clients, which grew 2.5x for it in the last few years. The company expects the US market to perform better in H2

 

  • As far as healthcare vertical is concerned, the company indicated it provides four services including digital and shared services. It provides these services across UK, US and Middle East. The company indicated that decision making has been slower in the last couple of quarters and it is impacting the growth. It also indicated that deal constructs also going through major changes including more spread out deals now vs. two to three years time frame. In this vertical, it had won account in US (e.g. it recently revamped member portal of ‘Banner Health’ client). Working on customer experience program for the client. The company also indicated that healthcare vertical in the UK is now open to shift some part of their programs to offshoring. The company is targeting 30% revenue mix from this vertical by FY26. This includes healthcare part of its recently acquired company MST that also has healthcare. Current level is bottom. We expect growth and reaching 30% for healthcare and life sciences as a vertical

   

  • The company expects to acquire 10% Evosys stake as per the earlier agreement and expects the transaction to be funded through its own cash as Mastek expects healthy cash generation in H2. Mastek is also open to small tuck in acquisitions in the future. For US$1 bn revenue target, which it is looking to reach in second half of the decade, the company is looking to raise funds to achieve this target and they will raise it at an appropriate time

 

  • The company also indicated that it is looking to rationalise client numbers as it has a long tail of clients. Mastek is also looking to rationalise those accounts where scalability is the issue. The company have identified 40-45 such accounts and has assigned the responsibility of the same on one of its top executives. In these 40-45 accounts, 10 are from UK, while US and MEA has 20-25 and 10 clients, respectively

 

  • It has added 20 clients in this quarters, out of which five clients have annual revenues of more than US$1 bn

 

  • The company’s LTM declined 80 bps QoQ to 24.2% and utilisation excluding trainees declined 250 bps QoQ to 75%

 

  • The company’s net headcount during the quarter increased by 257 taking the total headcount to 5,810. Mastek indicated that employee addition was including the employees of MST. The company also indicated that its total organic headcount has declined during the quarter as it is not backfilling the positions, which are now vacant

 

  • During the quarter, the company completed the acquisition of MST. Mastek had acquired MST for US$76.6 mn. Its revenue for CY21 was US$24.6m. The company’s current quarter revenue includes one-month revenue contribution of MST and next quarters revenue will include full contribution of MST. The company indicated that it is getting exposure to new sub verticals with MST like local government in US states
 
Variance Analysis
 
 
   Q2FY23   Q2FY22   YoY (%)   Q1FY22   QoQ (%)  Comments
Revenue in USD mn 78.1 72.0 8.4 73.6 6.1 Revenue growth of 10.7% QoQ in CC terms aided by acquisition, organic growth in single digit QoQ
Revenue 625.3 533.9 17.1 570.3 9.7  
Employee expense 340.0 273.9 24.2 308.8 10.1  
             
Gross Margin 285.3 260.1 9.7 261.5 9.1  
Gross margin (%) 45.6 48.7 -308 bps 45.9 -23 bps  
other expense 177.9 147.3 20.8 152.3 16.8  
             
EBITDA 107.4 112.8 -4.8 109.2 -1.7  
EBITDA Margin (%) 17.2 21.1 -395 bps 19.2 -207 bps EBITDA margins impacted by wage hike
Depreciation & amortisation 17.1 10.4 64.0 11.1 54.1  
EBIT 90.3 102.4 -11.8 98.1 -8.0  
EBIT Margin (%) 14.4 19.2 -473 bps 17.2 -277 bps  
Other income (less interest) 1.7 5.9 -71.7 23.8 -93.0  
PBT 92.0 108.3 -15.0 121.9 -24.6  
Tax paid 31.1 26.7 16.4 37.6 -17.2  
PAT 86.2 81.5 5.7 84.4 2.2  

Disclaimer

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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