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  • CMP : 16,412.0 Chg : 83.0 (0.51%)
  • Target : 11,200.0 (17.89%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

02 Nov 2022

Strong performance, double digit growth lies ahead...

About The Stock

Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) is the market leader in the domestic passenger vehicle (PV) space with market share pegged at ~43.4% and popular models being Alto, WagonR, Swift, Brezza, Baleno, Ertiga, etc., among others.

  • Market leader in each sub-segment - cars (63.6%), UV (19.5%), vans (95.7%)
  • Strong b/s; ~₹ 42,000 crore cash and investment on books as of FY22
Q2FY23

The company posted robust performance in Q2FY23.

  • Total operating income came in at ₹ 29,931 crores up 12.9% QoQ
  • EBITDA margins in Q2FY23 stood at 9.3%, up 204 bps QoQ
  • Consequent PAT stood at ₹ 2,062 crore ~2x QoQ. PAT performance was driven by higher operating margins as well as higher other income
What should Investors do?

MSIL’s stock price has grown at ~2.2% CAGR from ~₹ 8,114 levels in Oct 2017, broadly in tandem to the Nifty Auto index in this time.

  • We retain our BUY rating tracking industry tailwinds of underpenetrated PV segment domestically, benign RM price outlook and robust order-book.
Target Price and Valuation

Upgrading our estimates, we now value MSIL at ₹ 11,200 i.e., 32x P/E on FY24E EPS of ₹350/share (previous target ₹ 10,000).

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Robust demand in SUV space aided by model refreshes, bookings for higher end models and sequential uptick in ASPs’, we have built 24.7% sales CAGR for FY22-24E. Volume CAGR build in at 16.6% over FY22-24E
  • Leadership position in the CNG space with CNG penetration now at >20% of sales volume. Maiden strong hybrid offering in Grand Vitara
  • New product launch pipeline along with robust order backlog of >4 lakh units of which ~130,000 vehicle pre-bookings are for recently launched models. Going forward we expect outperformance from UV portfolio.
  • Incremental capacity expansion at Manesar (~1 lakh units) & Greenfield capex under execution for a new plant in the state of Haryana scheduled to be operational by Q1CY25E (first phase capacity pegged at ~2.5 lakh units).
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from MSIL, in our OEM coverage we like M&M.

  • Focused on prudent capital allocation, UV differentiation & EV proactiveness

 

  • BUY with target price of ₹ 1,590

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Total Operating Income 86,020.3 75,610.6 70,332.5 88,295.6 5.4 117,034.2 137,370.2 24.7
EBITDA 10,999.3 7,302.6 5,345.3 5,701.2 -11.2 10,474.7 14,459.2 59.3
EBITDA Margins (%) 12.8 9.7 7.6 6.5 - 9.0 10.5 -
Net Profit 7,500.6 5,650.6 4,229.7 3,766.3 -12.5 7,096.2 10,578.3 67.6
EPS (₹) 248.3 187.1 140.0 124.7 - 234.9 350.2 -
P/E 38.3 50.8 67.8 76.2 - 40.4 27.1 -
RoNW (%) 16.3 11.7 8.2 7.0 - 12.0 16.0 -
RoIC (%) 68.6 26.8 24.2 24.5 - 65.5 105.0 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Q2FY23 Results:

  • Total operating income for the quarter stood at | 29,931 up 12.9% QoQ. Q2FY23 volumes were at 5.2 lakh units, up 10.6% QoQ. Of this, domestic volumes grew by 14% QoQ to 4.5 lakh units, while exports volumes were down 9% QoQ at 0.6 lakh units. Average Selling Price (ASP) came in at | 5.52 lakh/unit, up 2.1% QoQ.
  • Margins surprised positively this time, up ~204 bps QoQ to 9.3%. Gross margins expanded 150 bps QoQ while employee costs were down by ~59 bps. Other expenses witness a marginal increase tracking higher A&P spend
  • Consequent PAT in Q2FY23 came in at | 2,062 crore, ~2x QoQ. PAT performance was driven by higher operating margins & higher other income

Q2FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights    

  • During the quarter company celebrated 40 years of celebration in India and laid foundational stone for EV facility in Gujarat and upcoming facility in Haryana. Company sold highest ever cars quarterly during Q2FY23
  • Management informed ~35,000 units’ production lost due to chip shortage in Q2FY23 vs ~51,000 lost in Q1FY23. Company is trying to source chip from alternate suppliers to offset production loss.
  • Rise in realization was largely due to bookings for higher end models for new launches, price hike taken during Q1FY23, refreshed Alto K10 despite higher share of Passenger cars & muted exports during the quarter.
  • Grand Vitara has received ~75,000 bookings during Q2FY23 of which >35% is for strong hybrid model.
  • Company continues to witness strong order book of ~4.1 lakh units as on Q2FY23. With respect to launch of recent products they received ~1.3 lakh bookings.
  • Company has total production capacity of 22.5 lakh units including Gujarat facility & production in Karnataka (at Toyota’s facility for Grand Vitara) would be over and above capacity. Also company would start new Haryana plant in Q1CY25E with additional capacity of 2.5 lakh units & also can extend capacity by 1 lakh units in its Manesar plant. Further management does not plan to shut production in its Gurgaon plant.
  • Rise in other expense was due to higher advertising & marketing expense incurred during new launches & ongoing festive season.
  • Management informed about CNG demand remaining strong in PV space despite recent run-up in gas prices while it did taper in the CV domain.
  • Industry expectations are for 3.8 million unit sales volume in FY23E
  • Volume at Gujarat plant stood at 31% of total output at ~1.6 lakh units.

  • Avg. discount per car stood at ~₹ 13,840 during Q2FY23 vs. ~₹12,740 in Q1FY23 & ~₹18,000 during Q2FY22.

  • CNG portfolio continues to expand at company and now forms >20% of total sales. Out of pending order book CNG portfolio received ~1.3-1.4 lakh bookings.

  • Royalty for Q2FY23 stood at ~3.8% of sales vs ~3.5% in Q1FY23.

  • Out of total Ertiga sales ~2/3rd are comprised by CNG with Dzire CNG contributing ~35% of total Dzire sales.

  • Gains arising from INR/JPY appreciation stood at ~₹ 158 crore i.e. 0.5% of sales in Q2FY23

  • RM price outlook for Q3FY23 is still benign, however management do expect a marginal uptick in Q4FY23

  • Export revenue stood at ₹3,400 crores during Q1FY23 vs ₹3,640 crores in Q1FY23

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Shashank Kanodia, CFA, MBA (Capital Markets) and Raghvendra Goyal, CA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.            

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