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  • CMP : 223.7 Chg : 2.76 (1.25%)
  • Target : 560.0 (11.55%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

03 Aug 2022

Industrial segment drives performance…

About The Stock

Kansai is the global leader in industrial coatings (automotive). However, in the last 10 years, it has increased its decorative paint mix to 55% of its total topline. Currently, Kansai is the third largest decorative paint player in India.

  • Strong distribution network of ~28,000 dealers across the country with 75-80% penetration of tinting machine
  • In the last two years, KNL has increased its total paint manufacturing capacity by 28% to 5.3 lakh tonnes at an investment of ~₹ 1100 crore
Q1FY23 Results

Favourable base and strong demand of industrial paints drives overall performance

  • Revenue increased by 49% YoY to ₹ 1945 crore in Q1FY23 led by volume growth of ~30%. As per our estimates, industrial and decorative paint volumes are up by 40% and 23% YoY respectively
  • Gross margin remained under pressure due to delay in price hikes. However, EBITDA margin fall was restricted at 124 bps YoY to 13.1% through savings in employee costs and other expenses
  • PAT up by 37% YoY to ₹ 163 crore, tracking topline growth
What should Investors do?

Kansai’s share price has grown at CAGR of ~2% over the past five years (from ~₹ 455 in August 2017 to ~₹ 502 levels in August 2022).

We change our rating on stock from REDUCE to HOLD

Target Price and Valuation

We value Kansai at ₹ 560 i.e. 42x P/E on FY24E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • We believe regaining of lost market share in the decorative paint (~55% of total revenue) will be key trigger for company’s future revenue growth.
  • Revival in passenger vehicle sales and strong demand momentum in industrial paints would help in a recovery in 45% of KNL’s revenue portfolio
  • Focus on improving product mix towards premium products would help drive gross margin, going forward
  • Higher advertisement expenses will keep overall EBITDA margin expansion under check
Alternate Stock Idea

We like Asian Paints in our coverage universe. Asian Paints (APL) is India’s largest decorative paint company. The company derives ~98% revenue from the paints business. Robust b/s with RoCE, RoE of 30%, 25%, respectively

BUY with a target price of ₹ 3700

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 5,173.6 4,943.2 4,770.9 5,948.9 8.3 7,447.8 8,393.4 18.8
EBITDA 742.0 781.6 843.5 647.3 -2.4 995.7 1,161.1 33.9
EBITDA Margin (%) 14.3 15.8 17.7 10.9 - 13.4 13.8 -
Net Profit 467.3 535.4 530.6 374.3 -5.8 624.2 722.4 38.9
EPS (|) 8.7 9.9 9.8 6.9 - 11.6 13.4 -
P/E (x) 57.9 50.5 51.0 72.3 - 43.3 37.5 -
Price/Book (x) 7.9 7.1 6.6 6.5 - 6.4 5.8 -
Mcap/Sales (x) 5.2 5.5 5.7 4.5 - 3.6 3.2 -
RoE (%) 13.6 14.1 13.2 9.2 - 14.7 15.6 -
RoCE (%) 20.2 17.5 17.2 12.1 - 19.5 21.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

Demand Outlook

  • Decorative Paints Segment:
    • There is a higher demand for decorative paints from metro and Tier-1 cities
    • Kansai Nerolac has expanded its reach in institutional business in metro cities
    • The company plans add more products in every quarter in premium and super premium category in this segment. New products added in the previous quarter have seen good growth
    • Among listed Paint companies, Kansai Nerolac has ~10% market share in this segment
  • Industrial Paints Segment:
    • There is a revival in demand in this segment led by easing of chip shortages in the automotive industry. The revenue contribution from this segment is ~45%. Out of this, the automotive industry contributes ~70% to the revenue from the industrial paints segments
    • The company has stopped production of low margin products in this segment
    • The company is planning to introduce high technology products in this segment to drive demand
    • The company is going to increase its focus on premium segments of performance coatings
  • Margins:
    • Kansai has taken ~2% price increase in Q1FY23 
    • The company is moving towards high technology & premium products to improve its margins
    • More price increases will be required in industrial paints segment to offset inflation
    • The product mix is inferior in the second quarter of financial as compared to the first quarter due to seasonality and hence scope for improvement in margins is low in Q2FY23. However, due to pick up in demand for industrial paints, margins can see some improvement. The company generally has a better product mix is better in the first and third quarter of the financial year
    • EIBTDA margin gap between Industrial and decorative ranges between 7-8 percentage point. Company focuses to reduce the gap by launching superior products.
  • Distribution Expansion:
    • In the decorative paints, ~40% revenue comes from the tier 1,2 cities (lower than industry average of 55%), while small cities & rural contributes 60% to company’s topline. 
    • The company had ~28000 dealers in the decorative paints segment in FY22. In Q1FY23, the distribution reach has increased by higher double digit
  • Capex
    • The company envisages capex of | 290 crore (excluding maintenance capex of | 60 crore) over FY23E-24E to increase its water based paints capacity
    • The industrial paint capacity is enough to serve rising demand from the OEMs for the next two years
  Q1FY23 Q1FY23E Q1FY22 YoY (%) Q4FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Net Revenue 1,944.6 1,823.7 1,301.2 49.4 1,412.8 37.6   Favourable base and revival in the industrial paints demand drives topline growth
Other Income 4.4 10.9 9.7 -54.7 7.6 -42.5    
                 
Raw Material Exp 1,362.9 1,245.2 856.0 59.2 1,017.7 33.9   Delay in price hike put dents on gross margin by ~430 bps YoY
Employee Exp 77.5 79.3 69.8 11.1 96.6 -19.8    
Manuf & Other exp 248.6 272.1 188.2 32.1 215.6 15.3    
Total Expenses 1,689.0 1,596.6 1,114.1 51.6 1,329.9 27.0    
                 
EBITDA 255.6 227.1 187.1 36.6 82.9 208.2    
EBITDA Margin (%) 13.1 12.5 14.4 -124 bps 5.9 727 bps   Savings in employee costs and other expenses restricted EBITDA margin fall at 124 bps YoY
Depreciation 39.3 45.6 35.8 9.8 39.1 0.4    
Interest 2.3 2.5 2.5 0.0 2.6 0.0    
                 
PBT 218.4 189.9 158.5 37.8 37.4 483.2    
Total Tax 55.5 47.8 39.9 39.2 12.9 329.9    
Adj PAT 162.9 142.0 118.7 37.3 24.5 563.9   PAT growth is tracking higher topline growth
                 
Key Metrics                
Volume Growth (%) 30.0 21.0 112.0   -5.0     Favourable base and recovery in the automotive demand helped drive overall volume growth of the company. We believe industrial and decorative paint volume increased by 40% and 23% YoY respectively
Realisation Growth (%) 15.0 15.8 5.5   9.7     The company has taken price hike of ~2% QoQ

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

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