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  • CMP : 6,216.0 Chg : -53.50 (-0.85%)
  • Target : 5,525.0 (18.31%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

16 Oct 2022

Strong H2 growth expected…

About The Stock

Larsen & Toubro Infotech (LTI) offers application development, IMS, digital solution services to BFSI, retail, health, media & hi-tech verticals.

  • LTI has 71 Fortune-500 clients with a presence in North America & Europe
  • LTI has grown at 19% CAGR over FY17-22 with robust margins (>19%)
Q2FY23 Results:

 

LTI reported robust Q2 revenue numbers

  • Constant currency revenues increased by 4.6% QoQ
  • EBIT margin increased by 10 bps QoQ to 16.1%
  • The company won four large deals of US$ 80 mn TCV
What should Investors do?

LTI’s share price has grown by ~5x over the past five years (from ~₹ 814 in October 2017 to ~₹ 4,670 levels in October 2022).

  • We changed the rating from HOLD to BUY
Target Price and Valuation

We value LTI at ₹ 5,525 i.e. 26x FY25E EPS

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Growth is expected to pick up from Q2 onwards
  • Margin is likely to expand as wage hike impact is behind
  • Deal momentum continues to be strong as the company signed 4 large new deals worth US$ 80 Million (mn) and added one Fortune 500 clients in Q2
  • Vendor consolidation opportunity and digital acceleration. We expect LTI to register 15.1% CAGR revenue growth in FY22-25E
Alternate Stock Idea:

Apart from LTI, in our coverage we like Infosys.

  • Key beneficiary of improved digital demand, industry leading revenue growth and healthy capital allocation prompt us to be positives
  •  We have a BUY rating with a target price of ₹ 1,670

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR (FY22-25E)
Net Sales 10,878.6 12,369.8 15,668.7 19.2 19,301.4 21,676.6 23,895.6 15.1
EBITDA 2,029.4 2,725.1 3,058.4 20.0 3,773.4 4,446.7 5,239.4 19.7
EBITDA Margins (%) 18.7 22.0 19.5 - 19.6 20.5 21.9 -
Net Profit 1,520.5 1,938.2 2,298.5 18.8 2,645.0 3,162.0 3,733.7 17.6
EPS (|) 86.6 110.3 130.8 - 150.5 180.0 212.5 -
P/E (x) 53.9 42.4 35.7 - 31.0 26.0 22.0 -
RoE (%) 28.1 26.5 26.1 - 25.6 26.0 26.0 -
RoCE (%) 30.7 31.9 32.3 - 30.8 31.0 31.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of quarter and conference call highlights

  • The company reported constant currency growth of 4.6% QoQ while dollar revenue growth was 3.6% QoQ implying cross currency impact of 100 bps. The company in dollar terms reported revenue of US$ 601 mn. In rupee terms, revenue grew strongly at 6.9% QoQ to | 4,836.7 crore

 

  • In terms of CC all verticals except hi-tech reported strong growth on QoQ basis with BFS, Insurance, Manufacturing, Utilities, CPG & Others reporting a growth of 5%, 4.5%, 3.9%, 14%, 3.4% & 9.8% respectively while Hi-Tech declined by 4.7%

 

  • In CC terms, North America & Europe reported strong growth of 5.2% & 6.3% QoQ, respectively, but in dollar terms Europe reported growth 1.6% QoQ implying currency headwinds. India revenue declined successively for second quarter reporting a decline of 4.3% QoQ. In terms of client profile, Top 5 customers reported growth of 5% QoQ & Top 10 customers grew by 4.1% QoQ

 

  • EBIT margin improved by ~10 bps QoQ on account of the following tailwinds: a) currency benefits +120 bps, b) higher working days +20 bps mitigated by the following headwinds: a) increase in employee cost -90 bps, b) utilization down impact – 40 bps. The company maintained it guidance of PAT margin in the band of 14-15% for FY23

 

  • The company indicated Mindtree merger with LTI is in last leg of regulatory approvals and it is likely to complete at the end of CY22. The company also indicated that plan is being work on functioning of the merged entity and integration of the two companies is likely to complete in Q4FY23. It also indicated that integration related costs are likely to hit P&L in Q3 and Q4 as they are looking at an accelerated integration. The company also indicated that there are 80+ deals which are being pursued as a joint effort.  

 

  • The company indicated after the first year after pandemic as well as during the pandemic, demand accelerated as clients realised tech spending is crucial for their business survival in the long run. This pace further accelerated as clients continue to spend on revenue maximisation programs and cost optimisation programs also came along. In third year, it saw accelerated business decision shifting into regular business decisions hence some moderation is expected in CY23. But the company is not witnessing any cancellation of any of the programs as business transformation journey for the clients continues. The company in fact is expecting its H2 to be stronger than H1. The company is confident of Europe region growth going forward on the back of deal tractions and new logo wins.

 

  • The company won 4 large deals in Q2 with TCV of US$80mn, out of which 3 with existing clients and 1 new logo (fortune 500 client). It added 22 new logos in BFSI for the quarter. The deal pipeline continues to be at US$2bn

 

  • The company witnessed decline in revenues for Hi-tech vertical for the quarter. The company indicated that it is due to a client specific impact as one of its clients has changed delivery model from onsite to offshore. The company indicated that Hi-Tech has been strong growth vertical for them (20% growth last year) and growth is likely to recover in the next quarter and outlook for the medium term also remained strong as they are not seeing in tech spending slowdown here. The company also indicated that delivery model change (onsite to offshore), they are likely to see better margins in this vertical going forward.

 

  • The company indicated that they are not seeing any impact in BFS vertical and it is expected to keep the growth momentum ahead. This could on account of nature of offering by them. They mentioned that they work with clients in this vertical on compliance, commercial banking & wealth management, payments etc where growth continued to be strong. The company also mentioned that they do not have much exposure to mortgage and retail banking where the impact of slowdown is visible

 

  • On Insurance vertical, the company mentioned that growth has improved in this vertical due to continued deal momentum, addition of new logos and also a leadership change in US market and it is expected to keep growth momentum continue ahead. On manufacturing, the company mentioned that it will continue to grow double digit on YoY basis going ahead well as one of large deals it won in this quarter is from this vertical

 

  • The company indicated that Others vertical is growing strong on account of ramp up from a marquee client & the client would become a US$ 50 mn+ client very soon

 

  • The company added net employees of 4,510 taking the total headcount to 53,276 employees. It indicated that attrition is expected to moderate in H2, however attrition for certain niche skills continue to be high and it will come down in the coming quarters which will eventually help in moderation of overall attrition meaningfully.  LTI has maintained guidance of 6500 fresher additions in FY23, it added 1600 freshers in Q2 vs 1000 in Q1. The company also indicated that all its offices in India as open now and employees are working in staggered manner 2 to 3 days a week. The company’s new campus at Mahape in Navi Mumbai will likely to start operations in Q4FY23, it has a capacity of 8000 people.
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q2FY23   Q2FY23E   Q2FY22   YoY (%)  Q1FY23  QoQ (%)  Comments
 Revenue (US$ mn)               601              592              509 18.1              580 3.6 Revenue grew 4.6% in CC terms, cross currency impact of 100 bps
Revenue (| crore) 4,837 4,723 3,767 28.4 4,523 6.9 Revenue growth led by BFS, insurance vertical and Manufacturing while Hi-Tech saw a decline due to client specific issue 
Employee expenses 3,427 3,334 2,601 31.7 3,208 6.8  
               
Gross Margin 1,410 1,388 1,166 20.9 1,315 7.2  
Gross margin (%) 29.2 29.4 31.0 -180 bps 29.1 7 bps  
Other expenses 498 510 433 15.1 485 2.8  
               
EBITDA 912 878 733 24.3 831 9.7  
EBITDA Margin (%) 18.8 18.6 19.5 -61 bps 18.4 48 bps  
Depreciation & amort 131 113 85 53.9 107 22.8  
EBIT 781 765 648 20.5 724 7.8  
EBIT Margin (%) 16.1 16.2 17.2 -106 bps 16.0 13 bps Margin walk as follows : Headwinds - a) increase in employee costs -90 bps, b) utilisation down impact  -40 bps, tailwinds: Currency benefit +120bps and higher working day +20 bps
Other income 120 110 94 28.4 127 -5.0  
PBT 901 875 742 21.5 851 5.9  
Tax paid 222 223 190 16.4 217 2.3  
PAT 680 652 552 23.2 634 7.2  

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