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  • CMP : 1,004.9 Chg : -7.40 (-0.73%)
  • Target : 690.0 (18.15%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

02 May 2022

Custom synthesis hogs limelight; outlook robust…

About The Stock

Laurus Labs operates in the segment of generic APIs & FDFs (formulations), custom synthesis and biotechnology. Major focus in APIs is on ARV, oncology and other APIs.

  • It has 11 manufacturing units (six FDA approved sites) with 73 DMFs, 31 ANDAs filed (15 Para IV, 10 first to file) and 184 patents granted
  • Laurus acquired Richore Life Sciences to diversify in area of recombinant animal origin free products, enzymes as well as building biologics CDMO
Q4FY22

Significant beat propelled by synthesis and formulations.

  • Sales were up 1% YoY to ₹ 1425 crore, which were optically muted due to ARVs destocking impact during the year and a high base of Q4FY21
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 397 crore, down 16% YoY with margins at 27.8%
  • Adjusted PAT was at ₹ 230.5 crore (down 22% YoY)
What should Investors do?

Laurus Lab’s share price has grown by ~7.6x over the past three years (from ~₹ 77 in April 2019 to ~₹ 584 levels in April 2022).

  • We continue to remain positive and retain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price Valuation

Valued at ₹ 690 i.e. 26x P/E on FY24E EPS of ₹ 26.5

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Synthesis: Well-positioned to meet fast growing global demand for NCE drug substance and drug products. Setting-up dedicated R&D centre (operational FY23) & three greenfield manufacturing units (FY24, FY25)
  • Formulations: Product launches in anti-diabetic (FY23) & CV portfolio (FY24) in US & Europe with market opportunity at ~ US$45 billion. Brownfield expansion (Unit-2) by Q1FY23 taking total capacity to 10 billion units
  • API: Robust order-book in anti-diabetic, CV & PPI amid capacity expansion in high growth therapeutics with total reactor volume of +7000KL by FY23
  • Biologics: Expanding the biologics CDMO at scale. Commercial scale-up of the new fermentation capacity (food proteins). Plans to add 1 million litre fermentation capacity in Phase 1
  • Laurus is evolving as a strong vertically integrated player with strong order book visibility and incremental traction from custom synthesis
New Stock Ideas

Apart from Laurus, in healthcare coverage we like Granules.

  • Granules India is a vertically integrated company that manufactures API, intermediates and finished dosages with vision to play on its strength of economies of scale and expansion into more complex products/forms
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 360

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 2,291.9 2,831.7 4,813.5 4,935.7 21.0 6,439.4 7,750.4 25.3
EBITDA 356.0 561.0 1,550.7 1,422.4 30.7 1,846.2 2,327.4 27.9
EBITDA Margins (%) 15.5 19.8 32.2 28.8 - 28.7 30.0 -
Adj. Profit 93.8 255.3 983.6 827.5 39.7 1,107.7 1,426.0 31.3
Adj. EPS (|) 1.7 4.8 18.3 15.4 - 20.6 26.5 -
PE (x) 334.4 122.9 31.9 37.9 - 28.3 22.0 -
EV to EBITDA (x) 91.0 57.8 21.1 23.3 - 18.1 14.2 -
RoE (%) 6.0 14.4 37.9 24.7 - 25.5 25.3 -
RoCE (%) 7.7 13.0 31.7 21.3 - 22.6 24.7 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q4FY22 Results: CRAMS growth continues amid GPM pressure

  • Laurus revenues grew 1% YoY to | 1425 crore in Q4FY22 on the back of 105% YoY growth in CRAMS to | 360 crore amid progress in existing projects and supplies for order secured with global life science company. Formulations grew 14% YoY to | 491 crore due to market share gain in developed market and stabilisation in ARVs. APIs revenues declined 32% YoY to | 539 crore, mainly due to de-stocking impact in base year for ARVs business. ARV APIs sales declined 48% YoY to | 297 crore while oncology API posted growth of 13% YoY to | 70 crore and other API grew 4% YoY to | 173 crore. Laurus bio segment grew 9% YoY to | 35 crore due to operationalisation of new capacities. EBITDA margins declined 560 bps YoY to 28% mainly due to lower gross margins (down 349 bps YoY to 52%) and higher employee cost. EBITDA de-grew 16% YoY to | 397 crore while adjusted PAT was down 22% YoY at | 231 crore for the quarter. Delta vis-à-vis EBITDA on back of higher depreciation and interest cost along with lower other income being partially offset by lower tax expense
  • Revenue growth appears optically muted, which is largely due to ARVs de-stocking impact during the year. CRAMS and formulations were significant beat on our estimates while EBITDA margins were better than estimated 26.5% due to better mix offsetting negative operating leverage. ARV business in both APIs and formulations witnessed improving offtake sequentially. Positive outlook backed by new project delivery, pipeline expansion and favourable market tailwinds in CRAMS has led to company targeting 25% revenues from Synthesis by FY25. Laurus has multiple planned capacity expansions in portfolio based on complexity and scale and has set an aspirational target of US$1 billion revenues in FY23

 

Q4FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Q4FY22 witnessed supply side issues for API solvents and raw materials while logistics challenges worsened due to geo-political issues and Covid
  • ARV APIs and formulations prices were down ~ 10% in FY22. The management guided this to be the new base
  • ARVs contribution (both API and formulations) was at ~ 55% of revenues for FY22. The company is expected to maintain revenue mix in FY23
  • Laurus API facility is operating at optimum capacity. Capacity increased by 25% in FY22 while total reactor volume of +7000 KL is expected to be reached by the end of FY23. The management is anticipating good growth in other API segment in FY23 supported by new contract supplies
  • In Synthesis, capex on multi-year contract (signed in Q2) is on fast-track. Laurus has four commercial stage projects and 550KL+ dedicated capacity. The company has also indicated at four big pharma clients amid customer base diversification
  • Laurus Bio’s new 1 million litre capacity will be commercialised in FY24 and is earmarked for food proteins. The management plans to enter therapeutic proteins from FY25
  • R&D US/EU Pipeline: 14 approved with ~ 40% in Non-ARV while 70% of pending/developing 62 filings are under non-ARV space. R&D spend for FY22 was at | 202 crore (4% of sales)
  • US ANDA filings: Total – 31, Para IV – 15 and FTF – 10. Additionally, 11 filings in EU and 17 in Canada
  • Capex guidance for FY23 and FY24 at | 2,000-2,500 crore
Variance Analysis

  Q4FY22 Q4FY22E Q4FY21 YoY (%) Q3FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 1,424.8 1,231.8 1,411.9 0.9 1,028.8 38.5   YoY optically muted due to ARVs de-stocking in base while CRAMS and formulations were significant beat on our estimates
Raw Material Expenses 683.3 517.4 627.8 8.8 424.0 61.1    
Gross margins (%) 52.0 58.0 55.5 -349.3 58.8 -673.7   YoY decline amid Inflationary input cost and ~ 10% price erosion in ARVs
Employee Expenses 129.4 146.1 113.8 13.7 122.0 6.1    
Other Expenditure 215.5 242.0 198.2 8.7 197.5 9.1    
EBITDA 396.7 326.3 472.2 -16.0 285.3 39.1    
EBITDA (%) 27.8 26.5 33.4 -560.0 27.7 11.1   YoY decline mainly due to lower gross margins and higher employee cost
Interest 30.6 23.1 21.9 39.4 23.1 32.3    
Depreciation 65.7 61.8 53.6 22.6 64.0 2.7    
Other Income 1.3 6.4 4.5 -71.5 5.3 -75.8    
PBT before EO & Forex 301.7 247.8 401.2 -24.8 203.5 48.3    
Forex & EO 0.0 0.0 0.0   0.0      
PBT 301.7 247.8 401.2 -24.8 203.5 48.3    
Tax  69.8 55.8 104.3 -33.0 48.5 43.8    
PAT before MI 231.9 192.1 296.9 -21.9 155.0 49.6    
MI 1.2 1.0 0.2   1.2      
Net Profit 230.5 191.1 296.7 -22.3 153.7 49.9   Delta vis-à-vis EBITDA on back of higher depreciation and interest cost along with lower other income being partially offset by lower tax expense.
Key Metrics                
Anti-Viral API 296.5 284.5 569.0 -47.9 203.5 45.7    
Oncology API 70.1 83.7 62.0 13.0 84.8 -17.4    
Other APIs 172.5 166.0 166.0 3.9 135.7 27.1    
API 539.0 534.2 797.0 -32.4 424.0 27.1   YoY decline mainly due to de-stocking impact in base year for ARVs business
Formulations 491.0 430.0 430.0 14.2 373.0 31.6   YoY growth on back of market share gain in developed market and stabilization in ARVs
CRAMS 360.0 237.6 176.0 104.5 207.0 73.9   YoY growth led by progress in existing projects and supplies for order secured with Global life science company

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