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  • CMP : 1,085.4 Chg : -2.80 (-0.26%)
  • Target : 1,310.0 (19.31%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

29 Jan 2023

Muted performance; margins to improve ahead

About The Stock

Kajaria Ceramics is the largest manufacturer of ceramic/vitrified tiles in India with current annual capacity of 84.5 mn sq metre (MSM)

  • Apart from completed capex of ₹ 250 crore on tiles, it is adding 1.8 MSM brownfield capex in Sikandrabad and setting up a plant of 8 MSM in Nepal in a JV with investment of ~₹ 125 crore
Q3FY23

Weak performance with muted volumes.

  • Topline was up 2.1% YoY at ₹ 1091 crore. Tiles sales volumes were muted (down ~0.7% YoY at 25.5 MSM). Three-year volume CAGR was at 8%. Tiles revenues were up 2.3% YoY at ₹ 984 crore, with pricing growth of ~4% YoY. Kajaria provided some dealer discounts in November/December, after a sharp dip in demand in October amid festive holidays
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 133 crore, with resultant margins at 12.2%, down 500 bps YoY but up 20 bps QoQ
  • PAT was at ₹ 74.3 crore, down 39% YoY and up 6.4% QoQ
What should Investors do?

Kajaria’s share price has grown at ~12% CAGR over the past five years (from ~₹ 613 in January, 2023 to ~₹ 1098 currently).

  • Kajaria with a net cash balance sheet and superior brand, is a solid play on the tiles sector with expanding reach to tier 2/3 cities. With gas price easing & alternate fuel use, margin recovery is on the anvil. Thus, we maintain BUY
Target Price and Valuation

We value Kajaria at ₹ 1310/share, at 36x FY25 P/E.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • We expect ~11.5% CAGR in tiles volume and realisations CAGR of 3%, resulting in tiles revenues CAGR of ~15% over FY22-25 to ₹ 5093 crore
  • The increased dividend payout (~45% vs. 20-25%, earlier) is likely to improve return ratios (RoCEs likely at 24%+ in FY25E vs. ~21.5% in FY22)
  • Any further gas prices respite could surprise margins positively
New Stock Ideas

Besides Kajaria, we like Brigade in Real Estate space.

  • A play on strong launch pipeline
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 620

Key Financial Summary

(| crore) FY20 FY21 FY22 5 yr CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 yr CAGR (FY22-25E)
Net Sales 2,808.0 2,780.9 3,705.2 7.8 4,354.0 5,006.0 5,691.0 15.4
EBITDA 415.9 508.8 610.8 4.2 582.4 801.8 911.8 14.3
EBITDA Margin (%) 14.8 18.3 16.5 - 13.4 16.0 16.0 -
PAT 255.3 308.1 377.1 8.3 340.4 498.6 577.3 15.3
EPS (|) 16.1 19.4 23.7 - 21.4 31.4 36.3 -
P/E (x) 68.3 56.7 46.3 - 51.3 35.0 30.2 -
P/B (x) 10.2 9.3 8.2 - 7.5 6.6 5.8 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 41.7 33.6 28.1 - 29.6 21.5 18.6 -
RoCE (%) 16.3 19.7 21.5 - 18.4 23.3 24.1 -
RoE 14.9 16.5 17.8 - 14.6 18.9 19.3 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key performance highlight and outlook

  • Volume driver and current volume traction: Kajaria’s sales volume in the tiles segment was muted YoY (down 0.7%) to 25.5 MSM) mainly impacted by a subdued demand scenario. Three-year volume CAGR was at 8%. Tiles revenues were up 2.3% YoY at | 984 crore, with pricing growth of ~4% YoY and change in product mix (mix in volume terms was ceramics - 45%; vitrified - 26%; GVT - 29% in Q3 vs. ceramics - 46%; vitrified - 26%; GVT - 28% in Q2). We highlight that QoQ realisations were down 1.2% as the company also provided some dealer discounts in November/December, after a sharp dip in volumes in October amid festive holidays. Going forward, the management is confident of a gradual demand pickup, continued traction in real estate sector, upped re-construction/renovation, and government’s focus on infrastructure spending
  • Industry update: As per the management, the overall size of the tiles industry during FY22 was at ~| 52,700 crore (domestic: | 40,000 crore; export: ~| 12,700 crore). Exports opportunity for Indian players, however, remained muted in FY22 due to Covid-19 disruptions, significant rise in gas prices, higher freight costs, and unavailability of containers at desired levels. Going forward, exports from Indian manufacturers are likely to reach
    ~| 15000-16000 crore in FY23 with likely exports of ~| 5000 crore in Q4
  • Guidance: The management has guided for ~13-15% YoY volume growth in the tiles segment during FY24 likely to be driven by a) expected rise in demand from Tier II and below cities, b) healthy capacity utilisation, c) expected increase in Kajaria’s capacity, d) enhanced distribution network and e) strong brand recall. Also, the company expects minimum 200 bps improvement in margin (to 14%+) during Q4FY23 with relaxation in gas prices and use of alternate fuel
  • Gas price: Gas prices for the industry have seen some easing in the last few months. For Kajaria, average gas prices for Q3FY23 in its northern, southern and Morbi plants were at ~| 57/SCM, ~| 44/SCM and | 48/SCM, respectively, with overall average of | 53/ SCM (vs average gas prices in its northern, southern and Morbi plants during Q2FY23 was at ~| 59/SCM,
    ~| 48/SCM and | 53/SCM, respectively, with overall average of | 56/ SCM).
    Going forward, the management expects gas prices to soften further
  • Use of alternate fuel: The company has started using alternate fuel i.e., mustard husk with secure supply arrangements and will cost around
    | 30/SCM (cost likely to be further lower with new crop). Thus, the management stated that by February, 2023, ~65-70% of its fuel mix will be natural gas while the remaining 30-35% will be alternate fuel (biogas) and some LPG. Thus, the company’s average fuel price is likely to come down to | 47-48/SCM in Q4FY23 (vs. | 53/SCM in Q3FY23)
  • Allied business: Kajaria’s subsidiaries and allied businesses reported muted growth during Q3FY23. In the faucet and sanitaryware segment, revenues were down 2.7% YoY at | 79.5 crore. The management expects segmental revenue to improve led by introduction of newer products, strengthened distribution network and larger acceptance by consumers. In the plywood business, revenues were down 25% YoY and were at | 18.8 crore while adhesive business contributed | 9 crore to the overall topline
  • Working capital & Capex: Working capital has increased to 66 days (vs. 62 days at Q2 FY23-end) due to build-up in inventories amid muted demand. Going forward, the management expects working capital days to hover at current levels to 50-60 days. The company expect capex of | 90 crore in FY23 (| 75 crore in M9FY23) and ~300-350 crore in FY24.
  • Expansion: Kajaria announced an expansion for large sized glazed vitrified tiles capacity of 1.8 MSM/annum at the Sikandrabad plant recently, which will increase the total capacity of the plant from 8.4 MSM/annum to 10.8 MSM/annum at the capex of | 70 crore. The expansion is likely to be completed by September, 2023. Furthermore, it is undertaking modernisation of its ceramic tile manufacturing capacity at Gailpur (Rajasthan) for a capex of ~| 51 crore. The modernised capacity will produce tiles of larger size (and will have higher realisation)
  • Allied business expansion: Additionally, the company is expected to invest | 70 crore to set up a 6 lakh pieces per annum sanitaryware manufacturing facility in Gujarat (revenue potential: ~| 150 crore at full capacity utilisation). The expansion is expected to be completed by December, 2023. Further, the company is adding new capacity of 6 lakh pieces/annum in its faucet plant at Gailpur, which will take the total the capacity to 16 lakh pieces/annum. Estimated cost for this expansion is ~| 5 crore and is expected to be completed by March, 2023
  • Acquisition: Kajaria has approved acquisition of further ~7.6% stake in Kajaria Vitrified, which will increase its total stake to 95%
  • Investment in Nepal: The Board has approved an investment up to | 125 crore (i.e., 50% of project cost of | 250 crore) in a company to be incorporated in Nepal, by way of equity and/or loan, for establishing a tile manufacturing facility in Nepal, with annual capacity of 8 MSM/annum, on a JV basis between the company and various individuals affiliated with Ramesh Corp, Nepal. The work on the plant will begin in March, 2023. The plant is likely to get commissioned by March 2024. Kajaria expects production of tiles with plant at Nepal to benefit it largely with rise in market share backed by a) significant market size: Indian manufacturers exports tiles worth | 500 crore (25 MSM) at Nepal and b) higher 45% import duty for Indian producers. Margins would be better compared with Indian plant as it will coal fired
  • Divestment: The board has approved disinvestment of Kajaria’s 52% stake to other shareholders in phased manner at an aggregate consideration of
    | 18.25 crore. Vennar Ceramics has current capacity of 2.9 MSM and had limited brownfield expansion possibilities. Hence, Kajaria has announced the divestment. The company plans to replace the supply from Vennar Ceramics by outsourcing to Morbi
  • Dealer additions: Kajaria had a base of 1,825 dealers across India at FY22-end. Moreover, it added 125 dealers during 9MFY23. Overall, the company is aiming to add 400-500 dealers over the next two to three years

Kajaria with a net cash balance sheet and superior brand, is a solid play on the tiles sector with expanding reach to tier II/III cities. We believe gas price uncertainty is fully built in and recovery in margin is clearly visible ahead. We maintain BUY. We value it at multiple at 36x FY25E P/E to ascribe a revised target price of
| 1310/share.

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