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CIE Automotive India Ltd>
  • CMP : 485.8 Chg : 1.15 (0.24%)
  • Target : 500.0 (20.48%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

02 Mar 2023

Healthy quarter with promising growth outlook…

About The Stock

Mahindra CIE (MCI), part of the Spain-based CIE Automotive Group, is a multi-technology, multi-product automotive component supplier.

  • CY22 consolidated revenue mix – Europe 36%, India 64%.
  • Forging is ~59% of consolidated sales (78% in Europe).
  • In India it derives 49%, 23%, 20%, 8% of sales from PV, 2-W, tractors, M&HCV, respectively. In Europe it now derives 75% of sales from PV space.
Q4CY22

Company posted healthy Q4CY22 results

  • Consolidated revenue from continuing operations came in at ₹2,246 crores, nearly flat QoQ (Sequential growth in Europe, OEM led decline in India)
  • EBITDA came in at ₹292.4 crores with margins at 13%.
  • Company reported Loss at the PAT level amounting to ₹658 crores vs. profit reading on QoQ and YoY basis, largely attributable to impairment charge for placing Germany forging business up for sale. Profit from continuing operation stood at ₹195 crore for Q3FY22 and ₹711 crore for CY22
What should Investors do?

MCI stock price has grown ~11% CAGR past 5 years (from ~₹ 230 levels in Feb 2018), outperforming the Nifty Auto index in that time.

  • We retain BUY, tracking healthy demand outlook, value accretion post selling of its German forging operations; improved financials; order wins in EV space, strong CFO yields (~7%) & healthy double digit return ratios.
Target Price and Valuation

Rolling over our valuations & switching to PE valuation methodology, we now value MCI at ₹500 i.e., 20x PE on CY24E EPS of ₹25/share

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • With healthy underlying demand across major clients (like M&M, Tata, Maruti Suzuki) in Indian operations and PV centric Europe exposure, sales at MCI are expected to grow at 12.4% CAGR over CY22-24E.
  • With o/p leverage at play & efforts on operational efficiencies post sale of German forging business, margins are seen improving to 14.1% by CY24E
  • Robust order wins during year amidst consistent efforts to de-risk the base business with EV orders crossing ₹3 billion (per annum basis) mark in India
  • RoE/RoCE is seen improving to 15%/17% respectively by CY24E amid superlative CFO/FCF yields which are pegged at ~7%/5% over CY22-24E
Alternate Stock Ideas

Besides MCI, in our ancillary coverage, we like Apollo Tyres.

  • India CV revival beneficiary, focused on debt reduction, higher return ratios
  • BUY with target price of ₹390

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials CY19 CY20 CY21 CY22P 5 year CAGR (CY17-22) CY23E CY24E 2 year CAGR (CY22-24E)
Net Sales 7,907.8 6,050.1 6,765.2 8,753.0 6.1 10,016.8 11,067.4 12.5
EBITDA 967.7 501.6 941.7 1,172.1 7.6 1,352.3 1,555.0 15.2
EBITDA Margins (%) 12.2 8.3 13.9 13.4 - 13.5 14.1 -
Net Profit 353.8 106.4 392.8 -136.1
EPS (₹) 9.3 2.8 10.4 -3.6 - 21.4 25.0 -
P/E 44.4 147.6 40.0 -115.4 - 19.4 16.6 -
RoNW (%) 7.7 2.2 7.7 9.2 - 14.2 14.8 -
RoCE (%) 10.2 2.7 9.4 13.4 - 15.0 16.7 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Q4CY22 Results:

  • Mahindra CIE reported healthy performance in Q4CY22. On consolidated basis, net sales from continuing operations for the quarter stood at ₹2,246 crore, nearly flat QoQ. EBITDA for Q4CY22 stood at ₹292.4 crore with corresponding EBITDA margins at 13%, up 140 bps QoQ. Standalone margins came in at |14.5% up 200 bps QoQ (led by gross margin gains).
  • EBIT margin recovery in the European operations was impressive ~100 bps QoQ to 11.4% while it was even better in Indian operations at 14.5% up ~300 bps QoQ. Sequential top line de-growth for Indian operations was 6% QoQ at ₹1,341.8 crores whereas continuing European operations grew 7.6% QoQ at ₹732.2 crores.

Q4CY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • During the year CIE increased its stake in the company from 60.8% to 65.7% & approved change of name from MCIE to CIE automotive India Ltd to show its commitment towards Indian market. Further company approved selloff of its truck forging business in Germany, consequently CIE Forgings Germany has been shown as discontinued operations.
  • Management informed about Indian business being affected due to muted 2W & PV volumes due to year end effect, however expect healthy momentum going forward from PV, CV & Tractor space.
  • MCIE Indian operation reported ~18.5% EBITDA margins higher due to one-time exceptional gain booked during the quarter as profit on sale of land adjusting which margins stood at 15.7%.
  • With respect to European operations management informed about recovery being witnessed with company benefitting from consolidation of suppliers.
  • BEV contribution in Europe stood at >10% in PV space and is progressing well with company supplying aluminium stamped products for the same.
  • In Europe volume growth during the quarter stood at ~11% and for CY22 stood at 40%.
  • Profit from discontinued operations is higher in Q4CY22 due to one-time exceptional items booked like reversal of provisions, price settlement of ~€7 million.
  • Management remained committed towards its dividend distribution policy of 25% of PAT
  • Management remained confident about demand from Indian markets and expects to grow 5-10% higher than industry growth.

  • Company informed about healthy relations from M&M, Tata, MSIL and increasing share of business with south Korean OEMs like Kia & Hyundai

  • Management aspires to attain CIE global level margins of ~18-19% for the company in the near to medium term.

Disclaimer

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