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LTIMindtree Ltd>
  • CMP : 4,788.1 Chg : 153.35 (3.31%)
  • Target : 4,940.0 (15.69%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

22 Jan 2023

Smooth take off; synergy benefits likely visible in medium term

About The Stock

LTIMindtree (LTIM) is the merged entity formed after the merger of erstwhile Mindtree with LTI. It offers application development, IMS, digital solution services to BFSI, retail, health, media & hi-tech verticals.

  • LTIM has 750+ clients and combined annual revenue over US$3.5 bn +
  • LTIM has a combined employee strength of 86,000+ across 30+ countries
Q3FY23 Results:

LTIM reported weak Q3 numbers.

  • In CC terms, revenues grew 1.9% QoQ and 16.3% YoY
  • EBIT margins declined 360 bps QoQ to 13.9%
  • Order inflow of US$1.25 billion (bn) for the quarter
What should Investors do?

LTIM’s share price has grown by ~5.5x over the past five years (from ~₹ 770 in January 2018 to ~₹ 4,270 levels in January 2023).

  • We maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value LTIM at ₹ 4,940 i.e. 24x FY25E EPS

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Merger expected to provide cross sell and up sell opportunities with scale benefits likely to kick in while participating in large deals hunt
  • Aiming for merger related benefit of US$1 bn in revenues and 200-300 bps margin expansion in the next four to five years
  • Vendor consolidation opportunity and digital acceleration. We expect LTIM to register revenue growth at 15.8% CAGR in FY22-25E
Alternate Stock Idea:

Apart from LTIM, in our coverage we like Infosys.

  • Key beneficiary of improved digital demand, industry leading revenue growth and healthy capital allocation prompt us to be positive

 

  • We have a BUY rating with a target price of ₹ 1,730

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 Year CAGR (FY22-FY25E)
Net Sales 18,642.9 20,337.6 26,108.7 17.3 33,281.0 37,232.4 40,572.7 15.8
EBITDA 3,091.7 4,381.8 5,248.6 22.1 6,157.0 7,148.6 8,236.3 16.2
EBITDA Margins (%) 16.6 21.5 20.1 - 18.5 19.2 20.3 -
Net Profit 2,151.4 3,048.7 3,950.0 23.2 4,553.6 5,229.2 6,092.8 15.5
EPS (|) 124.9 177.7 133.4 - 153.9 176.8 206.0 -
P/E (x) 67.5 47.7 32.0 - 27.7 24.2 20.7 -
RoE (%) 25.1 26.2 27.6 - 27.2 27.1 27.2 -
RoCE (%) 27.3 31.7 34.1 - 33.2 33.1 33.4 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of quarter and conference call highlights

  • The company reported constant currency growth of 1.9% QoQ while dollar revenue growth was 2.4% QoQ. LTIMindtree in dollar terms reported revenue of US$1,046.7 bn while in rupee terms revenue was at | 8,620 crore, up 4.8% QoQ

 

  • Vertical wise manufacturing (17.5% of mix) led the growth with 10.6% QoQ growth while BFSI (37.4% of mix) and CPG & Retail (15.2% of the mix) grew 5.8% and 1.1%, respectively. Hi-Tech & health declined 4.5% & 5.1% QoQ, respectively

 

  • Geography wise North America (72.3% of mix) reported muted growth of 1.6% QoQ while Europe & RoW reported growth of 4.5% & 4.9%, respectively

 

  • EBIT margin of the company declined ~360 bps QoQ to 13.9%. The company indicated that decline in margins was due to the impact of following headwinds: a) ~130 bps furlough impact, b) 100 bps merger integration cost and c) 130 bps due to increase in employee cost

 

  • The company indicated that it had zero disturbance after the merger since the teams were working on it from some time in terms of client engagements as well as employee engagements internally and integration has been progressing smoothly. It is expecting synergy benefits of US$1 bn and margin expansion of 200 to 300 bps over the next four to five years. LTIMindtree also mentioned that it has a healthy pipeline ahead and continues to see large deals in the market. The company also indicated that it is in advanced stages of some multi-year opportunities with a few of its clients and announcement of the same will made in due course

 

  • The company also indicated it has a strong sales structure in place. It may go ahead with a consolidated sales head role (compared to a split role where it had appointed two senior leaders) ahead after the resignation of the senior leader there. LTIMindtree mentioned it has an overlap in a handful of clients and is using this opportunity for cross sales and upscale at the same time. It has kept the same leadership there for the comfort of the client. The company also indicated there are no white spaces in the structure as far as leadership is concerned

 

  • The company also indicated it is not seeing any major issues in banking, insurance, energy verticals barring a few pockets of weakness as far as client spending is concerned and they are fairly resilient. LTIMindtree added that it has seen some weakness in the Hi-tech vertical as well as real estate piece of Travel & Hospitality (TTH) vertical. Real estate weakness could be attributed to high interest rate scenario and clients are re-aligning their budgets in this segment but the company is hopeful of a recovery in the medium term. The company also mentioned it has not seen any project cancellation so far from clients but slower decision making in some cases as mentioned above is visible

 

  • The company indicated that BFSI is now a US$1 bn vertical now for it and expects strong growth momentum in this vertical from deal wins and price increase. It also mentioned that regulatory, compliance, cost optimisation are some key areas for client spending. In manufacturing; ERP, IoT, security are some key spending areas. Healthcare vertical has seen some softness in public sector area while remote patient monitoring is one of the key areas of spending

 

 

 

  • The company indicated that clients in the last two years have started on the path of digital transformation and it is not in its favour to stop this program considering the time and investment that has been put in over these years and clients are expected to continue their investments. LTIMindtree also added that tech spending in the areas of cloud, data and cybersecurity are resilient. The company also mentioned that clients are looking to spend on cost take out deals and are likely to continue spending on transformation through those savings. LTIMindtree is looking to double down on the efforts on large deals since it now has the combined large deal team of LTI and Mindtree. The company is in the process of finding a common leader for this team. LTIMindtree also indicated that it is looking to capitalise on the strength of engineering expertise of LTI and customer experience expertise of Mindtree to capture market opportunities while increase in scale will help it as far large deals are concerned

 

  • The company indicated that its net employees declined by 474 taking the total number of employees to 86,462. LTIMindtree also added that its LTM attrition declined by 180 bps QoQ to 22.3%

 

  • The company mentioned that net employee decline for the quarter is temporary and hiring is likely to see rebound. LTIMindtree also added that it is not looking for aggressive hiring ahead but hiring will be in line with demand. Quarterly annualised attrition has been at 18% for the quarter and it expects it to moderate, going forward. It has given one-time compensation for the niche skills for the quarter due to high inflation and indicated that few more interventions can be done

 

  • The company also mentioned that since both companies follow different quarters of annual increments, it would continue with the same for the time being. Hence, some quarterly interventions may be required from time to time till it streamlines the process. The company also mentioned it has an opportunity to recover these costs from clients in the form of price hikes. The company also indicated that it is looking for margin expansion of 200-300 bps over the next four to five years on i) moderation of attrition, ii) fresher deployment, iii) synergy benefits and iv) price increase

 

  • The company declared an interim dividend of | 20 per share
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q3FY23   Q3FY23E   Q3FY22   YoY (%)  Q2FY23  QoQ (%)  Comments
 Revenue (US$ mn)            1,047           1,051              918 14.0           1,022 2.4 Revenue grew 1.9% in CC terms
Revenue (| crore) 8,620 8,639 6,881 25.3 8,228 4.8  
Employee expenses 6,156 5,788 4,660 32.1 5,690 8.2 Employee cost increased due to hike given to certain employees for certain niche skills & annual bonus given freshers on completion of 12 months
               
Gross Margin 2,465 2,851 2,220 11.0 2,537 -2.9  
Gross margin (%) 28.6 33.0 32.3 -368 bps 30.8 -225 bps  
Other expenses 1,090 1,339 794 37.2 902 20.8  
               
EBITDA 1,375 1,512 1,426 -3.6 1,636 -15.9  
EBITDA Margin (%) 15.9 17.5 20.7 -478 bps 19.9 -393 bps  
Depreciation & amort 178 216 152 17.3 196 -9.1  
EBIT 1,197 1,296 1,275 -6.1 1,440 -16.9  
EBIT Margin (%) 13.9 15.0 18.5 -464 bps 17.5 -362 bps Margin impacted by the following Headwinds - a) ~130 bps furlough impact, b) 100 bps merger integration cost & c) 130bps due to increase in employee cost
Other income 114 128 135 -15.4 152 -25.3  
PBT 1,311 1,424 1,409 -7.0 1,592 -17.7  
Tax paid 310 356 359 -13.7 374 -17.1  
PAT 1,001 1,068 1,050 -4.7 1,189 -15.8  

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Sameer Pardikar, MBA, Sujay S. Chavan, MMS, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

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