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  • CMP : 6,269.5 Chg : -15.0 (-0.24%)
  • Target : 4,480.0 (12.70%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

16 Jul 2022

Strong growth in CY22…

About The Stock

Larsen & Toubro Infotech (LTI) offers application development, IMS, digital solution services to BFSI, retail, health, media & hi-tech verticals.

  • LTI has 71 Fortune-500 clients with a presence in North America & Europe
  • LTI has grown at 19% CAGR over FY17-22 with robust margins (>19%)
Q1FY23 Results

LTI reported a seasonally weak performance.

  • Constant currency revenues increased 2.9% QoQ
  • EBIT margin contracted 130 bps QoQ to 16.0%
  • The company won four large deals of US$79 mn TCV
What should Investors do?

LTI’s share price has grown by ~5x over the past five years (from ~₹ 780 in July 2017 to ~₹ 3,975 levels in July 2022).

  • We maintain HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value LTI at ₹ 4480 i.e. 27x FY24E EPS

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Growth is expected to pick up from Q2 onwards
  • Margin is likely to expand as wage hike impact is behind
  • Deal momentum continues to be strong as the company signed four large new deals worth US$79 Million (mn) and added four Fortune 500 clients
  • Vendor consolidation opportunity and digital acceleration. We expect LTI to register 16.1% CAGR revenue growth in FY22-24E
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from LTI, in our coverage we like Infosys.

  • Strong revenue guidance of 13-15% in CC terms for FY23, prompts us to be positive on the stock. However, there would be pressure in the near term on margins
  • We have a BUY rating with a target price of ₹ 1745

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 9,445.8 10,878.6 12,369.8 15,668.7 19.2 18,806.5 21,120.8 16.1
EBITDA 1,883.4 2,029.4 2,725.1 3,058.4 20.0 3,518.9 4,157.7 16.6
EBITDA Margins (%) 19.9 18.7 22.0 19.5 - 18.7 19.7 -
Net Profit 1,515.5 1,520.5 1,938.2 2,298.5 18.8 2,465.8 2,915.7 12.6
EPS (|) 87.3 86.6 110.3 130.8 - 140.3 165.9 -
P/E (x) 45.5 45.9 36.1 30.4 - 28.3 24.0 -
RoE (%) 31.0 28.1 26.5 26.1 - 24.1 24.4 -
RoCE (%) 40.4 30.7 31.9 32.3 - 29.0 29.6 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of quarter and conference call highlights

  • The company reported constant currency growth of 2.9% QoQ while dollar revenue growth was 1.7% QoQ to US$580 mn. In rupee terms, revenue grew 5.1% QoQ to | 4523 crore. Adjusted for pass-through, revenue would have been higher by 2%

 

  • In terms of CC growth, BFS and insurance reported strong growth of 6.3% and 3.9% QoQ, respectively while utilities, hi-tech & CPG reported muted growth at 1.9%, 0.5% & 0.2% QoQ, respectively. Manufacturing reported a steep decline of 12.6% on account of seasonal weakness

 

  • In CC terms, North America & Europe reported strong growth of 5.6% & 4.1% QoQ, respectively, but in dollar terms Europe revenue declined 0.8% QoQ implying currency headwinds. India revenue declined 13.4% on account of seasonal weakness. In terms of client profile, Top 5 customers reported strong growth of 4.4% QoQ

 

  • The company indicated that there is no anxiety at the top layer of LTI on merger related proceedings as they have been reaching out to them regarding their career paths in the merged entity. The top management has also arranged various town hall sessions across India to reach out to their employees to guide them on the merger and career opportunities in the merged entity. The management do not expect any churn at the top level

 

  • The company indicated that the demand environment continues to be strong as they continue to win deals (some more deal announcements in Q2FY23 likely). it closed four large deals with net new TCV US$79 mn with one deal each in BFS, utilities, hi-tech and others vertical while geography wise two were from the US, one in Europe and another in emerging market

 

  • It has not seen any cancellation or any deferment from the client side so far and indicated it is confident on the growth for CY22. However, it draws a cautious outlook for CY23. The company also continued to explore deals along with Mindtree. For Q1, it has won one large deal along with Mindtree with one of the leading European hospitality players

 

  • The EBIT margin declined 130 bps QoQ. It was impacted by wage hike (-300 bps) and travel & visa expenses (-70 bps), which was mitigated by operational efficiency & currency depreciation (+240 bps). The company indicated that 80-85% of employees are covered in the wage hike for Q1 and margins are expected to pick up from Q2 onwards. The company also indicated there would be a spillover of 10 bps impact of wage hike in Q2FY23

 

  • The company added net employees of 2,118 taking the total headcount to 48,766 employees. LTI has indicated that it will be hiring 6,500 freshers in FY23

 

  • The management indicated that on an LTM basis attrition has declined marginally by 20 bps QoQ to 23.8%. The company indicated that funding issues at the various start-up and subsequent layoffs has helped to ease off attrition, to some extent. However, the company clarified that it is temporary phenomenon and indicated that attrition is expected to remain at the elevated level for few quarters before coming down meaningfully

 

  • The company indicated that the pricing environment remained conducive especially in niche skills where the clients are willing to pay. LTI is getting price hikes in a few pockets.
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q1FY23   Q1FY23E   Q1FY22   YoY (%)  Q4FY22  QoQ (%)  Comments
 Revenue (US$ mn)               580              582              470 23.4              570 1.7  
Revenue (| crore) 4,523 4,492 3,463 30.6 4,302 5.1 Revenue growth led by BFS & insurance vertical while manufacturing vertical sees seasonal decline, which is expected to pick up in next quarters
Employee expenses 3,208 3,211 2,390 34.2 3,011 6.5 80-85% employees covered in Wage hike
               
Gross Margin 1,315 1,280 1,073 22.6 1,291 1.9  
Gross margin (%) 29.1 28.5 31.0 -190 bps 30.0 -92 bps  
Other expenses 485 463 425 14.0 444 9.1  
               
EBITDA 831 817 648 28.2 846 -1.8  
EBITDA Margin (%) 18.4 18.2 18.7 -34 bps 19.7 -131 bps  
Depreciation & amort 107 108 80 34.0 102 4.5  
EBIT 724 710 568 27.5 745 -2.7  
EBIT Margin (%) 16.0 15.8 16.4 -40 bps 17.3 -129 bps Margin impacted by following: Headwinds - a) wage hike -300 bps, b) travel & visa cost -70 bps, tailwinds: Operational efficiency & forex Gains +240 bps
Other income 127 90 104 21.9 115 10.1  
PBT 851 800 672 26.6 860 -1.0  
Tax paid 217 206 175 23.6 222 -2.5  
PAT 634 593 497 27.7 638 -0.5  

Disclaimer

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