loader2
Login Open ICICI 3-in-1 Account
  • CMP : 2,164.6 Chg : -8.60 (-0.40%)
  • Target : 2,175.0 (23.37%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

23 Jan 2023

Robust all round performance..

About The Stock

Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB) is a powerful banking franchise, with promoter stake at ~26% and strong promoter led management. It has a presence across the financial services value chain.

  • CASA forms ~53% of total deposits aiding lower costs
  • Superior RoA of ~2% and RoE of ~12%
Q2FY23

Robust business growth and operational performance.

  • Advances up 22.9% YoY to 3.1 lakh crore, deposits up 12.9% YoY
  • NII growth at 30.4% YoY, NIMs expand 30 bps QoQ to 5.47%
  • Credit cost at 27 bps. PAT grew 31% YoY, 8.2% QoQ at ₹ 2791 crore
  • GNPA declined 18 bps QoQ to 1.9%; Net slippages at 0.2% of advances
What should Investors do?

KMB’s share price has grown by 1.6x over the past five years. Focus on risk adjusted growth, granularity of liabilities and improving wealth management business to aid earnings and keep return ratios.

  • We maintain BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

Rolling to FY25E, we value standalone bank at ~3.35x FY25E ABV and subsidiaries at ~₹ 497 post holding company discount giving SOTP target of ₹ 2175.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Continued focus on unsecured lending to drive growth as well as margins
  • Business growth, repricing of rates and shift to high yielding segment to aid margins; though deposit accretion at reasonable cost remains a challenge
  • Focus on wealth management business to aid fee income without NPA risk
  • Gradual improvement in subsidiaries contribution to add valuation of consolidated entity.
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from Kotak, in our coverage we also like Axis Bank.

  • Strong liabilities franchise, adequate capitalisation and healthy provision buffer to aid business growth as well as earnings trajectory
  • BUY with target price of ₹ 1000

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 3 year CAGR_(FY19-FY22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR _(FY22-25E)
NII 13,499.7 15,339.6 16,817.9 14.5 20,748.7 23,161.3 26,599.6 16.5
PPP 10,020.8 11,762.0 12,050.9 13.0 14,244.9 16,043.6 18,667.2 15.7
PAT 5,136.5 6,964.8 8,572.7 21.8 10,206.2 11,161.1 12,741.1 14.1
ABV 248.1 307.9 356.8 - 408.4 460.3 500.8 -
P/E 65.7 50.2 40.8 - 34.2 31.3 27.4 -
P/ABV 7.1 5.7 4.9 - 4.3 3.8 3.5 -
RoA 1.5 1.9 2.1 - 2.2 2.1 2.1 -
RoE 11.2 12.4 12.6 - 13.2 12.6 13.0 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

  Q3FY23 Q3FY23E Q3FY22 YoY (%) Q2FY23 QoQ (%) Comments
NII 5,652.9 5,383.3 4,334.3 30.4 5,099.4 10.9 Driven by business growth and margins uptick
NIM (%) 5.47 5.30 4.62 85 bps 5.17 30 bps Higher focus on retail unsecured segment and repricing improved NIMs
Other Income 2,100.0 1,977.3 1,363.7 54.0 1,954.2 7.5 Fee income up 23.5% YoY
               
Net Total Income 7,752.9 7,360.7 5,698.0 36.1 7,053.6 9.9  
Staff cost 1,477.8 1,313.8 1,199.8 23.2 1,414.7 4.5  
Other Operating Expenses 2,425.3 2,246.4 1,797.1 35.0 2,071.4 17.1 Focus on building capabilities keep opex elevated
               
PPP 3,849.8 3,800.4 2,701.0 42.5 3,567.5 7.9  
Provision 148.8 201.4 -131.7 -213.0 137.0 8.6 Covid provisions of ₹ 38 crore got reversed
PBT 3,701.0 3,599.0 2,832.7 30.7 3,430.5 7.9  
Tax Outgo 909.1 899.8 701.4 29.6 849.8 7.0  
PAT 2,791.9 2,699.3 2,131.4 31.0 2,580.7 8.2 Aided by strong top line and sustained business growth
               
Key Metrics              
GNPA 5,994.6 6,040.1 6,982.8 -14.2 6,210.2 -3.5 Out of total slippages, ₹ 171 crore got upgraded
NNPA 1,344.8 1,630.8 2,003.5 -32.9 1,630.4 -17.5  
Advances 3,10,734 3,09,845 2,52,935 22.9 2,94,023 5.7 Aided by secured and unsecured retail segment 
Deposits 3,44,666 3,43,447 3,05,286 12.9 3,25,202 6.0 Fixed SA deposits declined marginally YoY

 

Q3FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Management will continue to focus on growth with risk adjusted return in focus. In corporate segment, competitive pressure on pricing was significant during the quarter. Aim is to focus more on mid-market segment in SME and large corporate. SME book to witness faster growth of 25% YoY as compared to rest of the corporate book.
  • Focus on granular deposit and liability franchise especially salaried segment.
  • Unsecured retail segment proportion to increase to mid-teens by Q4FY24 vs 9.3% at present.
  • AIF business to be more than $5mn in next couple of quarters and bank is committed to put ~15% of group capital.
  • Opex was higher due to promotional activities, higher cost on IT and related activities, pay out to DSAs. Going ahead. investment in franchise and capability building to continue in next couple of quarters.
  • ~15% of MCLR book is yet to be repriced, which will see come pickup in NIMs in upcoming quarter.
  • SA deposits (especially bulk deposits which are more than ₹50 lakhs) have moved to term deposits and mutual funds and non-replenishment of some government business. LCR at ~121.4%
  • Digital transactions are going up hence bank will take measured steps in expanding branch network. Though, ~150 branch addition is on cards in FY24.
  • Employee count ~73000 at bank level (~71000 in Q2FY23) and ~1 lakh at group level.

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

 

I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA and Pravin Mule, MBA, M.com, Research Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.                

 

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

 

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.

ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.

 

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.

 

Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stocks price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a companys fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports.

 

Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.

 

ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Institutional Research.

 

The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances.

 

This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months.

 

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report.

 

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.

 

ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report.

 

Since associates of ICICI Securities and ICICI Securities as a entity are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or actual/beneficial ownership of one percent or more or other material conflict of interest various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.

 

ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.

 

Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report.

 

We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities.

 

This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

Read More