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  • CMP : 2,124.5 Chg : 5.40 (0.25%)
  • Target : 610.0 (-3.94%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

23 May 2022

Downbeat margins; triggers for US awaited…

About The Stock

Lupin is a multinational pharma company engaged in manufacturing & marketing branded & generic formulations, APIs, biotech products as well as OTC medicines across multiple dosage forms & therapeutic categories.

  • It is the third largest generic player (by prescriptions) in the US with 166 generic products (market leader: 44 products; Top 3: 113 products) along with being sixth largest company in Indian pharmaceutical market
  • The company was recently going through a rough patch especially on the US generics front due to plant compliance issues besides margins pressure
Q4FY22

Lupin’s revenues from US remained subdued while profitability was hampered due to high other expenses and impairment charges (₹ 127 crore)

  • Sales were up 2.6% YoY to ₹ 3883 crore
    • EBITDA was at ₹ 226.5 crore, down 68% YoY with margins at 5.8% mainly due to multiple factors namely - 1) higher input cost, 2) double digit price erosion in US, 3) losartan recalls, 4) Solosec litigation payment, 4) lower operating leverage and 5) higher freight cost
  • Adjusted loss of ₹ 525 crore vs. profit of ₹ 460 crore in Q4FY21
What should Investors do?

Lupin’s share price de-grew 0.8x over past three years

  • We retain HOLD rating on the stock amid 1) high price erosion in US ~16%, 2) high inflation in input and freight cost, 3) pending regulatory clearances and 4) time lag in high value complex launches in the US
Target Price Valuation

Valued Lupin at ₹ 610 i.e. 20x FY24E EPS of ₹ 30.5

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Resolving regulatory challenges and speeding up approvals and planned key high value launches from pipeline
  • Lupin plans to strengthen the biosimilars portfolio especially in EU and US apart from continued respiratory traction (gAlbuterol and Brovana) in US. Change in mix towards complex products to improve margin profile
  • R&D investment earmarked now to evolve generic portfolio focused towards complex generics and biosimilar
  • Launch of new divisions: CNS, diabetes and anti-infective in domestic formulations along with progress on inorganic opportunities for growth
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from Lupin, in our healthcare coverage we like Cipla.

  • Cipla has a long-drawn strategy of targeting four verticals viz. One-India, South Africa & EMs, US generics & specialty and lung leadership
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1095

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Revenues 16,718.2 16,393.1 15,163.3 16,405.4 -1.3 16,673.0 18,134.3 5.1
EBITDA 2,704.2 2,549.7 2,658.2 2,097.2 -14.1 2,204.3 2,939.4 18.4
EBITDA margins(%) 16.2 15.6 17.5 12.8 - 13.2 16.2 -
Net Profit 748.0 -575.0 1,216.9 538.0 -190.2 849.0 1,380.5 60.2
EPS (|) 16.5 -12.7 26.9 11.9 - 18.7 30.5 -
PE (x) 47.0 -95.7 23.6
EV to EBITDA (x) 12.6 11.9 11.1 14.7 - 13.5 9.6 -
Price to book (x) 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.4 - 2.2 2.0 -
RoNW (%) 5.4 -4.6 8.8 4.4 - 6.6 9.8 -
RoCE (%) 9.4 9.7 9.6 3.4 - 7.6 11.2 -
Debt / Equity 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 - 0.3 0.2 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q4FY22 Results: Revenue steady, Margins weak

  • Revenues grew 3% YoY to | 3883 crore; wherein domestic formulations grew 5% YoY to | 1351 crore. The domestic formulations growth was lower amid seasonally weaker quarter and lower offtake in tender business (Priscription business grew 13.9% YoY). US revenues de-grew 5% YoY to
    | 1416 crore due to 1) recall for Losartan, 2) loss of exclusivity for Brovanna and new competition, 3) high double digit price erosion and 4) lower offtake for acute therapies. South Africa business remained flat YoY to | 210 crore while RoW markets expanded by 35% YoY to | 470 crore. API de-grew 14% YoY to | 220 crore mainly due to lower demand for acute therapies globally
  • EBITDA margins were down 1287 bps YoY at ~5.8%. EBITDA de-grew 68% YoY to | 226 crore. Decline in EBITDA was on back of multiple factors namely - 1) higher input cost, 2) double digit price erosion in US, 3) losartan recalls, 4) Solosec litigation payment, 4) lower operating leverage and 5) higher freight cost. Lupin posted adjusted loss of | 525 crore vs. adjusted profit of | 460 crore in Q4FY21. Delta vis-à-vis EBITDA was mainly due to higher interest, depreciation and tax expense along with lower other income in this quarter. Depreciation included Impairment expense | 126.7 crore on account of impairment of Gavis IPs
  • Lupin’s performance was skewed on revenues front amid US and India posting lower than expected sales while RoW and South Africa saw better than anticipated traction this quarter. Margins and profitability were a significant miss due to very high ex-R&D other expenditure (up 26% YoY) and impairment charges of | 129 crore in respect of acquired IPs consequent to adverse market conditions. The current quarter was challenging with headwinds in US on account of price erosion, and inflation in input materials and freight cost. Lupin is focused on optimising operating expenses and spend and ensuring the evolution of complex generic platforms along with global portfolio maximization while doubling down on markets like India
  • The board of directors recommended a dividend of | 4 per equity share.

 

Q4FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Impairment expense of Q4FY22 includes | 126.7 crore on account of impairment of Gavis IPs
  • North America:  Price erosion increased from 7% in January to 16% levels. Albuterol has achieved a market share of 22.6% while Brovana has lost exclusivity and new competition has settled in. Inhalation portfolio is at 25% of US sales. Launched two products in Q4 in US (gTaytulla and gRenagel) The management indicated at Suprep launch in Q2FY23 and likes of Spiriva later in FY23, bPegflgrastim most likely to follow in FY24. Lupin is prioritising pipeline comprising of complex injectable, biosimilar and niche OSD
  • India: Q4 is a seasonally weaker quarter, which was further compounded by lower offtake in tender business. Prescription business grew 13.9% YoY. Respiratory & Gynae registered double-digit growth in Q4FY22. New divisions launched: MindNext (CNS), Lupin Inspire (Diabetes), Maxter Neo (Anti-infective). The management guided for double digit organic growth in domestic formulations.
Variance Analysis

(| crore) Q4FY22 Q4FY22E Q4FY21 YoY (%) Q3FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 3,883.0 4,039.8 3,783.1 2.6 4,160.9 -6.7   YoY revenues mainly driven by strong growth in RoW markets while presisting headwinds in US
Raw Material Expenses 1,632.2 1,626.0 1,317.6 23.9 1,694.6 -3.7    
as % of sales 42.0 40.3 34.8 721 bps 40.7 131 bps   Gross margins at 58% against 65.2% in Q4FY21, decline due to high double digit price erosion in US and higher input cost
Employee Expenses 703.1 722.2 640.2 9.8 743.8 -5.5    
Other Expenditure 1,321.2 1,152.2 1,117.8 18.2 1,351.8 -2.3    
EBITDA 226.5 539.4 707.6 -68.0 370.7 -38.9    
EBITDA (%) 5.8 13.4 18.7 -1287 bps 8.9 -308 bps   YoY decline due to 1) losartan and other recalls, 2) Solosec litigation payment, 3) lower operating leverage and 4) higher freight cost
Interest  41.5 33.4 31.8 30.2 33.4 24.2    
Depreciation 327.2 203.4 215.7 51.7 203.4 60.8   Q4FY22 includes | 126.7 crore on account of impairment of Gavis IPs.
Other Income 15.7 33.3 48.6 -67.8 34.1 -54.0    
Less: Exceptional Items -1.2 0.0 0.0 NA 0.0 NA    
PBT  -85.2 335.9 518.2 -116.4 167.0 -151.0    
Tax  426.7 89.0 54.0 690.1 -382.0 -211.7    
PAT before MI -511.9 246.9 464.2 -210.3 549.0 -193.2    
Minority Interest 6.3 2.3 4.0 55.9 3.6 75.6    
Net Profit -518.0 244.7 460.4 -212.5 545.5 -195.0    
Adjusted PAT -525.0 244.7 460.4 -214.0 545.5 -196.2   Delta vis-à-vis EBITDA was mainly due to higher interest, depreciation and tax expense along with lower other income in this quarter
Key Metrics                
India 1,351.1 1,408.8 1,286.6 5.0 1,473.3 -8.3   YoY growth amid seasonally weaker quarter and lower offtake in tender business (Priscription business grew 13.9% YoY)
US 1,416.2 1,552.9 1,495.2 -5.3 1,577.5 -10.2   YoY decline amid 1) recall for Losartan, 2) loss of exclusivity for Brovanna and new competition, 3) high double digit price erosion and 4) lower offtake for acute therapies  
South Africa 210.4 191.6 210.2 0.1 154.7 36.0    
ROW markets 469.7 388.6 347.0 35.4 438.1 7.2    
API 220.3 268.4 255.6 -13.8 256.4 -14.1   YoY decline mainly due to lower demand for acute therapies globally

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