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Just Dial Ltd>
  • CMP : 1,076.0 Chg : -7.75 (-0.72%)
  • Target : 900.0 (10.29%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

04 May 2022

Recovery to take time

About The Stock

Just Dial (JDL) generates revenues from advertisers on various subscription and fee-based packages.

  • Reliance Retail Ventures now holds a 67% stake in JDL
  • JDL’s launch of B2B platform will be a key revenue driver in the long run
Q4FY22

JDL reported weak numbers in Q4FY22.

  • Revenues grew 4.9% QoQ to ₹ 166.7 crore
  • Paid campaigns were up 5.5% QoQ while realisation was down -0.6% QoQ
  • Adjusted (ex-Esop) EBITDA loss was ₹ 80 lakh while adjusted margins were at -0.5%
What should Investors do?

JDL’s share price has grown by ~1.7x over the past five years (from ~₹ 503 in April 2017 to ~₹ 816 levels in April 2022).

  • We change our rating from BUY to HOLD
Target Price Valuation

We value JDL at ₹ 900 i.e. 23x P/E on FY24E EPS

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Covid and changing consumer behaviour have led to an increase in virtualisation of business. Enterprises now have an omni channel presence (in physical & digital world)
  • JDL will be a key beneficiary of this shift of advertising to digital medium and underpenetrated MSME (B2B) segment. The paid subscribers as a percentage of total MSME is just 1.5%
  • JDL’s B2B and B2C platforms are well placed to capture this demand leading to revenue CAGR of 22.1% over FY22-24E
  • Change in promoters could help drive growth higher
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from JDL, in our IT coverage we also like Affle.

  • Key beneficiary of digital advertising spend
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1,500

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 891.5 953.1 675.2 647.0 -2.1 882.3 964.4 22.1
EBITDA 228.9 272.9 154.9 -2.2 - 123.5 183.2 -
EBITDA Margins (%) 25.7 28.6 22.9 -0.3 - 14.0 19.0 -
Net Profit 206.9 272.3 214.2 70.8 - 284.7 327.1 -
EPS (|) 31.9 42.0 33.0 8.5 - 34.1 39.1 -
P/E 25.6 19.4 24.7 96.3 - 24.0 20.9 -
RoNW (%) 20.7 21.1 16.9 2.0 - 7.8 8.6 -
RoCE (%) 27.4 25.7 19.0 2.5 - 9.8 10.9 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of result and conference call highlights

  • The company reported revenue of |166.7 crore for the quarter, which grew 4.9% QoQ while it was down 5.1% YoY. Paid campaigns were at 461,495 which grew 5.5% QoQ while realisation declined 0.6% QoQ
  • JDL reported an EBITDA loss of | 6.1 crore while adjusted to Esop charges, EBITDA loss was at | 80 lakh. The company reported PAT of | 22 crore due to higher other income of | 35.2 crore
  • The company indicated that it has withdrawn all discounts (flexibility in terms of activation of campaigns as per customer’s convenient timelines). JDL also launched monthly payment plans to offer flexibility to clients (not looking to tie them up for longer period) and indicated that 71% of the paid campaigns in Q4 were on this plan vs. 23-24% a year ago
  • JDL indicated that EBITDA loss in the quarter was on account of revenues, which were deferred in nature (signups in the last few quarters) while the costs (in terms of elevated investments in manpower/technology) hits P&L immediately. The company indicated that realisable value (which is new campaigns signup + deferred revenue) for the quarter was |230-232 crore which is now almost equal to pre-pandemic level. Hence, they are hopeful of recovery in revenues, going forward
  • The company indicated that they would continue to invest in manpower and advertising in FY23 as well. JDL indicated that advertising spend in FY23 would be in the range of | 60-65 crore (50-60% of the spend towards digital in core business) and would have an impact on EBITDA margins in FY23. The company expects long term steady state EBITDA margins in the business to be in the range of 25-30%. The company maintained that its current focus is on recovery of the core business and it would like continue to chase growth
  • JDL continue to maintain that JD would continue to operate as an independent entity while they are in active discussion with the parent RRVL for synergy benefits with parent’s apps. They also indicated that they would like to replicate success of some the apps on Jio Mart (i.e. reseller plan on their platform) The company continues to see good progress on JD Mart and has a dedicated team for monetisation on the platform. The company expects higher contribution from B2B business (25% of the mix currently). JD Shopping currently does not have transaction facility, which would be available from Q1FY23 end or start of Q2FY23
  • The company maintained that it would continue to operate as a third party seller and will not hold its own inventory, which is in line with new retail policy, which is being worked out
 

Terms & conditions and other disclosures

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Sameer Pardikar, MBA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.

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Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stocks price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a companys fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports. 

Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. 

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RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according -to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5%to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

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