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Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd>
  • CMP : 1,813.1 Chg : 3.10 (0.17%)
  • Target : 2,200.0 (20.48%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

24 Jul 2022

Growth trajectory continue to be healthy

About The Stock

Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB) is a powerful banking franchise, with promoter stake at ~26% and strong promoter led management. It has a presence across the financial services value chain.

  • CASA forms ~58% of total deposits aiding lower costs
  • Strong RoA of ~2%and RoE of 11-12% makes it a good profitable bank
Q1FY23

Strong business growth; steady operational performance

  • Advances up 28.8% YoY to 2.8 lakh crore, deposits up 10.4% YoY
  • NII growth at 19.2% YoY, NIMs expand 14 bps QoQ to 4.92%
  • Lower credit cost led PAT at ₹ 2071 crore, up 26.1% YoY
  • GNPA declined 10 bps QoQ to 2.24%; Net slippages at 0.2% of advances
What should Investors do?

KMB’s share price has grown by ~2x over the past five years. Pedalling growth along with diversified asset mix with focus on risk adjusted margin to aid earnings and keep asset quality steady.

We maintain BUY rating on the stock

Target Price Valuation

We value standalone bank at ~3.75x FY24E ABV and subsidiaries at ~₹ 488 post holding company discount giving SOTP target of ₹ 2200.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Continued growth momentum with prudent selection remains positive
  • Business growth, repricing of rates and increasing proportion of unsecured portfolio to aid yields; though mobilization of liabilities at competitive pricing remains a challenge to ensure margin trajectory
  • Adequate provision buffer and lower credit cost to safeguard RoA
  • Gradual increase in contribution of subsidiaries to add to consolidated valuation
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from Kotak, in our coverage we also like Axis Bank.

  • Strong liabilities franchise, adequate capitalisation and healthy provision buffer to aid business growth as well as earnings trajectory
  • BUY with target price of ₹ 970

Key Financial Summary

| crore FY20 FY21 FY22 3 year CAGR
(FY19-FY22)
FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR
(FY22-24E)
NII 13500 15340 16922 15% 20117 23737 18%
PPP 10021 11762 12196 13% 14311 17020 18%
PAT 5137 6965 7989 19% 9620 10831 16%
ABV 248 308 349   401 455  
 P/E                 68.0                52.0                45.3                  37.6                33.4  
 P/ABV                   7.3                  5.9                  5.2                    4.5                  4.0  
 RoA                   1.5                  1.9                  2.0                    2.1                  2.0  
 RoE                 11.2                12.4                11.8                  12.6                12.5  

 

Variance Table

  Q1FY23 Q1FY23E Q1FY22 YoY (%) Q4FY22 QoQ (%) Comments
NII 4,697.0 4,724.1 3,941.7 19.2 4,521.4 3.9 Driven by healthy loan growth nd margin expansion
NIM (%) 4.92 4.80 4.60 32 bps 4.78 14 bps Margins inched up led by higher traction in unsecured loans
Other Income 1,243.8 1,689.7 1,351.8 -8.0 1,826.3 -31.9  
               
Net Total Income 5,940.8 6,413.8 5,293.4 12.2 6,347.7 -6.4  
Staff cost 1,172.8 1,109.4 1,082.3 8.4 1,122.8 4.5 Advertisement, tech & communication cost gone up
Other Operating Expenses 1,984.7 1,982.0 1,321.3 50.2 1,885.0 5.3  
               
PPP 2,783.3 3,322.5 2,889.8 -3.7 3,339.9 -16.7  
Provision 23.6 219.2 703.5 -96.6 -306.2 -107.7 Covid provisions of ₹ 65 crore reversed
PBT 2,759.7 3,103.3 2,186.3 26.2 3,646.1 -24.3  
Tax Outgo 688.5 775.8 544.4 26.5 878.7 -21.6  
PAT 2,071.2 2,327.5 1,641.9 26.1 2,767.4 -25.2  
               
Key Metrics              
GNPA 6,378.6 6,028.1 7,931.8 -19.6 6,469.7 -1.4 Out of total slippages ₹ 781 crore got upgraded
NNPA 1,749.3 1,657.7 2,792.3 -37.4 1,736.7 0.7  
Advances 2,80,171 2,73,983 2,17,447 28.8 2,71,254 3.3 Driven by secured and unsecured retail segment
Deposits 3,16,483 3,20,947 2,86,560 10.4 3,11,684 1.5  

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