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  • CMP : 2,153.7 Chg : 15.90 (0.74%)
  • Target : 2,000.0 (-1.57%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

23 Jul 2022

Delay in client decision making impacting growth

About The Stock

Mastek Ltd (Mastek) offers data, apps, cloud services to public & private enterprise in the UK, US, Middle East, Asia Pacific and India

  • The company’s recent acquisition of Evosys has enabled Mastek to provide end-to-end solutions and improves margins from ~14% to 21%
  • Net debt free and healthy double digit return ratio (with RoCE of 20%)
Q1FY23 Results

Mastek reported muted Q1FY23 results.

  • Dollar revenues declined by 4.7% QoQ to US$73.6 million
  • UK business declined by 3.9% QoQ due to pause in a key program of a large healthcare account
  • Reported 12M order backlog of US$191 mn, up by 4%QoQ in CC terms
What should Investors do?

Mastek’s share price has grown by ~6.3x over the past five years (from ~₹ 328 in July 2017 to ~₹ 2,032 levels in July 2022).

  • We maintain HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value Mastek at ₹ 2,000 i.e. 16x P/E on FY24E EPS

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Growth in new logo acquisition, increasing deal size, expansion of sales & marketing and market share gains to drive revenues
  • Management change in the US region may help it to grow stronger & achieve desired revenue mix
  • Acquisition of MST solutions will help drive growth in US region
  • Expect revenues to grow at 14.7% CAGR in FY22-24E
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from Mastek, in our IT coverage we also like Infosys.

  • Key beneficiary of improved digital demand, industry leading revenue growth & healthy capital allocation prompt us to be positive.
  •  BUY with a target price of ₹ 1,745

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 1,033.2 1,071.5 1,721.9 2,183.8 31.3 2,442.0 2,871.1 14.7
EBITDA 131.5 155.4 364.5 462.5 57.0 464.0 545.5 8.6
EBITDA Margins (%) 12.7 14.5 21.2 21.2 - 19.0 19.0 -
Net Profit 100.9 133.0 209.4 295.1 55.5 292.7 355.0 9.7
EPS (|) 40.1 52.4 81.9 103.8 - 102.9 124.9 -
P/E 50.7 38.8 24.8 19.6 - 19.7 16.3 -
RoNW (%) 14.1 16.8 24.4 27.5 - 22.3 22.2 -
RoCE (%) 17.0 11.3 21.5 26.7 - 23.3 23.4 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the quarter and conference call highlights

  • The company reported flat growth of 0.1% QoQ growth in CC term while dollar revenue came in at US$73.6mn, down by 4.7% QoQ. In rupee terms, revenue came in at |570.3 crore, down by 1.9% QoQ.

 

  • The company indicated that the revenues were impacted by the following headwinds: i) currency impact of GBP/USD ii) pause in key program in a large healthcare client iii) slower than expected ramp ups iv) delayed decision making on high probability deals. The company also indicated that had factors i & ii would have not occurred, they could have posted 3-4% QoQ revenue growth.

 

  • In terms of Geographies, UK market (67% of mix) declined by 3.9% QoQ while US market reported muted growth of 0.3% QoQ. ME region reported strong growth of 10.3% QoQ

 

  • In terms of verticals, Government sector (40% mix) grew by 3.5% QoQ while retail/manufacturing grew by 4.8% & 3.4% respectively. Health & Financial services vertical reported a steep decline of 16.6% & 5.3% QoQ respectively.

 

  •  The company indicated that one of its key program in UK Healthcare, which it had been ramping up from last few quarters has been kept on pause due to a leadership change. The company indicated that it will take 2-3 quarters for this account to ramp up.  It also indicated that the program is not cancelled but a temporary pause and was also applicable for other players. The company also indicated that apart from healthcare, it also works with UK government on various other mission critical projects consisting border and security etc. And large chunk of its business with the UK government falls in that category

 

  • The company indicated that its EBITDA margin in Q1 was impacted by currency headwinds, supply side challenges & lower utilization. The company’s EBITDA margins declined by 169bps to 19.2%. The company also indicated that the wage hike will be rolled out in Q2, despite that it is expected to reach EBITDA margins in the high teen range.

 

  • The company maintained its aspiration to reach US$1bn revenue mark in the second half of the decade which will be driven by both organic as well as inorganic route.  In line with the same, it acquired MST Solutions (MST) a US based firm having a strong presence in verticals of Health, Hi-tech & Government at US$76.6mn ( 2.6x Price to sales) . The acquisition in line with its earlier guidance of target companies with annual sales in the range of US$20-40mn. The acquisition will be partly funded by debt and the company indicated it has already secured debt with costs of debt around 3.5%. The acquisition is in line with its strategy to scale up US business. The company also indicated that the margins of MST will be in similar range of that of Mastek

 

  • The company indicated it has done restructuring of the US business where it looking to cut long tail of clients where the business is not scalable. As of result of the same the active client count has come down in Q1. The company also indicated that it won’t hesitate to take similar call in future clients coming through acquisition to improve quality of revenues. The company also indicated that it has formed a 25/25 strategy to focus on Fortune 1000 clients, it added 2 Fortune 1000 clients bringing the total to 21.

 

  • The company also indicated that it has qualified to bid for GBP 4 bn digital transformation framework by Home office in UK and with the kind of relationship it has with UK government, it is hopeful of some of the future deals coming its way.
 
 
Variance Analysis
 
 
   Q1FY23   Q1FY22   YoY (%)   Q4FY22   QoQ (%)  Comments
Revenue in USD mn 73.6 70.2 4.8 77.2 -4.7 Revenue dropped due to a) Currency impact of GBP/USD, b) pause in large healtcare client, c) slower than expected ramp up & d) delayed decision making on high probablity deals
Revenue 570.3 516.5 10.4 581.5 -1.9  
Employee expense 308.8 257.2 20.0 291.2 6.0  
             
Gross Margin 261.5 259.3 0.9 290.3 -9.9  
Gross margin (%) 45.9 50.2 -434 bps 49.9 -406 bps  
other expense 152.3 146.5 4.0 169.6 -10.2  
             
EBITDA 109.2 112.8 -3.2 120.7 -9.5  
EBITDA Margin (%) 19.2 21.8 -268 bps 20.8 -169 bps EBITDA margin was impacted by the following headwinds: GBP/USD currency impact, higher employee cost on account of supply side challenges & lower utilization, while it was mitigated was by decline in Other expenses
Depreciation & amortisation 11.1 9.7 13.9 12.2 -8.8  
EBIT 98.1 103.0 -4.8 108.5 -9.6  
EBIT Margin (%) 17.2 20.0 -274 bps 18.7 -145 bps  
Other income (less interest) 23.8 3.0 695.7 15.4 54.4  
PBT 121.9 106.0 15.0 123.9 -1.6  
Tax paid 37.6 25.8 45.5 35.7 5.2  
PAT 84.4 80.2 5.2 88.2 -4.4  

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