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K E C International Ltd>
  • CMP : 729.3 Chg : -4.50 (-0.61%)
  • Target : 379.0 (1.34%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

04 May 2022

Strong order inflows but margins disappoint…

About The Stock

KEC International (KEC) is one of the EPC majors in key infrastructure sectors such as power T&D, railways, civil, urban infrastructure, solar, smart infrastructure, oil & gas pipelines and cables.
 A strategic shift in portfolio from T&D to non-T&D (13% contribution in FY16 increased to 50% in FY22)
 T&D diversified across countries with entry in ~20 countries in last five years

Q4FY22

KEC reported a weak set of Q4FY22 numbers.
 Revenue declined marginally by 2% YoY to ₹ 4274.8 crore on account of lower execution on T&D segment
 EBITDA was at ₹ 251.7 crore, down 29% YoY with margins at 5.9%, impacted by business mix, SAE project headwinds and higher input cost
 Consequently, adjusted PAT came in at ₹ 112 crore, down 42.3% YoY
 FY22 order inflows came in highest ever at ₹ 17203 crore

What should Investors do?

KEC’s share price has grown by ~4x over the past five years (from ~₹ 125 in March 2016 to ~₹ 500 levels in January 2022).
 We remain long term positive and retain our HOLD rating on the stock

Target Price Valuation

We value KEC at ₹ 379 i.e. 15x P/E on FY24E EPS

Key Triggers for future price performance

We expect revenue to grow at ~14.2% CAGR in FY22-24E owing to strong order book worth ~₹ 23716 crore and L1 orders worth ~₹ 4000 crore
 Strong order pipeline for FY23E to ensure decent order inflow growth
 SAE business to turn around in next financial year with closure of two legacy projects. In first half of FY23 margins will be slightly better than Q4FY22 and will start contributing with decent margins from H2FY23E onwards

New Stock Ideas

We also like Thermax in our coverage.
 Strong balance sheet, prudent working capital management, recent technological tie-ups, are expected to support growth
 BUY with a target price of ₹ 2445

Q4FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

In Q4FY22, overall T&D business (including SAE tower) revenue fell 16% YoY to | 1940 crore impacted by project execution headwinds and rising commodity prices. In FY22 there was a loss of revenue by ~| 1000 crore due to suspension of projects in Afghanistan environmental issues, Covid issues in international markets (| 500 crore), | 500 crore on account of hike in commodity cost. There was a gradual uptick in domestic T&D business. Karnataka, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Bihar are seeing good traction
 The civil business grew 34% YoY to | 665 crore, diversified in new growth areas with breakthrough orders in public space segment with maiden orders for construction of Tuticorin Airport and Srinagar High Court building. Also reinforced presence in industrial with orders in metals & mining, cement and FMCG segments, and expanded footprint in data centres as well
 The railway business witnessed growth of 11% YoY. The company will continue to bid in technologically enabled areas in metros such as metro and speed upgradation, ballastless track, etc, and sees a large tendering pipeline in railways in the longer term. Also, Railways are doing double digit margins. In electrification segment KEC is having 20% market share. Railways will be one of the growth drivers in coming years for KEC
 The company is targeting ~15% revenue growth and ~| 20,000 crore on order inflow. Margins will remain same in first half of FY23. From second half of FY23 onwards KEC is expecting improvement in margins
 A ~| 30000 crore in tenders in H1FY23 out of that for domestic T&D | 25000 crore from PGCIL and ~| 5000-6000 crore from SEB/private players
 Going forward railways and civil businesses are expected to continue their growth momentum as they expanded their portfolio in new and emerging segments

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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