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  • CMP : 398.4 Chg : 5.25 (1.34%)
  • Target : 325.0 (25.0%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

25 Jul 2022

Steady performance, profitable growth lies ahead …

About The Stock

Mahindra CIE (MCI), part of the Spain-based CIE Automotive Group, is a multi-technology, multi-product automotive component supplier.

  • CY21 consolidated revenue mix – Europe 49%, India 51%.
  • Forging is ~59% of consolidated sales (86% in Europe).
  • In India it derives 37%/31%/16%/8% of sales from PV/2-W/tractors/M&HCV
  • In Europe it derives 36%/39%/9% of sales from PV/MHCV/Off highway
Q2CY22

MCI posted steady Q2CY22 results

  • Consolidated net sales came at ₹2,707 crores, up 4.6% QoQ.
  • EBITDA margins stood at 11.2%, down 30 bps QoQ.
  • PAT stood at ₹189 crores up 17% QoQ, aided by higher other income & lower finance costs. MCI’s commentary was positive on demand outlook
What should Investors do?

MCI stock price has remained broadly flat over the past 5 years (from ~₹ 250 levels in July 2017), underperforming the Nifty Auto index.

  • We retain BUY, tracking portfolio attributes namely strong CFO/FCF yields (~11%/5%) and ex-goodwill led healthy return ratios matrix (RoIC: ~30%).
Target Price Valuation

Upgrading our forward estimates, we now value MCI at 8.5x CY23E EV/EBITDA for revised target of ₹ 325 (earlier target: ₹ 275)

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • With volume growth on the anvil in the Indian operations, benefits flowing from the robust product profile/demand at M&M and recovery in European operations, sales at MCI is expected to grow at 18.6% CAGR over CY21-23E
  • With operating leverage at play and MCIs efforts on costs efficiency, margins are seen improving to 12.5% by CY23E with corresponding RoCE seen at ~13% (optically muted due to high goodwill in B/S, RoIC at ~30%+)
  • Persistent efforts to de-risk the base business amid global thrust on electrification with order book gaining traction in EV specific as well as EV neutral products
Alternate Stock Ideas

Besides MCI, in our ancillary coverage, we like Apollo Tyres.

  • India CV revival beneficiary focused on debt reduction, higher return ratios

 

  • BUY with target price of ₹230

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials CY18 CY19 CY20 CY21 5 year CAGR (CY16-21) CY22E CY23E 2 year CAGR (CY21-23E)
Net Sales 8,031.5 7,907.8 6,050.1 8,386.7 9.5 10,862.1 11,793.6 18.6
EBITDA 1,051.1 967.7 501.6 1,017.3 13.9 1,249.1 1,471.3 20.3
EBITDA Margins (%) 13.1 12.2 8.3 12.1 - 11.5 12.5 -
Net Profit 498.1 353.8 106.4 392.9 18.4 683.7 835.1 45.8
EPS (₹) 13.2 9.3 2.8 10.4 - 18.1 22.1 -
P/E 19.8 27.8 92.5 25.1 - 14.4 11.8 -
RoNW (%) 12.4 7.7 2.2 7.7 - 11.9 13.1 -
RoCE (%) 12.6 10.2 2.7 9.4 - 11.5 13.3 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Q2CY22 Results:

  • Mahindra CIE reported steady performance in Q2CY22. On consolidated basis, net sales for the quarter stood at ₹2,707.2 crore, up 4.6% QoQ. EBITDA for Q2CY22 stood at ₹304.4 crore with corresponding EBITDA margins at 11.2%, down 30 bps QoQ
  • EBIT margin recovery in the European operations was impressive ~150 bps QoQ to 8.5% while it was flat in Indian operations at 11.1%. Sequential top line growth for Indian operations was 7% QoQ at ₹1,386.6 crores whereas European operations grew 4% QoQ at ₹1,332.3 crores.

 

Q2CY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Management guided about strong growth forecast for auto industry in India whereas European region witnessed some setbacks due to war. With things normalizing management expects H2CY22 to be better than H1CY22.
  • Raw materials are expected to be at similar levels in India as no fall in prices is witnessed till now.
  • Higher RM led growth in MCIs’ top line in European operation is pegged at ~15%. Management informed about pass through agreement entered with customers wherein ~60-70% energy costs will be passed onto customers and ~30-40% impact to be absorbed by MCI.
  • Meta Castello (a material subsidiary of company) grew 15-20% YoY. Whereas German operations hit due to war & energy prices however there is no cash burn there.
  • MCI India top line growth for Indian operations (YoY) due to inflationary measures is to extent of ~10%. However same on QoQ basis is negligible (~1%)
  • Company witnessed market share increase in European region due to consolidation of market as a result of geopolitical crisis.
  • 2W industry is being muted however witnessing some uptick QoQ however still remains far below from FY18 peak.
  • For Mahindra CIE’s hosur plant, management plans to invest ₹5 billion over tenure of 5-6 years and same is expected to be funded through internal financing (till date spent ~₹130 crore, plant commissioned in June 2022)

Disclaimer

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