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  • CMP : 2,274.5 Chg : -0.40 (-0.02%)
  • Target : 725.0 (-1.63%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

11 Feb 2023

Mixed Q3, margin recovery remains main focus…

About The Stock

Lupin is a multinational pharma company engaged in manufacturing & marketing branded & generic formulations, APIs, biotech products as well as OTC medicines across multiple dosage forms & therapeutic categories.

  • It is the third largest generic player (by prescriptions) in the US (market leader: 44 products; Top three: 113 products) besides being the sixth largest company in the Indian pharmaceutical market
  • The company continues to face headwinds especially on the US generics front due to persistent price erosion in OSD and plant compliance issues
Q3FY23

Mixed set of numbers with revenue beat but margins miss.

  • Revenues grew 3.9% YoY to ₹ 4322 crore
  • EBITDA margins improved 303 bps YoY to 11.9% 
  • Adjusted PAT came in at ₹ 143 crore
What should Investors do?

Lupin’s share price has grown at 1.6% CAGR over the past three years

  • We have changed the rating from REDUCE to HOLD but maintain a neutral stance due to 1) sensitivity of margin recovery on few US launches, 2) ongoing cost rationalisation that is yet to bring sustainable cost reduction, 3) weak return ratios
Target Price and Valuation

Valued Lupin at ₹ 725 i.e. 22x FY25E EPS of ₹ 33.0.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • US - Resolving regulatory challenges and speeding up approvals and key launches (FY23: Spiriva and Darunavir) besides traction from recently acquired inhalation brands- Brovana® and Xopenex HFA®
  • Lupin plans to strengthen the biosimilars portfolio, especially in EU and the US. Change in mix towards complex products and with expense optimisation to improve margin profile
  • R&D investment earmarked now to evolve generic portfolio focused towards complex generics in injectable, inhalation along with biosimilars
  • Exploring both organic and inorganic opportunities in different therapies for domestic formulations
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from Lupin, in our healthcare coverage we like Cipla.

  • Cipla has a long-drawn strategy of targeting four verticals viz. One-India, South Africa & EMs, US generics & specialty and lung leadership
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1290

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (FY23E-FY25E)
Revenues 16,393.1 15,163.0 16,405.4 -1.3 16,260.3 17,686.5 19,590.7 9.8
EBITDA 2,549.7 2,657.8 2,097.2 -14.1 1,754.9 2,923.7 3,531.9 41.9
EBITDA margins(%) 15.6 17.5 12.8 - 10.8 16.5 18.0 -
Net Profit -575.0 1,216.5 538.0 -190.2 376.7 1,161.3 1,493.7 99.1
EPS (|) -12.7 26.9 11.9 - 8.3 25.6 33.0 -
PE (x) -111.1 27.4
EV to EBITDA (x) 13.7 12.8 16.8 - 20.2 11.6 9.3 -
RoNW (%) -4.6 8.8 4.4 - 3.0 8.6 10.2 -
RoCE (%) 9.7 9.6 3.4 - 5.7 11.0 13.0 -
Debt / Equity 0.5 0.4 0.3 - 0.3 0.2 0.2 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q3FY23 Results: Mixed set of numbers with revenue beat but margins miss

  • Revenues grew 3.9% YoY to | 4322 crore. India business grew 3.3% YoY to | 1521 crore. US de-grew 3.2% YoY at | 1527 crore. South Africa grew 16% YoY at | 180 crore. RoW grew 22% YoY to | 534.5 crore. API increased 9.8% YoY to | 281 crore. EBITDA margins improved 303 bps YoY to 11.9%. Adjusted PAT came in at | 143 crore
  • Lupin continued to build on momentum in Q3 both on revenues and in particular on margins front. It experienced benefits from new launches and better flu season in the US, reduction in freight rates and continued savings from its optimisation measures. Key takeaway from the numbers was ~15% QoQ growth in the US even as other geographies performed below-par. However, the recovery in margins was not up to the mark. At ~12%, the margins are well below the historical trend of +20% and even the recent trend of +15%. The company’s recovery path hinges on the margins recovery and would continue to weigh on the sentiments

 

Q3FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights:

Segmental blend:

India: It gained significant launch momentum with multiple new introductions in the quarter.

  • Therapeutic areas like Cardiac, GI, respiratory have delivered double digit growth during the quarter
  • Its gynaecology and GI have actually been the fastest growth therapeutic areas
  • Diabetes portfolio was in line with expectations. It is recovering from impact of patent expiries in the segment

 

US: Its respiratory franchise got strengthened with Albuterol’s continuous strong performance.

  • Also, there was a slight decline due to exit from low margin products, which were offset almost completely by seasonal products
  • It faced price erosion in top brands like Brovana, Albuterol and Famotidine
  • Focus remains on increasing complex share
  • Its new product launches where it has either exclusivity or first to market position will drive growth of the US business in a profitable manner

 

RoW: The growth was driven from Germany and Australia markets.

  • Men’s health, Namuscla and Tempil were key performers in Germany whereas SCP acquisition augurs well for Australia business
  • Currency benefits supported the Brazilian business

 

API: API business rebounded well. Revenues grew 9.8% YoY.

  • Continued leadership in anti-TB Institutional business and increased ARV presence aided well

 

Launches:

  • It launched Difizma – novel DPI combination in January 2023 in India
  • In the US, it launched Formoterol (gPerforomist), Diclofenac 2% (Pennsaid AG), Rufinamide tablets and Paliperidone ER tablets in Q3FY23
  • The management sees some hope in approval for products like diazepam gel and Nascobal post the recent successful Somerset audit
  • It expects Tutopium as a substantial opportunity for FY24 with a significant runway, given the competitive dynamics

Disclaimer

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