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  • CMP : 398.4 Chg : 5.25 (1.34%)
  • Target : 275.0 (22.22%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

27 Apr 2022

Healthy performance, meaningful gains lie ahead…

About The Stock

Mahindra CIE (MCI), part of the Spain-based CIE Automotive Group, is a multi-technology, multi-product automotive component supplier.

  • CY21 consolidated revenue mix – Europe 49%, India 51%.
  • Forging is ~59% of consolidated sales (86% in Europe).
  • In India it derives 37%/31%/16%/8% of sales from PV/2-W/tractors/M&HCV
  • In Europe it derives 36%/39%/9% of sales from PV/MHCV/Off highway
Q1CY22

MCI posted healthy Q1CY22 results

  • Consolidated net sales came at ₹2,558 crores, up 25% QoQ.
  • EBITDA margins stood at 11.5%, up 170 bps QoQ.
  • PAT nearly doubled QoQ at ₹161.4 crores.
What should Investors do?

MCI stock price has de-grown at ~1% CAGR over the past 5 years (~₹ 245 levels in April 2017), underperforming the Nifty Auto index.

  • We retain BUY, tracking portfolio attributes namely strong CFO/FCF yields (~11%/5%) and ex-goodwill led healthy return ratios matrix (RoIC: ~30%).
Target Price Valuation

Rolling over our valuation to CY23E, we now value MCI at 8x CY23E EV/EBITDA for revised target of ₹ 275 (earlier target: ₹ 245)

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • With improving economic outlook post the pandemic and commodity inflation led increase in realisations, we expect sales at MCI to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% over CY21-23E, led primarily by growth in the Indian business
  • Efficiency efforts to report margin uptick to 12.4% by CY23E with CY23E EPS seen at ~₹ 18.3/share with consequent RoCE at ~12% by CY23E
  • Constant effort to de-risk base business amid global thrust on electrification with order book gaining traction in EV specific as well as EV neutral products
New Stock Ideas

Besides MCI, in our ancillary coverage, we like Apollo Tyres.

  • India CV revival beneficiary focused on debt reduction, higher return ratios
  • BUY with target price of ₹270

Key Financial Summary

Particulars CY18 CY19 CY20 CY21 5 year CAGR (CY16-21) CY22E CY23E 2 year CAGR (CY21-23E)
Net Sales 8,031.5 7,907.8 6,050.1 8,386.7 9.5 9,849.8 10,696.6 8.4
EBITDA 1,051.1 967.7 501.6 1,017.3 13.9 1,150.0 1,327.4 9.3
EBITDA Margins (%) 13.1 12.2 8.3 12.1 - 11.7 12.4 -
Net Profit 498.1 353.8 106.4 392.9 18.4 581.3 693.5 20.9
EPS (₹) 13.2 9.3 2.8 10.4 - 15.4 18.3 -
P/E 17.1 24.1 80.0 21.7 - 14.7 12.3 -
RoNW (%) 12.4 7.7 2.2 7.7 - 10.3 11.2 -
RoCE (%) 12.6 10.2 2.7 9.4 - 10.2 11.6 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Q1CY22 Results:

  • Mahindra CIE reported healthy performance in Q1CY22. On consolidated basis, net sales for the quarter stood at ₹ 2,588.4 crore, up 25% QoQ. EBITDA for Q1CY22 stood at ₹ 296.9 crore with corresponding EBITDA margins at 11.5%, up 170 bps QoQ primarily tracking higher margins in Indian operation vs. steady performance in European operations.
  • Margin recovery in the Indian operations was impressive 310 bps QoQ to 15.1% while it was steady at 110 bps at European operations at 10.2%. Sequential topline growth for the quarter was however led by European operations i.e. up 42% QoQ (at ₹ 1,242 crore) while Indian operations reported 12.6% sales growth on QoQ basis (₹ 1,202 crore).

Q1CY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • MCI India topline growth of 15% YoY involved 10% realisation led growth tracking commodity costs pass through. MCI India margins improvement involved savings realised from VRS scheme offered for stamping division in the past. Company aims to maintain this ~15% margin profile going forward
  • MCI Europe topline growth of 20% YoY involved 12% realisation led growth tracking commodity costs pass through. Margins at the European division were impacted by higher energy costs with likely impact placed at 2-3%. Company is negotiating with customers for pass through of steep rise in energy costs with ~1/3rd costs already passed onto customers and rest expected to pass through in coming quarters. Company’s management opined that energy costs have more than doubled over the past 6 months.
  • On the capacity utilization front, Indian operations are running at near optimum utilization levels with company adding capacities in this domain. While European operations are running at ~70-75% utilization levels with improvement envisaged in coming quarters.
  • On the overall basis, company is aiming for 15% margin profile and ahead of industry volume growth, thereby improving its market share
  • Capex is envisaged at ~5-6% of sales
  • Steel prices are still in inflationary mode; however, they are a complete pass though for the company
  • MCI’s Mexico plant is operating at optimum utilization levels with company adding press lines to increase throughput by 50-605 in 2-3 years’ time frame 

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