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M M Forgings Ltd>
  • CMP : 1,064.0 Chg : 9.35 (0.89%)
  • Target : 1,250.0 (40.45%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

07 Jun 2022

Management shares robust growth outlook for FY23E…

About The Stock

MM Forgings (MMF) is a prominent forging player serving India, Europe and US markets (FY22 geographical mix – domestic ~46%, exports ~54%).

  • FY22 segment mix – CV 85%, PV 10%, Others 5%
  • FY22 capacity utilisation at ~61%, capacity to surpass 1.2 lakh tonne in FY23
Q4FY22

MMF reported healthy Q4FY22 results.

  • Standalone revenue was at ₹ 313.6 crore up 10% QoQ
  • EBITDA margins were at 17.8%, down 160 bps QoQ, amid ~85 bps QoQ gross margin decline as well as higher overhead costs
  • Consequent PAT de-grew ~6% sequentially to ₹ 29.2 crore
  • Guides for 80,000-90,000 tonnage in FY23E vs. ~62,000 tonnage in FY22
What should Investors do?

The company’s stock price has grown at ~24% CAGR from ~₹ 305 levels in June 2017, thereby vastly outperforming Nifty Auto Index.

  • We retain BUY rating on the stock amid supportive macroeconomics, increasing share of machining in product profile & inexpensive valuations
Target Price Valuation

Introducing FY24E, we now value MMF at 14x PE on FY24E basis for a revised target price of ₹ 1250 per share (earlier target price ₹ 1125).

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Healthy demand outlook across served markets. Likely beneficiary of cyclical upswing in the domestic CV space as well as US Class-8 trucks. With introduction of new products as well as increasing share of machining in product profile, sales are seen growing at a CAGR of 28.3% over FY22-24E
  • We expect sales volume to grow at a CAGR of 27% over FY22-24E to ~98,000 tonne in FY24E vs. ~62,000-63,000 tonne clocked in FY22
  • Operating leverage gains to push margins to 20% by FY24E with consequent RoE seen at healthy ~24% in that timeframe
  • Trades at inexpensive valuation of <10x P/E, <7.5x EV/EBITDA on FY24E
New Stock Ideas

Besides MMF, in ancillary coverage, we like Apollo Tyres.

  • India CV revival beneficiary focused on debt reduction, higher return ratios

 

  • BUY with target price of ₹ 250

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22P 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 903.9 727.3 725.6 1,106.7 18.3 1,584.7 1,822.4 28.3
EBITDA 173.2 125.2 121.3 203.8 17.0 301.1 364.5 33.7
EBITDA Margins (%) 19.2 17.2 16.7 18.4 - 19.0 20.0 -
Net Profit 81.3 46.2 46.6 111.8 20.8 164.5 216.0 39.0
EPS (₹) 33.7 19.1 19.3 46.3 - 68.2 89.5 -
P/E 26.4 46.5 46.1 19.2 - 13.1 9.9 -
RoNW (%) 18.6 9.9 9.3 19.4 - 22.8 23.6 -
RoCE (%) 10.2 6.7 5.6 11.1 - 14.6 16.7 -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Key takeaways of Quarter

  • The company posted a healthy operational performance with topline coming in at | 313.6 crore up 10% QoQ.
  • For FY22 total topline was |1088 crore, up 53% YoY
  • Total sales tonnage for Q4FY22 was at ~17,000 tonne while for FY22 it was at ~62,000-63,000 tonne. EBITDA/tonne for Q4FY22 was at ~| 33,250 per tonne while the same for the full year was at ~| 33,400 per tonne. EBITDA margins for Q4FY22 was at 17.8%, down 160 bps QoQ; for FY22 margins were at 18.4%, up 170 bps QoQ

 

Key highlights of conference call

  • Production during FY22 was ~61,000 tonne while sales were at ~62,000-63,000 tonne. Total production capacity was ~1 lakh tonnes. Consequent capacity utilisation for FY22 was at ~61%
  • Machining components share increased to 51% in FY22 vs. ~43% in FY21 leading to better margins with focus to reach to 60-65% in coming years
  • The company guided for production target of 80,000-90,000 tons for FY23, up ~35% YoY based on new order inflows consequent with topline target in range of | 1400-1600 crore
  • Geographical mix: India- 46%; Asia, Europe, US- 20%; South America: 34%
  • New orders for US Class 8 trucks remained muted riding on huge order backlog and waiting period of >10 months vs. normal waiting time of two months
  • The management expects demand to be healthy across the PV and CV space with particular focus on the CV space as it is expected to grow in double digits in FY23 whereas the PV space is expected to continue to be impacted by semiconductor shortage for two to three quarters
  • Term debt as on FY22 was at ~| 430 crore vs. ~| 373 crore in FY21. Net term debt as on FY22 was at ~| 240 crore and is likely to increase by
    ~| 100 crore given the capex guidance
  • Capex guidance for FY23 was ~| 300 crore. It includes~| 200 crore for increasing the machining capacity and ~| 100 crore for de-bottlenecking, which will further augment capacities from 1.2 lakh tonne to 1.3-1.35 lakh tonne
  • Higher tonnage press of ~6,300 tonne to be operationalised by June 2022
  • Top five customers is a mix of OEMS & Tier 1 suppliers and contribute ~50% of sales
  • Out of incremental production target of 30,000 tonnes, roughly 15,000-20,000 would be for newly developed products while the rest would be ramp up of demand from existing components
  • The company remains optimistic on margin improvement, going forward, amid normalisation of input prices as well as better product mix. EBITDA per tonne is expected to improve to | 35,000/tonne and beyond, going forward, vs. ~| 33,400/tonne clocked in Q4FY22

Terms & conditions and other disclosures

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Shashank Kanodia, CFA, MBA (Capital Markets), and Raghvendra Goyal, CA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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