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  • CMP : 2,295.1 Chg : 1.0 (0.04%)
  • Target : 610.0 (7.58%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

05 Aug 2022

US measures weigh on Q1; turnaround stretched…

About The Stock

Lupin is a multinational pharma company engaged in manufacturing & marketing branded & generic formulations, APIs, biotech products as well as OTC medicines across multiple dosage forms & therapeutic categories.

  • It is the third largest generic player (by prescriptions) in the US (market leader: 44 products; Top 3: 113 products) along with being sixth largest company in the Indian pharmaceutical market
  • The company was recently going through a rough patch especially on the US generics front due to plant compliance issues besides margins pressure
Q1FY23

Lupin’s revenues from US plummeted due to price erosion, shelf stock adjustments and inventory write-downs.

  • Sales were down 12% YoY to ₹ 3744 crore
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 164 crore, down 82% YoY with margins at 4.4%
  • Adjusted loss of ₹ 89 crore vs. profit of ₹ 542 crore in Q1FY22
What should Investors do?

Lupin’s share price de-grew 0.86x in past three years

  • Downgraded the stock from HOLD to REDUCE rating due to 1) uncertainty and weak visibility on key high value launches, along with likely over-reliance on gSpiriva US launch in Q4FY23, 2) pending regulatory clearances and 3) delay in margin recovery
Target Price and Valuation

Valued Lupin at ₹ 610 i.e. 22x FY24E EPS of ₹ 27.7

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Resolving regulatory challenges and speeding up approvals and planned key launches (FY23: Suprep and Spiriva) from pipeline earmarked for US
  • Lupin plans to strengthen the biosimilars portfolio, especially in EU and US apart from continued respiratory traction (gAlbuterol and Brovana) in US. Change in mix towards complex products and with expense optimisation to improve margin profile
  • R&D investment earmarked now to evolve generic portfolio focused towards complex generics in Injectable, Inhalation along with biosimilars
  • Doubling down on India and ex-US geographies. Exploring both organic and inorganic opportunities in different therapies for domestic formulations
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from Lupin, in our healthcare coverage we like Cipla.

  • Cipla has a long-drawn strategy of targeting four verticals viz. One-India, South Africa & EMs, US generics & specialty and lung leadership

 

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1135

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Revenues 16,718.2 16,393.1 15,163.3 16,405.4 -1.3 15,857.7 17,379.0 2.9
EBITDA 2,704.2 2,549.7 2,658.2 2,097.2 -14.1 1,850.2 2,869.5 17.0
EBITDA margins(%) 16.2 15.6 17.5 12.8 - 11.7 16.5 -
Net Profit 748.0 -575.0 1,216.9 538.0 -190.2 533.0 1,255.5 52.8
EPS (|) 16.5 -12.7 26.9 11.9 - 11.8 27.7 -
PE (x) 47.0 -95.7 23.6
EV to EBITDA (x) 12.6 11.9 11.1 14.7 - 16.7 10.1 -
Price to book (x) 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.4 - 2.4 2.2 -
RoNW (%) 5.4 -4.6 8.8 4.4 - 4.2 9.2 -
RoCE (%) 9.4 9.7 9.6 3.4 - 5.8 10.9 -
Debt / Equity 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 - 0.3 0.2 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q1FY23 Results: US continues to weigh on numbers

  • Revenues declined 12% YoY to | 3744 crore wherein domestic formulations de-grew 9% YoY to | 1492 crore. US revenues declined 24% YoY to | 1010 crore while South Africa business declined 2% YoY to | 140 crore. RoW markets expanded 32% YoY to | 513 crore and APIs grew 4% YoY to | 255 crore. EBITDA margins were down 1734 bps YoY at ~4.4% against I-direct estimate of 11.5%. EBITDA de-grew 82% YoY to | 164 crore. Lupin posted loss of | 89 crore vs. profit of | 542 crore in Q1FY22
  • Lupin’s Q1 was a miss on all fronts. Revenues came in below expectations as US, South Africa and India posted lower than expected sales being only partly offset by RoW and APIs offtake. Margins and profitability were a significant miss amid adverse operating leverage and strategic initiatives in US. Lupin continues to remain on a weak footing in US which largely reflects in single digit margin profile for consecutive quarters. In Q1, the management pared down inventories and undertook shelf stock adjustments in US while the base business remains impacted by price erosion. Lupin is focused on optimising operating expenses and ensuring the evolution of complex generic platforms along with global portfolio maximisation while doubling down on markets like India. We believe new launches post clearance of Goa and Somerset facility along with regulatory clearance for other plants could be the near term trigger along with progress on the margins front

 

Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • US: In last few years, Lupin has been experiencing huge stock return on account of high inventory levels in US. During Q1, Lupin brought down inventory levels in key products which impacted sales in this quarter. Price erosion in certain products had brought down margins for certain products to single digit to negative territory, so company has discontinued some of those products from this quarter in US. Double digit price erosion (~10%) coupled with shelf stock adjustments also contributed to muted show in US. Albuterol market share was at 23.2% in Q1 while further new launches remain key for progress on revenues and margins front. Management has focussed on optimising workforce (impacting 14% of workforce) in manufacturing plants in India, with benefits likely to be witnessed from Q2
  • In terms of guidance management is indicating for ~ US$150-160 million sales per quarter as new base for US. Authorised generic for Suprep is already launched and generic for Suprep (from Somerset facility) is expected by late Q2FY23. Device manufacturer for Spiriva was inspected by USFDA and management has answered all the queries, while Pithampur unit-III was also inspected in past for the same. Post clearance of Somerset facility, management is guiding for couple of niche products (Diazepam gel and Nascobal spray) from here apart from Suprep. Company is expecting Somerset facility to be profitable going forward. Overall Lupin is targeting 10+ launches in FY23
  • Margins: Adjusting for strategic moves in revenues (~US$50 million), gross margins were impacted by about 200 bps in this quarter. On margins front, company is expecting sequential improvement and reach double digits due to, 1) new initiatives on workforce planning, 2) Lupin to move out of legacy OSD business to complex generics, leading to better realisations, 3) increased ability for launches as plants come out of OAI, 4) reduction in FTS, 5) reduction in air freighting (at ~34%) and 4) progress in ex-US geographies. Partnered products have gone up recently (~15-16%) which will decrease over time. Management hopes to save about ~ | 500 - | 750 crores on annualised basis from quarters ahead on back of all the initiatives. About 20-24% SG&A spend is allocated to US. The management is guiding to exit FY23 with 17-18% margin profile in Q4 and do about 20%+ margins on back of ramp-up for Spiriva in FY24

 

  • India: Ex-Covid India grew 5.6% YoY. Core chronic therapies like CVS, diabetics and respiratory de-grew for IPM and Lupin in Q1FY23. There are some headwinds amid a brand lost in Cardiac, additional generic competition in Diabetic and slow ramp up in respiratory. The management is expecting double digit growth in remainder of FY23
  • Etanercept is progressing well in geographies in partnership with Mylan and has crossed US$10 million levels
  • Emerging market business was US$200 million in revenues and with margins of about 18%. The company is looking to turn profitable in Brazil while other geographies are fetching high margins. Lupin aims to grow at 15-20% in the next four to five years and reach US$400-500 revenues
  • Lupin is maintaining high inventory levels due to strategic buying of raw materials. Working capital days has increased to 147 days and the management hopes to bring it down to about 130 days.
 
Variance Analysis

(| crore) Q1FY23 Q1FY23E Q1FY22 YoY (%) Q4FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 3,743.8 4,007.3 4,270.2 -12.3 3,883.0 -3.6   YoY revenues declined mainly driven by US on back of discontinuation of ~ 15 products, shelf stock adjustments and lowering trade inventory 
Raw Material Expenses 1,609.8 1,683.1 1,528.0 5.4 1,632.2 -1.4    
as % of sales 43.0 42.0 35.8 722 bps 42.0 96 bps   Gross margins at 57% against 64% in Q1FY22, decline due to double digit price erosion in US, higher input cost and strategic measures
Employee Expenses 778.5 721.3 783.7 -0.7 703.1 10.7    
Other Expenditure 1,191.6 1,144.0 1,030.9 15.6 1,321.2 -9.8    
EBITDA 163.9 458.9 927.6 -82.3 226.5 -27.6    
EBITDA (%) 4.4 11.5 21.7 -1734 bps 5.8 -145 bps   YoY decline due to lower gross margins and adverse operating leverage
Interest  42.8 38.7 33.5 27.8 41.5 3.2    
Depreciation 192.8 254.8 208.8 -7.6 327.2 -41.1    
Other Income 5.6 34.6 27.8 -80.0 15.7 -64.5    
Less: Exceptional Items 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA -1.2 NA    
PBT  2.3 200.0 750.3 -99.7 -85.2 -102.7    
Tax  89.1 54.0 202.3 -56.0 426.7 -79.1    
PAT before MI -86.8 146.0 548.0 -115.8 -511.9 -83.0    
Minority Interest 2.3 1.5 5.7 -60.4 6.3 -63.8    
Net Profit -89.1 144.7 542.5 -116.4 -518.0 -82.8    
Adjusted PAT -89.1 144.7 542.5 -116.4 -525.0 -83.0    
Key Metrics                
India 1,492.0 1,554.4 1,636.2 -8.8 1,351.1 10.4   Ex-Covid India grew 5.6% YoY
US 1,010.4 1,367.7 1,333.0 -24.2 1,416.2 -28.7   YoY decline as Lupin pared down inventories and undertook shelf stock adjustments in US while the base remains impacted by price erosion
South Africa 139.6 175.7 142.6 -2.1 210.4 -33.7   ZAR 282 million sales in Q1FY23 versus ZAR 273 million in Q1FY22
ROW markets 513.0 434.1 387.6 32.4 469.7 9.2    
API 255.1 233.6 245.9 3.7 220.3 15.8    

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