loader2
Login Open ICICI 3-in-1 Account
  • CMP : 736.1 Chg : -1.25 (-0.17%)
  • Target : 515.0 (-1.72%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

09 Aug 2022

Limited growth levers; margins recover…

About The Stock

Marico is one of the major FMCG companies present in hair oil, edible oil, foods & personal care segment. Major brands include Parachute, Saffola, Nihar, Hair & Care, Set Wet, Livon, Beardo & Just Herbs.

  • Marico has an overall distribution network of more than 5.6 million (mn) outlets and direct reach of ~1 mn outlets. Through its stockist network, it reaches 59000 villages
  • With high gross margins of 45-50%, the company is able to spend 8-9% of its sales on advertisements to support new categories & products
Q1FY23 Results

Marico posted muted results with 1.3% sales growth.

  • Sales were up 1.3% YoY led by 19.5% growth in international business
  • EBITDA was at Rs 528 crore, up 9.8% YoY, margins at 20.6% (up 159 bps)
  • PAT was at Rs 376.9 crore (up 3.3% YoY)
What should Investors do?

Marico’s share price has given 63% return in the last five years (from Rs 320 in August 2017 to Rs 524 in August 2022).

  • We change our sales estimate downwards due to price cuts taken in parachute & expected price cut in Saffola edible oil in next one quarter
  • We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price Valuation

We value the stock at Rs 515 on ascribing 45x FY24 earnings multiple

Key triggers for future price performance
  • Foods portfolio has grown at a robust pace in last two years led by tailwinds of healthy eating habits. Foods portfolio reported Rs 450+ crore sales in FY22
  • Market share gains continue in Parachute. However, hair oil category is highly penetrated & category growth has been saturated
  • Though Saffola edible oil has grown strongly in the Covid period due to heightened at-home demand, unprecedented inflation in last one year led to shift towards economy brands & smaller SKUs
  • Inventing in digital only brands. Aims to achieve Rs 450- 500 crore sales by FY24
Alternate Stock Idea

We also like Dabur in our FMCG coverage.

  • Significant shift in consumption towards healthier, natural & Ayurveda based products & aggressively foray in many big categories would be driving growth for Dabur
  • Value the business at 55x FY24 earnings. BUY with a TP of Rs 700

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR % (FY17 to FY22) FY23E FY24E (Blank) CAGR % (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 7,315.0 8,048.0 9,512.0 9.9 9,732.3 10,563.0 - 5.4
EBITDA 1,469.0 1,591.0 1,681.0 7.7 1,873.6 2,074.8 - 11.1
EBITDA Margin % 20.1 19.8 17.7 - 19.3 19.6 - -
Net Profit 1,043.0 1,199.0 1,254.9 9.1 1,328.6 1,471.6 - 8.3
Adjusted Net Profit 1,043.0 1,199.0 1,254.9 9.1 1,328.6 1,471.6 - 8.3
EPS (Rs) 8.1 9.3 9.7 - 10.3 11.4 - -
P/E 64.9 56.4 53.9 - 50.9 46.0 - -
RoNW % 34.5 37.0 37.5 - 38.5 41.2 - -
RoCE (%) 41.0 40.3 41.2 - 43.8 47.0 - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q4FY22 Results: Edible oil volumes adversely impacted by inflation, price cuts in parachute tames sales growth

  • Marico reported dismal 1.3% revenue growth to Rs 2558 crore on the back of 3.6% de-growth in India business & 19.5% growth in international business. The dip in India business is mainly due to considerable decline in Saffola edible oil sales on account of high base & edible oil consumption shifting to economy brand & smaller SKUs due to extremely high inflation. Domestic volume de-grew 6% on account of double digit decline in Saffola Edible oil
  • Parachute sales witnessed de-growth of 9% on account of 2% volume decline and ~7% price cuts. Given copra prices have dipped in last three quarters, it has taken price cuts to pass on the benefits of benign RM prices
  • The company took 6% price cut in parachute last year whereas 2% price cut was taken in June quarter, which is likely to be reflected in trade inventory in next few months. The company gained volume market share by 90 bps & value market share by 170 bps during the quarter
  • VAHO segment sales grew 5% led by flattish volumes impacted by price hikes & grammage reduction. Rural region growth was slack due to high inflation & lower demand being relatively discretionary category. Despite very high competitive activity, the company witnessed 60 bps market share gains. Marico expects double digit value growth during the year
  • Saffola (edible oil + foods) revenues witnessed de-growth of 13%. Extremely high inflation in edible oil segment resulted in consumption shift from super premium to mass segment. This was aggravated by muted trade sentiments and supply chain problems
  • Foods segment saw single digit growth during the quarter due to heightened ‘at-home’ consumption in the base quarter. Moreover, immunity led category like Honey also saw dip in consumption. The company lost market share by 100 bps in honey category. (it holds high single digit market share) in the category. The company aims to touch Rs 800-1000 crore sales by FY24
  • Personal care & digital brands clocked double digit growth. The digital brands (Beardo & Just herbs among others) reached Rs 200 crore sales on annualised run rate (ARRs). The company aims to scale up these brands to Rs 450- 500 crore by FY24
  • The company acquired 54% stake in HW wellness Pvt Ltd, which owns the brand “True Elements” present in healthy breakfast & snacks segment in India. The brand promised 0% preservatives, 0% chemicals & 0% added sugar in its offerings. It is present across categories of Western breakfast (oats, quinoa, muesli, granola, flakes), Indian breakfast (poha, upma, dosa) and snacks (roasted seeds, seed mixes, raw seeds), among others
  • Copra prices declined 26% in the last one year (6% sequentially). The rice bran oil was up 11% in last one year & up 13% sequentially. Though edible oil prices dipped considerably in the last two months, the impact of that in margins would be reflected from Q3 onwards given the company is holding high cost inventory for Q2
  • Crude derivatives Liquid Paraffin & HDPE prices were up 36% & 26%, respectively, in the last one year. With expectations of a decline in crude prices, the derivatives are also likely to dip in in the next few quarters
  • The high growth in international sales was led by 10% constant currency growth in Bangladesh. Marico has seen strong traction in newly launched baby care and shampoos whereas core brands are growing steadily
  • South East Asia sales grew 34% led by home & personal care category growth in Vietnam. MENA & South African business grew 27% & 23%, respectively, in constant currency
  • With the considerable dip in copra prices, gross margins expanded 401 bps. Edible oil prices started cooling off at the fag end of the quarter and the impact of dip should be partially visible in Q2 and fully reflect in Q3. Overhead spends were up 141 bps, mainly on account of high fuel prices and lower expense in base quarter due to cost cutting initiatives owing to Covid second wave. Employee spends were up 16 bps while selling spends were up 85 bps during the quarter
  • Operating profit grew 9.8% to Rs 528 crore while operating margins expanded 159 bps to 20.6%. With 37% dip in other income and 19.6% increase in tax provisioning due to high income tax rate, net profit grew mere 3.3% to Rs 376.9 crore. Domestic business operating profit margin expanded 290 bps to 21.7% & international business margins were up 210 bps to 25.5% during the quarter
  • Key raw material price volatility has adversely impacted volume growth in last two quarters. However, with the stabilising market conditions, volume growth is expected to recover from Q2 onwards. The company expected recovery in rural growth rate with inflation cooling off, normal rainfall & higher agri crop realisations
  • In the medium term, the company expect 5-7% volume growth in parachute, double digit growth in VAHO, high single digit growth in Saffola edible oil segment & double digit value growth in personal care portfolio. It expects foods portfolio to reach Rs 800-1000 crore sales by FY24 through direct distribution & innovation. It aims to clock digital brands sales of Rs 450-500 crore sales by FY24

Marico witnessed strong growth in Saffola edible oil in FY21 & H1FY22 due to covid-19 induced higher in-home consumption. However, extremely high inflation in last six months not only adversely impacted margin in the category but also volumes declined on the back of consumption shifting to smaller SKUs & economy brands. High base of last two years has also been drag on growth. Parachute hair oils growth was impacted in last few quarters due to considerable price cuts given copra prices have been on a declining mode. We believe hair oil segment is saturated with high penetration levels moreover, competitive intensity is also increasing significantly in the category. Though, the company has forayed in multiple categories in foods segment & acquired some digital D2C brands in last two years, the size of these businesses is still relatively small to impact the overall growth of the company. We believe decline in major raw material prices would result in uptick in margins in next few quarter However, we remain cautious on growth prospects in medium term. We value the stock at 45x FY24 earnings with a target price of Rs 515/share (earlier Rs 530) and HOLD recommendation.

Terms & conditions and Other disclosures

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Sanjay Manyal MBA (FINANCE) Research Analyst, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.

ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com. 

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. 

Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stocks price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a companys fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports. 

Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. 

ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Institutional Research. 

The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. 

This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction. 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months. 

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. 

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. 

ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. 

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according -to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5%to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

Read More