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  • CMP : 1,157.0 Chg : 35.30 (3.15%)
  • Target : 850.0 (4.04%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

10 Aug 2022

In line quarter; margin trend to be key monitorable…

About The Stock

Mahanagar Gas (MGL) is a city gas distribution company and operates in Mumbai, its adjoining areas and Raigad district, Maharashtra. 

  • CNG sales contribute more than 70% of its total sales volume 
  • It has historically reported high gross margins and return ratios
Q1FY23 Results

MGL’s results were in line with estimates on profitability front. 

  • Revenue was up 138.9% YoY to ₹ 1593.2 crore (estimate: ₹ 1418.1 crore), driven by volume growth of 43.8% YoY and higher realisation at ₹ 50.8/scm 
  • Gross margins fell ₹ 5/scm YoY to ₹ 14.4/scm on account of sharp increase in gas costs. Subsequently, EBITDA fell 6.1% YoY to ₹ 285.6 crore (our estimate: ₹ 282.3 crore) 
  • PAT was at ₹ 185.2 crore, down 9.3% YoY (our estimate: ₹ 183 crore)
What should Investors do?

While the company is likely to report healthy revenue YoY in FY23E owing to sales and realisation growth, longer term revenue growth is expected to be range bound due to lack of new geographical areas, thereby less opportunities for sustained higher growth. 

  • We retain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value MGL at ₹ 850 i.e. ~10x P/E on FY24E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • MGL is a beneficiary of India’s aim to increase the share of natural gas in the energy mix from 6% to 15% by 2030 
  • APM and spot LNG costs trend to be the key 
  • MGL hiked prices in Q2FY23E to pass on higher costs to customers 
  • Debt free balance sheet and consistent dividend payout
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from MGL, in our oil & gas coverage we also like Gail.

  • Gail is a beneficiary of increasing gas consumption. Stable volume growth along with higher profitability from gas trading, petchem and LPG segment due to higher oil prices will add value 
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 160

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22E) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22E-FY24E)
Revenue (| crore) 3,056.8 3,264.5 2,337.8 3,884.9 0.1 6,991.6 6,865.3 32.9
EBITDA (| crore) 885.5 1,052.9 934.0 924.3 0.1 1,148.1 1,256.3 16.0
PAT (| crore) 546.5 793.5 619.6 597.0 0.1 748.2 809.3 14.3
EPS(|) 55.3 80.3 62.7 60.4 - 75.7 81.9 -
P/E (x) 14.8 10.2 13.0 13.5 - 10.8 10.0 -
P/Book (x) 3.4 2.7 2.5 2.2 - 2.0 1.8 -
RoCE (%) 31.7 29.7 23.1 19.8 - 22.4 21.6 -
RoE (%) 22.8 26.9 19.2 16.6 - 18.5 17.8 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights Q1FY23 Results:

  • Higher gas costs continue to impact margins; although QoQ profitability improves
  • Revenue increased 34.2% QoQ on account of higher realisation 
  • Sales volume was at 3.4 mmscmd, up 43.8% YoY, slightly higher than estimate of 3.3 mmscmd. CNG segment reported growth of ~64% YoY to 2.5 mmscmd (our estimate: 2.4 mmscmd). PNG volumes increased 7.2% YoY to 0.9 mmscmd, in line with estimates. On a QoQ basis, volumes increased 8.8% with CNG volumes increasing 11.5% (estimated growth: ~5%) whereas PNG volumes increased 1.8% (estimated growth: ~3%) 
  • On a QoQ basis, higher realisation led to gross margins at | 14.4/scm, up | 1.1/scm QoQ. Subsequently, EBITDA/scm was at | 9.1/scm, up | 1.5/scm QoQ
  • Going ahead, we expect sales volume of 3.4 mmscmd and 3.7 mmscmd in FY23E and FY24E, respectively 
  • Gross margins are estimated at | 14.8/scm and | 15/scm in FY23 and FY24E, respectively
Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights 
  • Unified base price (UBP) for pooled gas price was US$8.04/mmbtu in May and US$8.05/mmbtu in June 
  • The company currently operates 292 CNG stations. MGL plans to add 25 new CNG stations and upgrade 25 CNG stations in FY23. Planned capex for FY23 is | 700-800 crore while capex for Q1FY23 was | 150 crore 
  • The management said that CGDs have requested MoPNG to allow HPHT gas to be blended with the existing pool of APM gas 
  • On a QoQ basis, industrial and commercial realisation improved sharply as prices of alternate fuels increased 
  • The management said that proportion of spot LNG in pooled gas blending with APM gas is likely to be 10-15% 
  • The management said that conversion from traditional fuels to CNG was not affected during Q1FY23 in spite of higher prices. Quarterly conversion from traditional fuels to CNG was 19000 vehicles
  Q1FY23 Q1FY23E Q1FY22 YoY (%) Q4FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Total Revenues 1,593.2 1,418.1 666.9 138.9 1,187.6 34.2   Revenue increased YoY on account of price hikes and sales volume growth (on a lower base)
Raw materials costs 1,003.9 834.6 191.0 425.6 707.3 41.9   Sharp rise in gas souricng costs mainly due to increased APM and spot LNG costs
Employees Cost 21.7 21.4 20.0 8.5 18.8 15.9    
Other Expenses 282.0 279.8 151.8 85.7 246.1 14.6    
Total Expenditure 1,307.6 1,135.9 362.9 260.4 972.1 34.5    
EBITDA 285.6 282.3 304.0 -6.1 215.5 32.5   In line with expectations
EBITDA margins (%) 17.9 19.9 45.6 -2766 bps 18.1 -22 bps    
Depreciation 53.7 56.1 45.3 18.6 55.5 -3.3    
EBIT 231.9 226.2 258.7 -10.4 160.0 45.0    
Interest 2.3 1.5 1.7 34.7 2.3 0.9    
Other Income 20.0 21.0 18.6 7.5 22.7 -11.9    
Extra Ordinary Item 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA 0.0 NA    
PBT 249.6 245.7 275.6 -9.5 180.4 38.4    
Total Tax 64.4 62.7 71.6 -10.0 48.6 32.5    
PAT 185.2 183.0 204.1 -9.3 131.8 40.5    
                 
Key Metrics                
Sales Volumes (mmscmd) 3.4 3.3 2.4 43.8 3.2 8.8   CNG volume increased 63.8% YoY while PNG volume grew 7.2% YoY 
Realisation (|/scm) 50.8 46.9 30.6 66.2 41.6 22.0    
Gross Margin (|/scm) 14.4 15.2 19.4 -26.1 13.3 8.0   Higher gas prices led to YoY decline in margins. On QoQ basis, higher realisation led to margin growth

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