loader2
Partner With Us NRI
Laurus Labs Ltd>
  • CMP : 420.2 Chg : -5.75 (-1.35%)
  • Target : 675.0 (25.23%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

28 Jul 2022

Custom synthesis buoyant; Changed-mix to persist…

About The Stock

Laurus Labs operates in the segment of generic APIs & FDFs (formulations), custom synthesis and biotechnology. Major focus in APIs is on ARV, oncology and other APIs.

  • It has 11 manufacturing units (six FDA approved sites) with 74 DMFs, 32 ANDAs filed (15 Para IV, 11 first to file) and 192 patents granted
  • Laurus acquired Richore Life Sciences to diversify in area of recombinant animal origin free products, enzymes as well as building biologics CDMO
Q1FY23

Beat on estimates propelled by synthesis (up 196% YoY).

  • Sales were up 20% YoY to ₹ 1539 crore, driven by CDMO-Synthesis & Bio business (contributing 39% to the top-line in Q1FY23)
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 454.2 crore, up 15% YoY with margins at 29.5%

Adjusted PAT was at ₹ 251 crore (up 4% YoY)

What should Investors do?

Laurus Lab’s share price has grown by ~7.9x over the past three years (from ~₹ 67.81 in July 2019 to ~₹ 539 levels in July 2022).

  • We continue to remain positive and retain our BUY rating on the stock amid incremental contribution from Synthesis with visible order-book.
Target Price Valuation

Valued at ₹ 675 i.e. 25x P/E on FY24E EPS of ₹ 27 

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Synthesis: Well-positioned to meet fast growing global demand for NCE drug substance and drug products with on-going supplies for seven commercial products. Setting-up dedicated R&D centre & three greenfield manufacturing units (FY24, FY25)
  • Formulations: Product launches in anti-diabetic (FY23) & CV portfolio (FY24) in US & Europe with target opportunity at ~ US$40 billion. Gradual traction from Unit-2 commissioned in Q1FY23 taking total capacity to 10 billion units
  • API: Robust order-book in anti-diabetic, CV & PPI amid capacity expansion in high growth therapeutics with total reactor volume of +7000KL by FY23
  • Biologics: Expanding the biologics CDMO at scale. Commercial scale-up of the new fermentation capacity (food proteins). Plans to add 1 million litre fermentation capacity in Phase 1
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from Laurus, in healthcare coverage we like Granules.

  • Granules India is a vertically integrated company that manufactures API, intermediates and finished dosages with vision to play on its strength of economies of scale and expansion into more complex products/forms

BUY with a target price of ₹ 345

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 3 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 2,291.9 2,831.7 4,813.5 4,935.7 21.0 6,622.2 8,112.4 28.2
EBITDA 356.0 561.0 1,550.7 1,422.4 30.7 1,929.7 2,454.3 31.4
EBITDA Margins (%) 15.5 19.8 32.2 28.8 - 29.1 30.3 -
Adj. Profit 93.8 255.3 983.6 827.5 39.7 1,113.9 1,448.3 32.3
Adj. EPS (|) 1.7 4.8 18.3 15.4 - 20.7 27.0 -
PE (x) 308.8 113.5 29.4 35.0 - 26.0 20.0 -
EV to EBITDA (x) 84.3 53.5 19.6 21.7 - 16.1 12.5 -
RoE (%) 6.0 14.4 37.9 24.7 - 25.6 25.6 -
RoCE (%) 7.7 13.0 31.7 21.3 - 23.6 26.0 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q1FY23 Results: CRAMS to the fore in Q3 with significant mix change

  • Laurus revenues grew 20% YoY to | 1539 crore in Q1FY23 on the back of 196% YoY growth in CRAMS to | 577 crore led by solid demand from new and existing clients. Formulations de-grew 33% YoY to | 349 crore as the higher generic volumes in developed markets was offset by pricing pressure and lower offtake for ARV business. APIs revenues increased 6% YoY to | 583 crore, due to de-stocking impact in base year for ARVs business was largely offset by other APIs. ARV APIs sales declined 8% YoY to | 379 crore while oncology API posted growth of 8% YoY to | 64 crore and other API grew 82% YoY to | 140 crore. Laurus bio segment grew 114% YoY to | 30 crore due to operationalisation of new capacities. EBITDA margins declined 141 bps YoY to 29.5% mainly due to higher other expenses amid adverse operating leverage being partly offset by higher gross margins (up 89 bps YoY to 57.6%). EBITDA grew 15% YoY to | 454 crore while adjusted PAT grew 4% YoY at | 251 crore for the quarter. Delta vis-à-vis EBITDA was on back of higher depreciation and tax expense along with lower other income.
  • Laurus Labs’s Q3 was a beat on revenues estimates, although heavily skewed towards CRAMS while margins were in-line. This quarter witnessed significant revenue mix change as, CRAMS (Synthesis+Bio) contributed 39% to the top-live v/s 28%/16% in Q4FY22/Q1FY22. Pricing pressure in ARV APIs and the Formulation business was significant in Q1FY23 and was fully offset by better margins from CRAMS. In formulations, Laurus is likely to take calibrated tendering approach to ensure better profitability while in APIs, ARV business has recovered sequentially and is expected to stabilise around current levels. Additional capacities, were commissioned in both APIs and Formulations during the quarter with expected gradual ramp up through FY23. Positive outlook backed by new project delivery, pipeline expansion and favourable market tailwinds in CRAMS has led to company targeting US$1 billion revenues in FY23. Laurus has multiple planned capacity expansions in portfolio based on complexity and scale towards strengthening and diversifying business by an increased focus on Non-ARV APIs and Formulations and high-growth CRAMS segments.

Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Q1FY23 witnessed continued raw material inflation while supply side issues are gradually improving as China opens up post-Covid shutdown
  • In APIs space, ARV APIs volumes and prices are expected to stabilise at current levels. Management has guided high order book visibility for non-ARV and non-Onco APIs.
  • In Formulations space, pricing environment remains depressed in ARVs. Utilization levels at new formulations facility is likely to pick-up by end of CY22. In ARVs volume offtake has not slowed down. Management guiding for pick-up in sales from Q2FY23.
  • ARVs contribution: 42% (API:25%, Formulatiosn:17%) of sales for Q1FY23. ARVs prices have decreased by 15% in Q1FY23 versus 10% till Q4FY22.
  • In Synthesis, there is no-offs in current quarter. Supplies for one global life science company is ongoing currently while for the another Multi-year – Multi-product contract with a global life science company is on fast-track with work on-going for dedicated facility and management guided for plant qualification by H2FY24. One NCE validation ongoing at current site. Laurus has 7 commercial products (3 APIs and 4 intermediates).
  • Laurus Bio’s new 1 million litre capacity contribution can be expected from FY25. Management guided for flat FY24 amid capacity constraints.
  • Capex guidance for FY23 and FY24 at | 2,000 crore (50%: Sytnesis, Rest all is for Non ARV (APIs:66% + Formulations:33%)).
Variance Analysis
 
  Q1FY23 Q1FY23E Q1FY22 YoY (%) Q4FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 1,538.9 1,454.8 1,278.5 20.4 1,424.8 8.0   YoY growth driven by CDMO-Synthesis business
Raw Material Expenses 653.0 683.8 553.8 17.9 683.3 -4.4    
Gross margins (%) 57.6 53.0 56.7 88.9 52.0 552.5   YoY increase amid better mix towards CDMO offsetting depressed pricing in ARV business
Employee Expenses 152.0 130.9 127.3 19.4 129.4 17.5    
Other Expenditure 279.8 214.6 202.0 38.5 215.5 29.8    
EBITDA 454.2 425.5 395.4 14.9 396.7 14.5    
EBITDA (%) 29.5 29.3 30.9 -141.1 27.8 166.9   YoY decline mainly due to higher other expenses and adverse operating leverage in formulations business 
Interest 29.3 29.6 26.6 9.9 30.6 -4.3    
Depreciation 70.8 80.7 58.5 20.9 65.7 7.7    
Other Income 1.8 7.3 5.9 -70.1 1.3 35.7    
PBT before EO & Forex 355.9 322.5 316.1 12.6 301.7 18.0    
Forex & EO 0.0 0.0 0.0   0.0      
PBT 355.9 322.5 316.1 12.6 301.7 18.0    
Tax  103.3 72.6 74.4 38.8 69.8 48.0   YoY increase due to the change in SEZ profits exemption to 50% from FY23 for a period of 5 years
PAT before MI 252.5 249.9 241.6 4.5 231.9 8.9    
MI 1.0 1.3 0.2   1.2      
Net Profit 251.3 248.6 241.4 4.1 230.5 9.0   Delta vis-à-vis EBITDA on back of higher depreciation and tax expense along with lower other income
Key Metrics                
Anti-Viral API 379.0 310.0 413.3 -8.3 296.5 27.8    
Oncology API 64.1 76.9 59.2 8.4 70.1 -8.5    
Other APIs 139.9 146.2 77.0 81.8 172.5 -18.9    
API 583.0 533.1 549.4 6.1 539.0 8.2   YoY gradual recovery in APIs as ARV business continued to witness healthy sequential improvement
Formulations 349.0 521.0 521.0 -33.0 491.0 -28.9   YoY decline due to drag by lower ARV business while higher generic volumes in developed markets was offset by pricing pressure
CRAMS 577.0 360.8 195.0 195.9 360.0 60.3   YoY growth led by solid demand from new and existing clients 
Laurus Bio 30.0 40.0 14.0 114.3 35.0 -14.3   YoY increase as fully operational benefits of new capacities to reflect through FY23

Terms & conditions and other disclosures

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Siddhant Khandekar, Inter CA, Raunak Thakur, PGDM, Kush Mehta, CA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.

ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.

 

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.

 

Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stocks price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a companys fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports.

 

Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.

 

ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Institutional Research.

 

The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances.

 

This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months.

 

 

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report.

 

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.

 

ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report.

 

Since associates of ICICI Securities and ICICI Securities as a entity are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or actual/ beneficial ownership of one percent or more or other material conflict of interest various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.

 

ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.

 

Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report.

 

We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities.

 

This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

 

 

Read More