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Marico Ltd>
  • CMP : 510.2 Chg : 0.85 (0.17%)
  • Target : 530.0 (5.37%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

09 May 2022

Sticky inflation to elongate margin recovery…

About the stock

Marico is one of the major FMCG companies present in hair oil, edible oil, foods & personal care segment. Major brands include Parachute, Saffola, Nihar, Hair & Care, Set Wet, Livon & Beardo.

  • Marico has an overall distribution network of more than 5 million outlets and direct reach of ~1 million outlets. Through its stockist network, it reaches 58000 villages
  • With high gross margins of 45-50%, the company is able to spend 8-9% of its sales on advertisements to support new categories and products
Q4-FY22 Results

Marico posted decent results with 7.4% sales growth.

  • Sales were up 7.4% YoY largely contributed by pricing; 1% volume growth
  • EBITDA was at Rs 346 crore, up 8.5% YoY, margins at 16% (up 16 bps)
  • PAT was at Rs 256.9 crore (up 13.2% YoY)
What should Investors do?

Marico’s share price has given 60% return in the last five years (from Rs 314 in May 2017 to Rs 503 in May 2022).

  • We cut our margin estimates due to high inflation in edible oils, crude derivatives
  • We change our rating on the stock from BUY to HOLD rating
Target price valuation

We value the stock at Rs 530 on ascribing 45x FY24 earnings multiple.

Key triggers for future price performance
  • Robust growth in foods led by tailwinds of healthy eating habits. Foods portfolio reported Rs 450+ crore sales in FY22
  • Market share gains in Parachute given smaller, regional brands find it difficult to pass on sharp commodity price fluctuations (up or down)
  • Incessant commodity inflation in edible oil, crude based derivatives like HDPE, liquid paraffin to keep margins below normalised levels of 19%
  • Investing in digital only brands. Aims to achieve Rs 500 crore sales by FY24
Alternate stock idea

We like Dabur in our FMCG coverage.

  • Significant shift in consumption towards healthier, natural & Ayurveda based products and aggressively foray in many big categories would be driving growth for Dabur
  • Value the business at 52x FY24 earnings. BUY with a TP of Rs 680

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR (FY17 to FY22) FY23E FY24E (Blank) CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 7,315.0 8,048.0 9,512.0 9.9 10,371.2 11,138.9 - 8.2
EBITDA 1,469.0 1,591.0 1,681.0 7.7 1,896.6 2,103.2 - 11.9
EBITDA Margin % 20.1 19.8 17.7 - 18.3 18.9 - -
Net Profit 1,043.0 1,199.0 1,254.9 9.1 1,364.0 1,511.7 - 9.8
Adjusted Net Profit 1,043.0 1,199.0 1,254.9 9.1 1,364.0 1,511.7 - 9.8
EPS (Rs) 8.1 9.3 9.7 - 10.6 11.7 - -
P/E 62.3 54.2 51.7 - 47.6 43.0 - -
RoNW % 34.5 37.0 37.5 - 41.4 47.4 - -
RoCE (%) 41.0 40.3 41.2 - 46.8 52.9 - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q4FY22 Results: Margins still below historic averages; volumes growth remains dismal due to rural slowdown

  • Marico reported 7.4% revenue growth to Rs 2161 crore led by 5.1% growth in India business and 12% constant currency growth in international business. The growth in both domestic & international business was largely driven by price hikes taken in the last one year to pass on steep commodity inflation. Domestic volume growth was 1% during the quarter on a relatively high base of 25% growth. On a full year basis, volume growth was 7%
  • Parachute (rigid pack) volumes de-grew 1% in Q4 on a high growth of 29% in base quarter. On a full year basis, value growth was 11% aided by 5% volume growth. We believe the company would have taken 5-10% price cuts in Parachute Coconut oil portfolio either through change in MRPs or consumer & trade promotions. This would have led to value de-growth in Parachute (rigid pack) in Q4. However, the company gained market share by 170 bps in FY22
  • VAHO segment witnessed 3% value growth with similar volume growth during the quarter. The company has not taken any price hikes in the segment in the last one year. It has gained market share by 90 bps in Q4. It saw 14% value and volume growth during the year
  • Saffola edible oil saw 17% value growth & flat volumes in Q4 as well as for the year. Steep inflation in edible oils has impacted volumes in the segment. We believe higher edible oil prices leads to down-trading to the regional, economy brands
  • Saffola foods portfolio witnessed growth of 17% during the quarter even on a high base. It saw 50% value growth for the year. Foods portfolio clocked more than Rs 450 crore of sales in FY22. Saffola Oats brand gained 512 bps market share with 42% value market share in FY22
  • Saffola Honey & Saffola Mealmaker Soya chunks clocked Rs 50-100 crore sales in first year of launch. The company launched Peanut Butter & Saffola Mayonnaise during the quarter at the e-commerce & online channel. The company would expand these brands in the offline channels as well
  • With the expansion in multiple foods category under Saffola brand, total addressable market would be close to Rs 6000 crore. The company would continue to expand in medium size food categories, which are largely urban centric. Marico is targeting sales of Rs 850-1000 crore for Saffola Foods by FY24
  • Premium personal care grew in double digit in FY22. Livon clocked double digit growth on a YoY basis, digital brands ‘Beardo’ has crossed Rs 100 crore annual run rate on exit basis. Just Herbs has also met internal targets. Digital-first brands have delivered Rs 180-200 crore run rate on an exit basis. The company plans to build a Rs 450-500 crore portfolio by FY24
  • In international business, Bangladesh, Vietnam, South Africa and MENA regions delivered constant currency growth of 16%, 7%, 20% and 11%, respectively. For FY22, revenue growth was 14%, 12%, 18% and 27%, respectively
  • In the near term, due to inflationary headwinds, demand is expected to be uncertain. Hence, margins are expected to remain subdued. Both demand and margins are expected to improve from the second half of FY23
  • With the stabilisation of copra prices & sharp price increase taken in Saffola edible oil last one year, gross margins were up 33 bps. Copra prices were down 9% YoY whereas rice-bran, liquid paraffin (LLP) & HDPE prices were up 26%, 9% & 19%, respectively. The employee spends were down (percentage to sales) by 102 bps whereas marketing & overhead spends increased 84 bps and 36 bps, respectively
  • Operating profit grew 8.5% to Rs 346 crore with 16 bps improvement in operating margins. However, operating margins are much lower than historical averages. Net profit saw growth of 13.2% to Rs 256.9 crore
  • The company increased advertisement spends to 9.4% of sales for the quarter. This is mainly to support core as well as new brands despite inflationary pressure adversely impacting margins
  • In the medium term, the company aspires to grow revenue at 13-15% with 8-10% volume growth. It is targeting 5-7% volume growth in Parachute, double digit value growth in VAHO & high single digit volume growth in Saffola edible oil
  • In the international business, the company expects to grow revenues in double digits with a stable geo-political environment
  • Net working capital for the company improved from 19 days in FY21 to 12 days in FY22

Terms & conditions and other disclosures

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Sanjay Manyal MBA (FINANCE) Research Analyst, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.

ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com. 

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RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according -to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5%to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

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Road No 7, MIDC,

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