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Laurus Labs Ltd>
  • CMP : 425.9 Chg : -5.50 (-1.27%)
  • Target : 690.0 (46.81%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

28 Jun 2022

Top pick in pharma coverage universe

About The Stock

Laurus Labs operates in the segment of generic APIs & FDFs (formulations), custom synthesis and biotechnology. Major focus in APIs is on ARV, oncology and other APIs.

  • It has 11 manufacturing units (six FDA approved sites) with 73 DMFs, 31 ANDAs filed (15 Para IV, 10 first to file) and 184 patents granted
  • Laurus acquired Richore Life Sciences to diversify in area of recombinant animal origin free products, enzymes as well as building biologics CDMO
Fundamental Strength

In the near to medium term, Laurus plans to 1) diversify into Non-ARV APIs and formulations, 2) scale up synthesis business and 3) leverage Richore acquisition to tap into new area of biologics. Laurus has multiple planned capacity expansions in portfolio based on complexity and scale and has set an aspirational target of US$1 billion revenues in FY23.

What should Investors do?

We retain BUY rating and value Laurus at ₹ 690 i.e. 26x P/E on FY24E EPS of ₹ 26.5.

Narrative favours CRAMS, branded domestic; calculated approach for US…

After a buoyant FY21 (Covid induced), the pharmaceutical sector witnessed a mixed FY22 amid three overarching themes- 1) contraction of Covid led opportunities, 2) industry specific structural issues such as, a) US price erosion, b) significant inventory de-stocking, and 3) adverse global macro deflators like, a) higher input, freight and power cost and b) supply chain challenges due to Covid and geo-political issues from H2FY22. Structural stories in pharmaceutical space like CRAMS and branded domestic formulations continue to deliver on their earning potential. We also draw comfort from companies with a diversified geographical presence in the branded space and select players in the US with portfolios of complex nature (specialty, biosimilars, injectable and complex generics with limited competition).

 

The pharma CRAMs story continued to unfold on capex-driven opportunities in FY22 while the pandemic driven windfall gains further added to the already strong prints of most CRAMs players. Aggressive capex drives based on ‘’China-plus One’’ theme is now coming to the fore as the post-Covid scenario further strengthens the argument in favour of outsourcing with incremental order wins and client additions. Aggregated financial performances of the I-direct pharma CRAMs universe reflect the improved trajectory, which is likely to persist as companies prepare for the next capex cycle.

 

US oral solid dosages (OSD) Generics witnessed intense price erosion in FY22, affecting both revenues and margins of pharma companies with higher mix for US generics. Nonetheless, we expect better prospects for the US as a whole from H2FY23 onwards due to 1) moderation in OSD pricing pressure on back of exits due to product unviability 2) optical focus on more complex products (injectables, oncology, respiratory, biosimilars), which may shift bargaining power towards manufacturers and 3) decongestion of pending approvals pipeline as the USFDA and product inspection momentum which can go back to pre-pandemic level.

 

Domestic formulations business continues to remain main lever for growth during both tough as well as normal times. During lockdowns and limited MR activities/patients footfalls in clinics, most companies shifted focus to Covid related opportunities. As the situation started to normalise, the focus was back on normal activities via digital drives, new products introduction, etc. Many companies, including market leader Sun, have augmented MR recruitment drive to focus on untapped therapy areas.

 

Considering structural advantage for CRAMS, steady growth rate of domestic branded generics besides calibrated US approach, we have earmarked top picks – Divi’s Lab (BUY rating; target price: 4,655), Laurus Labs (BUY rating; target price: 690), Sun Pharma (BUY rating; target price: 1,070) and Cipla (BUY rating; target price: 1,095).

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 2,291.9 2,831.7 4,813.5 4,935.7 21.0 6,439.4 7,750.4 25.3
EBITDA 356.0 561.0 1,550.7 1,422.4 30.7 1,846.2 2,327.4 27.9
EBITDA Margins (%) 15.5 19.8 32.2 28.8 - 28.7 30.0 -
Adj. Profit 93.8 255.3 983.6 827.5 39.7 1,107.7 1,426.0 31.3
Adj. EPS (|) 1.7 4.8 18.3 15.4 - 20.6 26.5 -
PE (x) 269.3 98.9 25.7 30.5 - 22.8 17.7 -
EV to EBITDA (x) 73.8 46.9 17.2 19.0 - 14.8 11.6 -
RoE (%) 6.0 14.4 37.9 24.7 - 25.5 25.3 -
RoCE (%) 7.7 13.0 31.7 21.3 - 22.6 24.7 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

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