loader2
Login Open ICICI 3-in-1 Account
  • CMP : 4,074.1 Chg : 70.20 (1.75%)
  • Target : 1,930.0 (25.98%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

13 May 2022

Strong order inflow with decent guidance

Larsen & Toubro (L&T) India’s largest engineering & construction(E&C) company with interest in EPC projects, Hi-tech manufacturing and services.

  • It primarily operates in Infrastructure, Heavy Engineering, Defence engineering, Power, Hydrocarbon, Services business segments.
  • Infrastructure segment contributes ~45% to consolidated revenue followed services (~30%).

L&T reported good Q4FY22 results.

  • Adjusted standalone revenue was up 10.9% YoY to ₹ 32989.2 crore
  • Standalone EBITDA up 7.8% YoY to ₹ 3869.6 crore, margins dipped 173 bps to 10.3% on a YoY basis.
  • Consequently, standalone adjusted PAT at ₹ 2901.2 crore (up 17.6% YoY)
  • Order inflows came in at ₹ 73,900 crore, up 46% YoY

L&T’s strong order book of ₹ 357600 crore suggest good revenue visibility in coming years.

  • We maintain our BUY rating on the stock

We value L&T at ₹ 1930 on SoTP basis

 

  •  L&T has targeted revenues and order inflow CAGR of 15% and 14%, respectively, over FY21-26 with a consolidated ROE of 18%
  •  L&T will focus on emerging portfolios like Green EPC, Manufacturing of electrolysers, Battery & Cell manufacturing, Data Centres and Platforms (Sufin & Edutech) in next five years
  •  Focus on asset monetisation to further strengthen the balance sheet and improve return ratios. Strong b/s, controlled working capital and strong cash generation

Apart from L&T, in our coverage we also like Siemens Ltd. Further penetration of valued added automation and digitization products &
services across segments to drive margins, long term growth.

  • BUY with target price of ₹ 2856

Key Financial Summary

(| Crore) FY19 FY20 FY21 5 year CAGR (FY16-21) FY22 FY23E FY24E 3 year CAGR (FY21-24E)
Net Sales 1,664.4 1,617.8 1,410.5 6.1 2,203.2 2,609.2 3,013.3 28.8
EBITDA 288.6 363.3 251.8 9.2 510.6 613.2 708.1 41.2
EBITDA margin (%) 17.3 22.5 17.9 - 23.2 23.5 23.5 -
Net Profit 148.6 246.1 143.2 9.3 327.1 412.0 469.8 48.6
EPS (|) 19.8 32.7 19.0 - 43.5 54.8 62.5 -
P/E (x) 117.5 70.9 121.9 - 53.4 42.4 37.2 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 60.5 47.0 69.0 - 34.1 28.4 24.6 -
RoCE (%) 15.7 18.6 13.7 - 25.3 32.3 36.9 -
RoE (%) 11.1 15.6 10.7 - 19.7 24.9 28.4 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Q4FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights
 L&T total ordering prospects/pipeline for FY23E stands at | 853000 crore, which comprises of | 631000 crore of domestic and | 220000 crore of international pipeline. L&T has become more selective in choosing business opportunities coupled with a strong backlog gives convenience to the company to use discretion for winning relatively profitable orders. From a segment perspective, Infrastructure segment prospects are pegged at |572000 crore (Water 21%, T&D 23%, Transportation 19%, B&F 16% and Metals 4%).
 The management commentary suggests that tendering activity was quite robust in Q3FY22 but the same did not get converted into order finalisations and award. This was quite evident from the Award to Tendering ratio which stood at 48% in Q3FY22 vs. 61% in Q3FY21. Improvement in this particular ratio in Q4Y22 and ramp up in spending by PSU and States for their respective capex might lead to strong order inflows for L&T in Q4FY22E.
 L&T has given a guidance of 12-15% revenues and order inflow growth for FY23E. The margins guidance has been pegged at 9.5% given the volatile commodity outlook. On the working capital to sales ratio the company has guided for a range of 20-22% even though company will strive to achieve the lower end of the guidance.
 In terms of client exposure, central government forms 11% of the domestic backlog while the share of state governments, PSU and private sector stands at 29%, 45% and 16% respectively. Out of the total backlog of | 357600 crore, 30% of the same is funded by multilateral agencies. In terms of ordering, inflows and order finalisations are happening at brisk pace from Central government and PSU’s/State owned enterprises but the same is lagging behind from the state governments. 

Share of fixed price contracts in the current backlog stands at 15% while those with price variation clause share is at 85%.
 The net working to capital ratio significantly improved from 23.2% in Q3VY22 and 22.2% in Q4FY21 to 19.9%. The company has generated strong cash flow from operations in FY22 to the tune of | 15000 crore. Also from a leverage perspective, standalone entity has very low debt while the debt for concessions portfolio is down by |2100 crore and standalone entity is down by |4300 crore in FY22.
 On the labour front, the company has gradually ramped-up to 263000 labourers leading to near normal requirement in FY22.
 Developments at Hyderabad Metro: Hyderabad Metro is witnessing resurgence in ridership with daily ridership at over 300000 passengers in Q1FY23, which had suffered in Q4FY22 (199000 riders per day) on account of Omicron. Hence the average ridership on per day basis for FY22 stood at 155000. The subsidiary for the posted a positive EBITDA 2.4% EBIDTA. But on account of higher interest cost and depreciation, the loss for Q4FY22 was at |349 crore. Total loss for FY22 stood at |1700 crore.

The refinancing of the L&T Hyderabad metro happened on Dec 2021 wherein the bank debt of |13000 crore has been completely refinanced with NCD/commercial paper. The savings in interest costs was to the tune of |90 in Q4YF22.
 Telangana government has provided financial assistance in form of a soft loan of |3000 crore (|1000 crore instalment every year from FY23) and the same has to repaid after 65 years at a very concessional rate of interest.
 The Invit of Hyderabad metro has also received the approvals from respective regulatory bodies. The company is also in active talks with investors to dilute stake in the Hyderabad metro with which further debt reduction will happen. We believe, the company is on the right track in de-risking the entire project in the medium term.
 Other Developmental Projects: The company will shorty sell out the remaining 51% in L&T IDPL (Road Assets) and also in active talks to hive off power subsidiary Nabha power. This exits are likely to happen on FY23.

Five-year plan: Lakshya 2026: The company will focus on emerging portfolios like Green EPC, Manufacturing of electrolysers, Battery & Cell manufacturing, Data Centres and Platforms (Sufin & Edutech). The company has targeted revenues and order inflow CAGR of 15% and 14% respectively over FY21-FY26 with a consolidated ROE of 18%
 On the capex side, the company intends to put a 500 MW electrolyser manufacturing capacity by FY26 and scale it upto 1000 MW by FY28 at total outlay of | 1000-1100 crores. Which will be funded by internal accruals. On the battery cell manufacturing side, the company intends to put up a 5000 MW capacity by FY2028. The company can also enter the BOO route in green hydrogen given its gets the desired levels of IRR and take & pay agreements with the partner.
 Growth in IT segment will happen via inorganic route and the same will be funded via balance sheets of the IT subsidiary themselves.

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
I/We, Chirag Shah, PGDBM and Ameya Mahurkar, MFM (Master in Financial Management) Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report
Terms & conditions and other disclosures:
ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.
ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.
ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.
Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stocks price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a companys fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports.
Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.
ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Institutional Research.
The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. Whil

While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances.
This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.
ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.
ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.
ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months. 

We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities.
This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

Read More