loader2
Login Open ICICI 3-in-1 Account
  • CMP : 4,074.1 Chg : 70.20 (1.75%)
  • Target : 2,795.0 (31.72%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

31 Jan 2023

Q3FY23 Result Update

About The Stock

Larsen & Toubro (L&T) is India’s largest engineering & construction (E&C) company, with interest in EPC projects, hi-tech manufacturing and services.

  • The company primarily operates in infrastructure, heavy engineering, defence engineering, power, hydrocarbon, services business segments
  • Infrastructure segment contributes ~45% to consolidated revenue followed by services (~30%)
Q3FY23

 L&T reported a decent set of Q3FY23 numbers.

  • Adjusted standalone revenue was up 8.3% YoY to ₹ 27785.4 crore
  • Standalone EBITDA was up 10.3% YoY to ₹ 2316.9 crore. Margins remains flat to 8.3% on a YoY basis
  • Consequently, standalone adjusted PAT at ₹ 1825.4 crore remains flat YoY
  • Order inflows came at ₹ 60,710 crore, up 21% YoY
What should Investors do?

L&T reported a strong order book of ₹ 372381 crore, suggesting good revenue visibility in coming years.

  • We maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value L&T at ₹ 2795 on an SoTP basis.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • L&T has targeted revenues and order inflow CAGR of 15% and 14%, respectively, over FY21-26 with a consolidated RoE of 18%
  • L&T will focus on emerging portfolios like green EPC, manufacturing of electrolysers, battery & cell manufacturing, data centres and platforms (Sufin & Edutech) in the next five years
  • Focus on asset monetisation to further strengthen the balance sheet and improve return ratios. Strong b/s, controlled working capital and strong cash generation         
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from L&T, in our coverage we also like Siemens.

  • Strong focus on technology leadership in digitisation and automation products to further strengthen its market share

 

  • BUY with target price of ₹ 3630

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR % (FY18-FY23E) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 Year CAGR % (FY21-FY24E)
Net Sales 82,383.6 73,315.6 101,000.4 9.3 116,406.3 133,149.5 153,827.6 15.0
EBITDA 6,838.2 7,266.2 9,055.5 - 9,352.2 12,023.9 14,353.9 23.9
RoCE (%) 11.1 11.5 13.0 - 13.3 15.0 16.5 -
RoE (%) 10.7 10.4 11.7 - 11.8 13.4 14.6 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Q3FY23 Results: Strong order inflows with decent execution

  Q3FY23 Q2FY23E Q3FY22 YoY (Chg %) Q2FY23 QoQ (Chg %)   Comments
Revenue 27,785.4 29,226.7 25,665.1 8.3 25,769.8 7.8   Infrastructure business drive revenue growth
Other Income 833.0 1,000.1 924.0 -9.8 1,554.2 -46.4    
Employee Expenses 2,014.8   1,877.8 7.3 2,109.7 -4.5    
Raw Material Expenses 22,746.3   20,952.2 8.6 21,213.1 -40.3    
Other Operating Expenses 707.5   735.4 -3.8 539.3 31.2    
EBITDA 2,316.9 2,425.8 2,099.8 10.3 1,907.6 21.5    
EBITDA Margin (%) 8.3 8.3 8.2 16 bps 7.4 94 bps    
Depreciation 334.8 317.6 287.0 16.6 337.6 -0.8    
Interest 508.1 436.2 414.7 22.5 578.6 -12.2    
PBT (befor exp. Item) 2,306.9 2,672.1 2,322.1 -0.7 2,545.6 -9.4    
PBT (after exp. Item) 2,306.9 2,672.1 2,322.1 - 2,545.6 -    
Total Tax 481.5 639.9 498.9 -3.5 436.1 10.4    
Adj. PAT (Ex-E&A) 1,825.4 2,032.2 1,823.2 0.1 2,109.5 -13.6    
Key Metrics                
Order inflows 60,710   50,359 20.6 51,914 16.9   Decent order inflows seen YoY
Order backlog 3,86,588   3,40,000 13.7 3,72,381 3.8   Backlog provides strong visibility for next two to three years
* Adjusted for E&A                

 

Q3FY23 Results: Strong order inflows with decent execution

  • L&T’s adjusted standalone revenues (Ex- E&A) for the quarter grew by 8.3% YoY to | 27785.4 crore (vs. our estimate of | 29226.7 crore). On standalone basis, Infrastructure segment revenue grew by 13.8% to | 20294 crore on YoY basis driven by a smooth execution of a large order book. Energy segment revenue came at | 4928.2 crores de-grew by 9.7% YoY basis. Hi-Tech manufacturing segment posted revenue of | 1863.1 crores and grew by 20.3% YoY basis with accelerated progress in few jobs. Others segment reported a growth of 6.3% YoY to |1078.7 crores, primarily due to lower pace of execution in the SWC business.

 

  • Standalone EBITDA was up by 10.3% YoY to | 2316.9 crore with margins remains flat to 8.3% on a YoY basis (In Q2FY23 it was 7.4%). On a consolidated basis, EBITDA margins came at 10.9%.

 

  • For Q3FY23, L&T registered strong order inflows at group level worth | 60710 crore, which grew by 21% YoY. orders were received across multiple segments like Oil & Gas, Public Spaces, Hydel & Tunnels, Irrigation systems, Ferrous Metals and Power Transmission & Distribution. International orders at 15,294 crores during the quarter comprised 25% of the total order inflow. Overall infrastructure segment secured orders worth | 32,530 crore (~53.5% of total inflows). L&T’s order backlog as on Q3FY23 stood at | 3,86,588 crore with international orders contributing 26%.

 

  • Consequently, for Q3FY23, standalone adjusted PAT (Ex-E&A) came in at | 1825.4 crore, flat on YoY (Vs. our estimates of | 2032.2 crore). Other income came in at | 833 crore de-grew by 9.8% on YoY while, interest expense increased by 22.5% to | 508 crore. The consolidated Adj. PAT for Q3FY23 came in at | 2553 crore (Vs | 2054.7 crore in Q3FY22)

 

  • From a balance sheet perspective, net working capital to sales ratio improved to 19% in 9MFY23 from 22.9% in 9MFY22.

 

Q3FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • L&T’s total ordering prospects/pipeline for Q4FY23 is at | 487000 crore, comprising | 382000 crore of domestic and | 105000 crore of international pipeline. L&T has become more selective in choosing business opportunities coupled with a strong backlog giving convenience to the company to use discretion in winning relatively profitable orders. The prospect pipeline is quite robust given Q4FY23 opportunity pie of |487000 crore is still 50% of opportunity pie at the beginning of FY23E. From a segment perspective, Infrastructure segment prospects are pegged at | 3,89,000 crore, out of which | 320000 crore pertains to the domestic segment. On the Hydrocarbon prospects are at | 61,000 crore, while on Power | 23,000 crores and for the Hi tech manufacturing side (defence and heavy engineering), the same is at | 17,000 crore. Healthy award to tender ratio for 9MFY23 at 52% vs 48% in Q3FY22. The same ratio for Q3FY23 stood at 56% in Q3FY23 vs. 57% in Q3FY22.  The win ratio for L&T has improved from 15-16% in FY22 to 20% in FY23. In the private sector capex, the market share of L&T’s win-ability ratio has improved from 32% in 9MFY23 from 18% in 9MFY22. 

 

  • In Q3FY23, domestic order inflows grew by 53% YoY to | 42500 crore while for 9MFY23, the same grew by 54% YoY. With respect to international markets, ordering was flat to negative as most of the tenders faced delayed in ordering have spilled over to Q4FY23E but at the same time management reiterated the fact that GCC countries have robust prospects. International orders contributed to 26% of the order backlog.  Domestic backlog stood at 72% of the overall book while Middle east share was at 21%.
  • During the quarter, orders were received across segments such as Oil & Gas, Public Spaces, Hydel & Tunnels, Irrigation systems, Ferrous Metals and Power T&D. L&T is witnessing green shoots in private capex as new investments announced by private sector at an all-time high and sees 10-15% of share in orders prospects for Q4FY23. Also GCC (The Gulf Cooperation Council) countries are doing strong capex in both Oil & Non-Oil (Renewables, Green Hydrogen, Water etc) segments.

 

  • The management is confident of achieving and exceeding its revenue and order inflow growth guidance of 15% for FY23E. But on EBITDA margin guidance, L&T has slashed 30-50bps for FY23E at ~8.8%-9.0% given low margins reported in the first 6 months for fiscal year on account of fixed price orders taken before the commodity hike came into execution. On the working capital to sales ratio, L&T had guided for a range of 20-22% in the beginning of FY23 but now the company is quite confident of ending at 19-20% of given pick up in execution and normalisations of debtor’s/collection cycle. For net working capital to sales ratio improved to 19% in 9MFY23 from 22.9% in 9MFY22, improvement of 390 bps YoY.

 

  • Developments at Hyderabad Metro: Hyderabad Metro is witnessing a resurgence in ridership with daily ridership at over 394000 passengers in Q3FY23 (vs. 355000 passengers in Q2FY23). It touched a peak of 471000 passengers in January 2023. The management is hopeful that the ridership will touch the 550000-600000 mark in the next six quarters as there are no Covid restrictions. The subsidiary posted a positive EBITDA. The loss for Q3FY23 was at | 330 crore vs. | 480 crore in Q3FY22. L&T has refinanced the debt undertaken for the development of Hyderabad Metro leading to a favourable interest rate outgo and is planning monetisation of the real estate space of the metro network (| 1500 crore p.a. for next 2-3 years) and seeking government grants to be able to lower the debt burden, which is currently at ~| 13,000 crore. In Q2-Q3FY23, the company has received |100 crore soft loan assistance from Telengana government while in Q4FY23E they are expected to receive |900 crore of remaining soft loan for 1st year. In terms.

 

  • The company has incurred a capex of |2500 crore for procurement of construction equipment in 9MFY23, given they have bagged too many mega projects over the last few quarters and in also a lead indication that execution will remain strong and robust tendering activity will convert into business opportunity over the next 1-3 years.

 

  • On the green hydrogen, the company has invested |35 crore in a pilot project. Now the focus will be to tie up with a technology partner by Q1FY24 and put a manufacturing plant in FY24 with a capex of |1500 crore (L&T’s share) and the manufacturing will commence over FY25-FY26E.

 

  • From a balance sheet perspective, total debt on the standalone business and development assets stood at | 21300 crore flat YoY and |18400 crore, up by |300 crore. From a cash flow perspective, the company generated cash flow from operations to the tune of |5370 crore while the free cash flow for Q3FY23 stood at | 4000 crore. For 9MFY23, L&T generated FCF of | 5570 crore.

 

  • As part of its five-year strategic plan ‘Lakshya 26’ the company is looking to divest its investment in non-core areas, which includes road concessions and power business and minimising its stake in Hyderabad Metro. During the quarter, the company has entered into a share purchase agreement, to sell its entire shareholding in L&T IDPL. Under the strategic plan, the company plans to focus on green energy, cell and battery manufacturing, the development of data centres, tech education, and B2B e-commerce in the coming years

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Chirag Shah, PGDBM and Ameya Mahurkar, MFM (Master in Financial Management) Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.

ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.

 

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.

 

Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stocks price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a companys fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports.

 

Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.

 

ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Institutional Research.

 

The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances.

 

This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months.

 

 

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report.

 

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.

 

ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report.

 

Since associates of ICICI Securities and ICICI Securities as a entity are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or actual/ beneficial ownership of one percent or more or other material conflict of interest various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.

 

ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.

 

Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report.

 

We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities.

 

This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

 

 

 

Read More