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  • CMP : 3,679.6 Chg : 14.40 (0.39%)
  • Target : 1,500.0 (30.43%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

08 Jul 2022

Elevating EV game through foreign funding in E-PV…

About The Stock

Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) is a conglomerate with presence in auto, IT, financial services, logistics, hospitality and real estate among others. At standalone level it is India’s largest tractor manufacturer (~40% FY22 market share) & second largest CV, fourth largest PV maker (24.7%, 7.4% FY22 market share)

  • FY22 standalone revenue mix – ~62% automotive, ~34% tractors
Company Update
  • M&M has announced formation of new subsidiary for undertaking business activity in the domain of electric passenger vehicle segment. It also announced fresh investment by itself and British International Investments (BII) to the turn of ₹1925 crore each (spread over two tranches).
  • The implied valuation of EV Co is pegged at ~₹40,400-70,070 crores depending upon the stake held by the investor. BII will hold 2.75-4.76% stake in the new entity post its investment with M&M retaining the rest.
  • The total capital requirement for the EV Co. is envisaged to be ~ ₹8,000 crores (USD 1 billion) between FY24-27 for the planned product portfolio.
What should Investors do?

M&M’s stock price has grown at ~10.8% CAGR (i.e.  ~₹ 688 levels in July 2017), thereby outperforming Nifty Auto index in that time.

  • We maintain BUY on EV proactiveness and continued RoCE focus
Target Price Valuation

The transaction unlocks the EV business potential & is a testimony to M&M’s strong commitment on the EV front. We now value M&M at a revised target price of ₹ 1,500 on SOTP basis vs. ₹ 1,315 earlier (10x to base automobile business, lower end of valuation pegging to the electric PV business and 35% holding company discount to its listed & unlisted investments/group co’s). We assign ₹ 227/share value for E-PV company assuming 4.76% stake sale @₹ 1,925 crore (conservatively) and 30% holding company discount.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • We expect 20.4% FY22-24E revenue CAGR backed by 15.5% volume CAGR; margins seen at 13% in FY24E along with RoE of 14.6%
  • Set about proactive measures towards electrification theme while retaining strong capital efficiency focus on base businesses as well as investments.
  • Strong order book in PV business amidst innovative and tech enabled new product launches & capex spends to scale up execution capabilities.
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from M&M, in our OEM coverage we like Tata Motors.

  • Long term value drivers (EV transition, deleveraging & FCF focus) intact
  • BUY with target price of ₹500

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22P 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 53,614.0 45,487.8 45,041.0 57,431.0 5.4 73,534.1 83,256.5 20.4
EBITDA 6,639.6 5,798.0 6,506.1 7,042.9 9.3 9,054.9 10,850.8 24.1
EBITDA Margins (%) 12.4 12.7 14.4 12.3 - 12.3 13.0 -
Net Profit 4,796.1 1,330.4 268.6 4,932.4 6.2 5,967.4 7,090.0 19.9
Adjusted Net Profit 4,818.6 2,190.4 942.5 5,097.5 9.6 5,967.4 7,090.0 17.9
EPS (₹) 40.2 11.2 2.3 41.2 - 49.9 59.3 -
P/E 28.6 103.1 510.8 27.9 - 23.1 19.4 -
RoNW (%) 14.1 6.4 2.7 13.1 - 13.8 14.6 -
RoCE (%) 12.3 8.8 9.5 9.3 - 11.9 13.6 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Other details and conference call highlights

  • EVCo will be incorporated as a separate wholly owned subsidiary.
  • The total Investment of M&M in the EVCo as per the audited financial statements for the year ended FY22 is ~₹ 400 crore with no sales in FY22.
  • The EV Co. will significantly leverage the broader manufacturing capabilities, product development, design organizations along with the ecosystem of suppliers, dealers, and financiers of M&M. The funds will be utilized primarily to create and market a world-class electric SUV portfolio with advanced technologies.
  • Investment would be done in two tranches with First tranche of investment by M&M and BII would be for an amount of up to ₹1,200 crores each (by June 2023). Second tranche of investment by M&M and BII which would be for an amount of up to ₹725 crores each will be subject to achievement of certain milestones to be agreed between M&M, EV Co and BII by FY24.
  • Investment by BII would be in form of compulsory convertible preference share (CCPS) in addition to that BII would have nominal holding of 100 equity shares in new EV Co.
  • BII would have right to appoint one nominee director on the Board of EVCo, pre-Emptive Rights to participate in future funding rounds; affirmative voting & minority protection rights, transfer related rights, exit options, etc.
  • M&M would be sharing its vision that includes product, technology, and platform strategy at the UK event planned for 15 August 2022, followed by a reveal of the electric XUV 400 in September 2022.
  • M&M expects 20%-30% of its SUVs being electric by 2027. It expects to reach an annual run-rate of ~2 lakh electric PV sales volume by FY27 & would be contributed by 4 newly developed BEVs’ & XUV 400.
  • EV Co will work on asset light model and would primarily use M&M manufacturing capability & distribution network for sourcing non EV related components. Further company doesn’t intent to infuse money into charging network.

Disclaimer

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