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Jyothy Labs Ltd>
  • CMP : 421.6 Chg : 0.65 (0.15%)
  • Target : 205.0 (6.22%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

15 Nov 2022

Margins to partly recover; crude inflation still persists

About The Stock

Jyothy labs (JLL) is an FMCG company with a presence in fabric whiteners, detergents, dishwashing products, household insecticides (HI) & personal care products. It has leading brand Ujala in fabric whitener with 83.7% market share and a sizeable dish washing & HI business with mid-teens market share.

  • The company has 23 manufacturing facilities in India. Its pan-India distribution reach is close to 3.0 million outlets with direct reach of 1.0 million. Its major brands include Ujala & Henko in fabric care, Exo & Pril, in dishwashing, Margo in soaps and Maxo in HI categories
Q2FY23 Results

JLL posted sales growth of 11.8% led by 10% pricing growth.

  • Sales were up 11.8% YoY with strong growth in the fabric care segment
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 80.2 crore, up 19.5% YoY, with margins at 12.4%
  • Consequently, adjusted PAT was at ₹ 69.8 crore (up 64.7% YoY)
What should Investors do?

JLL’s share price has underperformed the FMCG index with mere 17% return (from ₹ 168 in November 2017 to ₹ 193 in November 2022).

  • We raise our FY23E & FY24E EPS estimate by 11.7% & 22.5%, respectively
  • We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value the stock at ₹ 205, valuing the business at 26x FY24 earnings.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • With softening of palm oil and polypropylene prices, gross margins are likely to improve. However, crude and related commodity still remain at elevated levels. We expect margins to partly recover to 14% levels by FY24 (against average of ~16% during FY17-20)
  • Dish washing & fabric wash segment driving growth with sustainable revenue growth (three-year CAGR of ~14%). We expect single digit volume growth in these segment, going forward
  • Despite efforts to shift sale from coils to liquid vaporisers in the HI segment, coils still remain 60% of the total volumes of the company. Growth as well as margins remain lacklustre in this segment
Alternate Stock Idea

We like TCPL in our FMCG coverage.

  • Strong innovation & premiumisation strategy in salt, tea, Sampann & Soulful in the Indian market are expected to drive sales & margins
  • We value the stock at ₹ 950 with a BUY rating

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR (FY17 to FY22) FY23E FY24E CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 1,768.9 1,665.4 1,885.0 2,166.3 5.9 2,482.0 2,689.4 11.4
EBITDA 285.8 249.8 316.7 249.5 -0.8 307.9 385.1 24.3
EBITDA Margin % 16.2 15.0 16.8 11.5 - 12.4 14.3 -
Adjusted Net Profit 193.2 161.3 210.3 156.1 -5.0 229.1 284.9 35.1
Adjusted EPS (|) 5.3 4.4 5.7 4.3 -5.0 6.2 7.8 35.1
P/E 36.6 43.9 33.7 45.3 - 30.9 24.8 -
RoNW % 22.6 21.7 22.5 16.6 - 23.0 26.8 -
RoCE (%) 28.6 24.3 26.0 18.7 - 26.2 31.3 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

  • JLL witnessed sales growth of 11.8% to | 646.4 crore led by pricing growth of ~11% and volume growth of ~1%. The de-growth in HI sales was due to lack of rains in north & east India adversely impacted overall volume growth. Excluding HI, volume growth was 5%

 

  • The high inflation is adversely impacting consumer sentiments specifically in rural regions. Given sales are largely driven by LUPs in rural regions, grammage reduction would have also impacted volumes in Q2

 

  • Fabric wash segment saw growth of 33.7% led by 20% volume growth & ~13% price hike. The company saw strong growth across portfolio of detergents, post wash as well as Ujala crisp & shine. Moreover, the company took a steep price hike in the last one year to pass on high inflation in crude & related products. On a three-year CAGR basis, segment sales grew 13.9%

 

  • Dish washing segment grew at slower pace of 5.6%. However, on a three-year CAGR basis, segment sales grew 13.7%. The company is gaining market share in the segment in both brands Exo & Pril. JLL has not taken a steep price increase in the dish washing brand (not as high as fabric care segment)

 

  • Personal care segment sales grew 10.8% in Q2 with similar growth on a three-year CAGR basis. The growth was led by 1% volume growth and ~10% pricing growth in Q2. LUPs are sustaining volumes in the segment

 

  • Frequent price hikes in the last one year adversely impacted volume growth. However, some commodities like soap, noodles prices have softened recently. The company is looking to pass on the benefit. JLL is trying to leverage tailwinds of naturals in this segment with Margo brand

 

  • Household insecticide (HI) segment witnessed a steep fall of 30.7% in sales mainly on account of less rains in the north and east of India during peak monsoon period. On a three-year CAGR basis, the segment sales have de-grown 4%

 

  • We believe the company is unable to drive overall sales of the HI segment, specifically coils sales. Coils still contributes 60% of volumes whereas liquid vaporisers (LVs) contribute 40%

 

  • The HI category witnessed 8% de-growth during the quarter. Given JLL’s HI sales is more skewed from north & east regions, the impact was more prominent for the company. Both coils and LVs sales were impacted

 

  • The company is continuously making losses in the HI segment. However, it is trying to drive growth of LVs and high ad-spends towards this leading to losses at the segment operating level

 

  • JLL is driving growth largely through LUPs in detergent with the contribution of ~35%. The price point of | 10 is working well in the rural region while larger packs are doing well in Modern stores. Moreover, increase in direct distribution network is also benefiting. The company is also driving sales of mid-price brands like ‘Mr white’ & ‘More light’

 

  • It is difficult to recoup lost business in the HI segment given Q2 along with Q4 is a large quarter for HI product sales. However, the company would be making efforts to drive growth in Q4

 

  • The commodity inflation trend has been mixed with a steep decline in palm oil and some packaging material (LDPE, Polypropylene) prices. However, caustic soda, soda ash & Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB) prices remain elevated

 

 

  • The company was able to maintain its last year’s gross margin with some relief in commodity costs and price hikes taken in the last one year. JLL cut marketing spends by 63 bps and overhead spends by 13 bps during the quarter

 

  • Operating profit grew 19.5% to | 80.2 crore with 80 bps jump in operating margin to 12.4%. Led by higher operating profit & exceptional income of |7 crore (write back of one-time settlement due to extinguishing indemnity pertaining to an erstwhile business transaction), net profit grew 64.7% to
    | 69.4 crore

 

  • Income tax rate is likely to remain at ~16-17% in FY23

 

  • Working capital days increased from 12 days in September 2021 to 28 days in September 2022 mainly due to higher inventory of HI products due to lower sales and overall high cost inventory due to price hikes. However, it is expected to remain at ~20-22 days in the long run 

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