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  • CMP : 3,612.8 Chg : -8.20 (-0.23%)
  • Target : 1,665.0 (21.98%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

22 Feb 2023

Strong fundamentals at play, robust growth outlook…

About The Stock

Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) is a conglomerate with presence in auto, IT, financial services, logistics, hospitality and real estate among others. At standalone level it is India’s largest tractor manufacturer (41.5% H1FY23 market share) & 2nd largest CV, 4th largest PV maker (27%, 8.7% H1FY23 market share)

  • FY22 standalone revenue mix – ~62% automotive, ~34% tractors
Q3FY23

The company posted steady Q3FY23 results

  • Standalone net sales rose 3.9% QoQ to ₹21,654 crore
  • EBITDA margins at 13% were up 102 bps QoQ (gross margins up 50 bps)
  • Standalone PAT for Q3FY23 came in at ₹1,528 crores, down 27% QoQ. PAT performance was dragged by impairment on certain long-term investments.
What should Investors do?

M&M’s stock price has grown at ~13% CAGR from ~₹744 levels in Feb 2018, outperforming the wider Nifty Auto index.

  • We retain BUY rating on the stock amidst sturdy demand prospects across its product profile, robust order-book & company walking the talk on capital efficiency (RoE) as well as margin improvement targets in auto domain.
Target Price and Valuation

Introducing FY25E, we value M&M at SOTP-based target price of ₹1,665 (10x FY24E standalone EV/EBITDA; 30% hold co. discount to investments, ₹226/share value accrued pursuant to equity raise for Electric PV arm).

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • We build 18%, 24% total volume, sales CAGR over FY22-25E on the back of healthy order book, upcoming strong product launches in EV as well as ICE.
  • With operating leverage at play, improving product mix, benign commodity prices, BS-VI stage 2 cost past through & focus on cost efficiencies; we expect EBITDA margins at the company to hover in the range of 12-12.5%  
  • Continued focus on prudent capital allocation (>18% RoCE), leadership position in E3W space along with increasing market share in LCV space & revival of rural demand to act as structural positives.
  • Expanding capacities across models to fulfil current pending orderbook.
  • Persistent focus towards electrification with clear product timelines amidst overall aim to have 20-30% of SUV portfolio as Electric Vehicles by 2027
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from M&M, in our coverage we like Maruti Suzuki.

  • Best placed to play upon the under-penetrated PV space domestically
  • BUY with target price of ₹11,200

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR (FY22-5E)
Net Sales 45,487.8 44,629.9 57,446.0 5.5 83,301.8 98,198.1 110,449.9 24.3
EBITDA 5,798.0 6,957.5 7,042.3 9.3 10,201.7 11,889.2 13,833.8 25.2
EBITDA Margins (%) 12.7 15.6 12.3 - 12.2 12.1 12.5 -
Net Profit 1,330.4 984.2 4,935.2 6.3 6,549.7 7,905.6 8,983.9 22.1
Adjusted Net Profit 2,190.4 2,303.2 5,100.4 9.6 7,257.8 7,905.6 8,983.9 20.8
EPS (₹) 11.2 8.2 41.4 - 54.9 66.3 75.3 -
P/E 122.4 165.5 33.0 - 24.9 20.6 18.1 -
RoNW (%) 6.4 6.6 13.1 - 16.6 15.9 15.9 -
RoCE (%) 8.8 10.0 9.3 - 13.1 14.3 15.4 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Q3FY23 Results:

  • M&M’s automotive revenues were flat QoQ to ₹14,797 crores amid 2% QoQ decline in volumes at ~1.76 lakh units & 2.5% ASP growth to ₹8.4 lakh/unit. Tractor revenues grew by 13.4% QoQ to ₹6,277.7 crore tracking 13.1% QoQ volume growth at 1.06 lakh units and flat ASPs at ₹5.9 lakh/unit.
  • Standalone EBITDA stood at ₹2,814 crore with attendant EBITDA margins at 13% (up 102 QoQ). Gross margin expanded by 56 bps QoQ. For Q3FY23, automotive segment posted ~65 bps increase in EBIT margins QoQ to 6.7% while tractor segment EBIT margins grew by ~15 bps QoQ to 16.6%.
  • PAT for the quarter came in at ₹1,528 crore down 27% QoQ. PAT miss was due to exceptional item (~₹629 crore) relating to impairment provision for a certain long-term investment, impairment of certain assets of trucks and buses business. PAT for the quarter was however supported by higher than anticipated other income.

Q3FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • During the quarter company witnessed highest ever quarterly revenue & highest ever PBIT with sequential improvement in farm equipment PBIT amidst market share gain & healthy volumes.
  • Company continued to maintain its market share in the domestic tractor space at 41% up 1.6% YoY. This was primarily due to successful launch of Yuvo Tech+, addition of new dealers (~120 dealers added), strong brand recognition in 30-50 HP segment.
  • Outperformance during the quarter was primarily led by Farm segment which witnessed robust demand amidst positive farm sentiments. Further management expects industry to grow by 10%+ vs earlier expectation of high single digit. Also, management informed about 4 years of healthy monsoon, higher govt spending in H2FY23, etc leading to healthy demand with FY24E guidance to be given after IMD monsoon data.
  • M&M continues to counts itself as market leader in SUV space with Q3FY23 revenue market share pegged at 20.6% vs 19% in Q2FY23, also company continues to dominate electric 3W space with 63.5% market share.
  • M&M informed about farm mechanization revenue growing by 40% YoY in YTDFY23 (at ~₹480 crore) with revenue target at 10x by 2027 & eventually report it as separate division once it reaches optimum profitability. Companies sees huge opportunity in this space wherein the intent is to capture market share in some of the segments like rotavator etc. as well as expand the category like rice transplanters among others.
  • Company informed pending order book at 2.66 lakh units with continued focus to decrease the same and report less orderbook in next quarter amidst production ramp up. Management informed about cancellation of the current order book in the range of ~5-7% due to delay in deliveries.
  • Management expects CV industry to reach FY19 levels in FY24E & surpass the same in FY25E.

    Management informed about setting up of ~130 cubes in urban areas with 800-1200 sq. ft area with great RoI in terms of dealers for supplying EV’s and ~220 such cubes in urban areas. Management plans to expand it to 350 cubes by year end in urban areas.

    BS-VI phase (RDE Norms) to increase cost by |10-15K per vehicle. It is well positioned to transition the same.

    Company is in discussion with authorities for extending TREM V phase 2 deadlines for <50 HP tractors.

    Management expects uptick in export market amid normalization in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.

    M&M continues to remain focused toward margin improvement targets in FES division & has improved the same by ~1% till date (over last 4 quarters).

Disclaimer

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