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  • CMP : 2,170.3 Chg : -2.90 (-0.13%)
  • Target : 2,250.0 (18.30%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

23 Oct 2022

Healthy growth across businesses…

About The Stock

Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB) is a powerful banking franchise, with promoter stake at ~26% and strong promoter led management. It has a presence across the financial services value chain.

  • CASA forms ~56% of total deposits aiding lower costs
  • Strong RoA of ~2% and RoE of 11-12% makes it a good profitable bank
Q2FY23

Robust business growth and operational performance.

  • Advances up 25.1% YoY to 2.94 lakh crore, deposits up 11.5% YoY
  • NII growth at 26.8% YoY, NIMs expand 25 bps QoQ to 5.17%
  • Credit cost at 26 bps. PAT grew 27% YoY, 25% QoQ at ₹ 2580 crore
  • GNPA declined 16 bps QoQ to 2.08%; Net slippages at 0.2% of advances
What should Investors do?

KMB’s share price has grown by 18% over the past three years. Pedalling growth along with diversified asset mix with focus on risk adjusted margins to aid earnings and keep asset quality steady.

  • We maintain BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value standalone bank at ~3.75x FY24E ABV and subsidiaries at ~₹ 488 post holding company discount giving SOTP target of ₹ 2250

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Continued growth momentum across key areas to drive business growth
  • Business growth, repricing of rates and shift to high yielding segments to aid margins; though deposit accretion at reasonable cost remains key
  • Provision buffer coupled with steady asset quality to keep credit cost lower
  • Gradual increase in contribution of subsidiaries to add to consolidated valuation
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from Kotak, in our coverage we also like Axis Bank.

  • Strong liabilities franchise, adequate capitalisation and healthy provision buffer to aid business growth as well as earnings trajectory

 

  • BUY with target price of ₹ 1000

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 3 year CAGR_(FY19-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR _(FY22-24E)
NII 11,205.8 13,499.7 15,339.6 16,817.9 14.5 20,148.4 23,958.8 19.4
PPP 8,348.2 10,020.8 11,762.0 12,050.9 13.0 14,093.2 16,808.6 18.1
PAT 4,747.1 5,136.5 6,964.8 8,572.7 21.8 9,670.0 11,293.4 14.8
ABV 216.7 248.1 307.9 356.8 - 407.4 462.5 -
P/E 76.5 70.8 54.1 44.0 - 39.0 33.4 -
P/ABV 8.7 7.6 6.1 5.3 - 4.7 4.1 -
RoA 1.6 1.5 1.9 2.1 - 2.1 2.1 -
RoE 11.8 11.2 12.4 12.6 - 12.5 12.9 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

  Q2FY23 Q2FY23E Q2FY22 YoY (%) Q1FY23 QoQ (%) Comments
NII 5,099.4 4,846.7 4,020.6 26.8 4,697.0 8.6 Driven by healthy loan growth and margin expansion
NIM (%) 5.17 5.01 4.45 72 bps 4.92 25 bps Rate transmission & focus on unsecured loans drive margins
Other Income 1,954.2 1,540.7 1,812.6 7.8 1,243.8 57.1  
               
Net Total Income 7,053.6 6,387.5 5,833.2 20.9 5,940.8 18.7  
Staff cost 1,414.7 1,289.3 1,177.4 20.2 1,172.8 20.6  
Other Operating Expenses 2,071.4 1,919.5 1,535.6 34.9 1,984.7 4.4 Opex continue to remain elevated
               
PPP 3,567.5 3,178.7 3,120.2 14.3 2,783.3 28.2  
Provision 137.0 28.8 424.0 -67.7 23.6 480.8 Covid provisions of ₹ 44 crore reversed
PBT 3,430.5 3,149.9 2,696.2 27.2 2,759.7 24.3  
Tax Outgo 849.8 787.5 664.2 28.0 688.5 23.4  
PAT 2,580.7 2,362.4 2,032.0 27.0 2,071.2 24.6  
               
Key Metrics              
GNPA 6,210.2 6,202.9 7,658.0 -18.9 6,378.6 -2.6 Out of total slippages ₹ 330 crore got upgraded
NNPA 1,630.4 1,674.8 2,491.4 -34.6 1,749.3 -6.8  
Advances 2,94,023 2,97,231 2,34,965 25.1 2,80,171 4.9 Driven by secured and unsecured retail segment
Deposits 3,25,202 3,29,634 2,91,711 11.5 3,16,483 2.8 Accretion in TD remain buoyant

 

Q2FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Growth in CVs, tractors, unsecured retail, SME and home loans drove overall credit growth. While July and August 2022 remained muted, CE segment witnessed revival from Sep 2022 onwards. Strong demand seen in cars (in range of | 10-14 lakhs) which is aiding auto financing segment
  • Unsecured plus MFI book at 8.5% of advances. Continues to target contribution in mid-teens as proportion of advances.
  • The bank remains selective in the corporate segment given continued irrationality in pricing. Robust growth continued in SME segment with focus on new customer acquisition and capacity creation by customers
  • Total 70% of the book is on floating rate and out of balance 30%, ~10% is fixed rate with one-year tenure
  • The management believes there will be less MTM risk, going ahead. HTM is 35% of the total investment book
  • With inching up of interest rates, some shift is seen from SA to liquid schemes, especially by ultra HNI customers. FPI Custody holding witnessed decline, though CA accretion still remain healthy
  • Got approval for government agency business; the same is expected to drive granular CA and SA growth, going ahead. Retail TD less than 2 crore contributes ~60% of total TD

Disclaimer

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I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA and Pravin Mule, MBA, M.com, Research Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.                

 

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