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Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd>
  • CMP : 1,645.0 Chg : 1.05 (0.06%)
  • Target : 2,290.0 (18.22%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

08 May 2023

Another quarter of robust all-round performance…

About The Stock

Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB) is a powerful banking franchise, with promoter stake at ~26% and strong promoter led management. It has a presence across the financial services value chain.

  • CASA forms ~53% of total deposits aiding lower costs
  • Superior RoA of ~2+% and RoE of ~14%
Q4FY23

Robust performance with further improvement in asset quality.

  • Advances up 17.9% YoY to ₹ 3.2 lakh crore, deposits up 16.5% YoY
  • NII growth at 35% YoY, NIMs expand 28 bps QoQ to 5.75%
  • Credit cost at 24 bps. PAT grew 26.3% YoY, 25.2% QoQ at ₹ 3495 crore
  • GNPA declined 12 bps QoQ to 1.8%; net slippages at 0.3% of advances
What should Investors do?

KMB’s share price has grown by 1.6x over the past five years. Focus on granular asset, liability mix and risk adjusted margins to aid earnings and return ratios. Management transition remains a near term event.

  • We maintain BUY rating on the stock as the long term well capitalised bank offers comfort
Target Price and Valuation

We value the standalone bank at ~3.4x FY25E ABV and subsidiaries at ~₹ 501 post holding company discount giving an SOTP target price of ₹ 2290.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Management confident of better than industry growth and have required resources to fund the growth
  • Healthy demand in unsecured segment to drive growth as well as margins. Expect strong RoA of 2.4% and gradual improvement in RoE
  • Continued investment in tech and branch expansion may elevate opex in the near term, though benefit to accrue subsequently
  • Gradual improvement in contribution of subsidiaries to aid valuation of consolidated entity
Alternate Stock

Apart from Kotak, in our coverage we also like Axis Bank.

  • Strong liabilities franchise, adequate capitalisation and healthy provision buffer to aid business growth as well as earnings trajectory
  • BUY with target price of ₹ 1100

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 3 Year CAGR(FY20-FY23) FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (FY23-FY25E)
NII 13,499.7 15,339.6 16,817.9 21,551.9 16.9 24,857.4 28,313.9 14.6
PPP 10,020.8 11,762.0 11,682.4 14,848.0 14.0 17,705.5 20,368.3 17.1
PAT 5,136.5 6,964.8 8,204.3 10,939.3 28.7 12,841.5 14,730.7 16.0
ABV 248.1 307.9 356.8 415.1 - 479.7 526.0 -
P/E 72.1 55.1 46.8 35.1 - 29.9 26.1 -
P/ABV 7.8 6.2 5.4 4.7 - 4.0 3.7 -
Consol P/E 39.2 32.4 27.9 0.0 - 0.0 0.0 -
Consol P/BV 5.6 4.8 4.3 0.0 - 0.0 0.0 -
RoA 1.5 1.9 2.0 2.4 - 2.4 2.4 -
RoE 11.2 12.4 12.0 14.0 - 14.3 14.6 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

  Q4FY23 Q4FY23E Q4FY22 YoY (%) Q3FY23 QoQ (%) Comments
NII 6,102.6 5,946.7 4,521.4 35.0 5,652.9 8.0 Led by healthy uptick in margins
NIM (%) 5.75 5.70 4.78 97 bps 5.47 28 bps Higher focus on retail unsecured segment and repricing improved NIMs
Other Income 2,186.3 2,282.9 1,826.3 19.7 2,100.0 4.1 Fee income up 22% YoY
               
Net Total Income 8,288.8 8,229.6 6,347.7 30.6 7,752.9 6.9  
Staff cost 1,454.5 1,521.4 1,122.8 29.5 1,477.8 -1.6  
Other Operating Expenses 2,187.0 2,563.6 1,885.0 16.0 2,425.3 -9.8  
               
PPP 4,647.4 4,144.5 3,339.9 39.1 3,849.8 20.7  
Provision 147.6 164.8 -306.2 -148.2 148.8 -0.8 Credit cost at 24bps vs 27bps QoQ
PBT 4,499.8 3,979.7 3,646.1 23.4 3,701.0 21.6  
Tax Outgo 1,004.2 994.9 878.7 14.3 909.1 10.5  
PAT 3,495.6 2,984.8 2,767.4 26.3 2,791.9 25.2 Aided by strong PPP and lowered provisions
               
Key Metrics              
GNPA 5,768.3 5,596.3 6,469.7 -10.8 5,994.6 -3.8 Out of total slippages, ₹ 218 crore got upgraded
NNPA 1,193.3 1,511.0 1,736.7 -31.3 1,344.8 -11.3  
Advances 3,19,861 3,29,574 2,71,254 17.9 3,10,734 2.9 Aided by secured and unsecured retail segment 
Deposits 3,63,096 3,53,761 3,11,684 16.5 3,44,666 5.3  

 

Q4FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Guidance – NIMs at 5% plus in FY24. Industry credit growth to be 1.5-2x of nominal GDP
  • The management will continue to focus on growth with risk adjusted returns. The share of unsecured retail loans improved to double digit and likely to improve further driven by strong demand
  • During the quarter, the corporate segment witnessed competitive pressure on pricing. The aim will be to focus more on mid-market segment in SME and large corporate
  • Demand for housing loans was healthy in spite of rising interest rates. However, it witnessed some pressure in the CRE segment
  • The bank has gained market share in the CV segment led by strong volume growth
  • MFI – The bank has increased its presence to 10 states vs. five states earlier
  • Loan mix – 30% book at fixed rate, 57% is EBLR linked and balance linked to MCLR
  • CASA share has declined as most of the SA has shifted to term deposits and MF due to higher rates. The management will continue to focus on SA accretion
  • Bank will continue to invest in tech, employee and branch addition in FY24. Total ~150 branches will be added in FY24
  • The management mentioned that they are open for inorganic growth (across financial services including PSU banks)

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I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA and Pravin Mule, MBA, M.com, Research Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.     

 

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